The Orioles skipper has come under fire for his approach vs. LHPs. Looking at the O’s next five match ups with lefty starters, we offer some advice on how to improve his lineup construction.
It’s 11 games into the 2025 season, and the torches and pitchforks are already out regarding Brandon Hyde’s handling of the Orioles’ lineup. The latest inciting incident? The decision to bench Cedric Mullins and Jackson Holliday against the Royals’ Kris Bubic. The Kansas City lefty is a well-known reverse splits pitcher, giving up a career .301 average against left-handed batters.
Instead of leaning into that history and keeping the hot-hitting Mullins and Holliday in the lineup, Hyde turned to Jorge Mateo in center field and Gary Sánchez at DH. The unorthodox team management ended up costing the Orioles the game. A Mateo misread in CF turned what should have been the second out of first into a Bobby Witt “triple”, extending the inning and allowing the Royals to race out to a 3-0 lead. Offensively, Mateo and Sánchez went a combined 0-5 with 3 Ks.
Hyde isn’t making it easier for himself with how he responds when pressed about his lineup decisions. When asked on Sunday about the decision to start Mateo specifically, Hyde stated that “[The Orioles] acquired and signed right-handed guys to face left-handed starters and we’re gonna give them an opportunity, especially early in the year here.”
This comes after there was talk in spring training of giving Holliday, Kjerstad and other left-handers a chance to prove they could hang in there with opposing southpaws. That’s not to say Kjerstad, Holliday or other lefties should be an automatic inclusion against pitchers like Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans. However, as Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner put it, Holliday and Kjerstad specifically need more opportunities to prove they’re not just platoon players.
Hyde’s approach to lineup construction also seems to fly in the face of the analytically minded regime that built this roster. While I can’t pretend to know the exact numbers that Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal use when deciding what players to bring to Baltimore, I have to imagine it’s more complicated than just blindly selecting right-handed bats to face left-handed pitchers. Hyde’s approach very well may be more well-thought-out, too, but his decisions don’t paint that picture.
The O’s will face two more right-handers to close out their road series in Arizona, but will get a chance to face more southpaws in their upcoming matchups with the Blue Jays, Guardians, Reds and Nationals. Like the teams that employ them, none of the lefties the Orioles stand to face in these series are upper-echelon starters.
In theory, some of these matchups provide the perfect opportunity for Hyde to give his players the chance to prove themselves. So, as we look forward to the O’s next opportunities to take their hacks against left-handed pitchers, consider these my official recommendations to Brandon Hyde on how he should construct his lineups.
Starter: Blue Jays’ Easton Lucas (vs. TOR, 4/12)
Recommendation: Start Holliday, Kjerstad and all your best lefties
The O’s next opportunity against a southpaw will give Brandon Hyde an immediate do-over for his mistakes against Bubic. Lucas is even more of an extreme reverse splits guy than Bubic. The 28-year-old gives up a .342 career average against LHBs and lefties post an OPS that is 183 points higher than righties.
Lucas’ pitch mix also gives Kjerstad his best chance to do damage against a fellow lefty. Lucas features a changeup, cutter and slider as his secondary pitches. Last season, against both cutters and changeups, Silent J put up an OPS over 1.200 against both cutters and changeups.
This year he’s batting 1.000 on cutters and sliders, meaning Lucas’ secondary pitches are all pitch types Kjerstad sees well. It certainly becomes more difficult when those cutters and sliders are breaking away from Kjerstad, but Lucas still provides a good matchup for the O’s power hitter to test himself.
Lucas also pumps in a bunch of fastballs, throwing his four-seamer on 55% of his pitches. That’s good news for both Mullins and Holliday, who are crushing fastballs early on. Holliday leads active Orioles with a 1.250 slugging percentage against four-seamers, while Mullins is hitting .429 against heaters.
Starter: Guardians’ Logan Allen (vs. CLE, 4/15)
Recommendation: Keep the lefties on the bench
Allen is a traditional splits pitcher who throws a sweeper as his primary pitch. Of Orioles left-handed hitters, only Ryan O’Hearn has a hit against a sweeper this season. With Ryan Mountcastle off to a hot start this season, O’Hearn is unlikely to see the field against a tough lefty. This should be the ideal opportunity for Hyde to trot out the excessively right-handed lineup, though perhaps with Gunnar Henderson at DH, Jorge Mateo at SS and Cedric Mullins staying in CF for his defense.
Starters: Reds’ Nick Lodolo (vs CIN, 4/20), Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore and/or Mitchell Parker (at WAS 4/22-24)
Recommendation: Start Mullins and Holliday, bench Kjerstad and O’Hearn
The three remaining lefties the O’s are likely to see in their upcoming schedule are all fastball-heavy guys. Lodolo throws 55% sinkers or four-seamers, while Gore and Parker both hover around 50% usage on just their four-seam fastballs. Gore is another reverse splits guy, but the difference is more marginal with lefties receiving only a 21-point boost to average and a 61-point boost to OPS. Gore is also the toughest of the next five lefties the Orioles are set to face, with 25 strikeouts in just 17 innings this season.
Mullins is a must-start vs. Lodolo, as he’s shown proclivity for handling left-on-left sinkers, including hitting .538 with a 1.077 OPS against such pitches in 2023. Though his track record is neither as long nor as successful against left-on-left velocity, Holliday is still at his best when facing fastball-heaving pitchers and should therefore get a crack at this trio.
Keeping those two in the lineup likely means no place for Jorge Mateo. However, given that the speedster has started his season 0-11 with 4 Ks, it’s not the worst idea to give him some more time on the bench. Kjerstad only has 21 left-on-left ABs in his career, but early returns suggest he’s ok at handling sinkers and really only excels at hitting left-on-left sliders. It might make some sense to give Silent J a chance against Gore, who throws his slider to lefties about 50% of the time. However, the matchup with the Nationals’ ace probably won’t be a big confidence builder for the 26-year-old and Hyde would be best served picking his spots for Kjerstad in other games.