Seranthony Domínguez could be a valuable piece to an improved 2025 bullpen
After being traded from the Phillies on July 26, Seranthony Domínguez started his Orioles career with three straight scoreless appearances. He struck out four in those three innings while pumping a high-90s fastball, and for a moment it seemed like he could be the answer to the bullpen’s troubles.
But then came the home runs. And the walks.
It seemed that he gave up one or the other in nearly every appearance, and the home runs especially hurt the team. In one memorably brutal stretch, Domínguez allowed a home run in three straight mid-August appearances as the Orioles tried desperately to cling to their AL East lead. The Orioles ended up losing two of those games by one run.
Domínguez’s ability to strike batters out helps him cover his flaws in the walks and home runs department. In just 22.2 innings with the Orioles, he walked nine batters and allowed six home runs. But he struck out an impressive 28.
That’s a very small sample size but it is not an outlier. Despite pitching to a better-than-average ERA in 2022 and 2023, his WHIP told a different story. It ballooned to 1.400 in 2023 and ended up at 1.244 last year between the Orioles and Phillies.
In 19 of his 25 games with the Orioles, Domínguez allowed a baserunner via walk or hit. For a late-inning, high-leverage reliever, that is just too much adventure. I prefer my relief pitchers with less drama. Honestly, I hate the walks. But if he could get the home runs under control he’d be a lot more dominant.
And don’t get me wrong, Domínguez seems like the kind of pitcher who should be dominant. He’s got the velocity on his fastball and his slider is impressive. But he has not been successful at getting batters to chase his pitches. And when the hit his pitches they are going in the air, not on the ground.
Domínguez came to the Orioles with an $8 million option for 2025 and I was a little surprised when they picked it up. I can only conclude that the pitching coaches believe they can get better out of Domínguez than he showed in 2024. I sure hope that will be the case.
The ZiPS projections for Domínguez project him to put up an fWAR of 0.3, which is not great. It would, however, be an improvement over his -0.3 in just 25 games last season. Here are additional ZiPS projections:
59 G, 9.64 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.70 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.27 WHIP
On one hand, these numbers are mostly better than what we saw from Domínguez last season, both with the Phillies and Orioles. However, that doesn’t make them impressive. A 3.70 ERA out of the bullpen is not ideal, even if it would have been middle of the pack on the 2024 Orioles.
Let’s focus on HR/9. An HR/9 of 0.96 would mark a major improvement over the past few seasons. Last year it sat at 1.8 overall (2.4 with the Orioles) and in 2023 he had a 1.1 mark. In his best season to date, 2022, Domínguez had a K/9 of just 0.70.
We’re back on the small sample size train, but if he had pitched to a 0.96 HR/9 with the Orioles last year, things would have looked a whole lot better for him here. That works out to 2.3 HR instead of six.
The case for the over
In 120 games from 2023-24, Domínguez has coughed up 19 long balls. That’s good for 1.6 HR/9, well above 0.96. Unlike my continual focus on just 25 games earlier in this article, 120 games isn’t such a small sample size.
You have to go back three seasons to find a time when Domínguez wasn’t giving up home runs at a high rate.
The case for the under
In 135 games before 2023, Domínguez had a very nice HR/9 of 0.7. 2022 was a long time ago, but he has proven that he can keep the ball in the ballpark over a sustained period. The Orioles saw something in him worth picking up that option this year, so maybe they can unlock that potential.