The O’s offense has been flailing, and the organization doesn’t have any answers. But that doesn’t mean their playoff chances are sunk.
Sunday was yet another example of what has become a familiar sight for these Orioles. They lost 2-0 to a seemingly inferior Rays team because their offense just could not get going. While not the only culprit, a lineup that runs cold is one of the main reasons that the team’s pace has slowed so dramatically since early June. Back then, 110 wins seemed possible, if unlikely. Now, they will feel fortunate to eclipse 90 wins and squeak into the postseason.
The Orioles have not scored more than two runs in a game since Tuesday, when they whooped the White Sox 9-0. Unsurprisingly, the Orioles’ record in those four games is not good (1-3). Prior the six-game run against the lowly White Sox and Rockies, the Orioles had scored four runs or less in five consecutive games against playoff-caliber opponents (Astros, Dodgers). Sustained struggles like that will lead to another early playoff exit.
On its surface, the problem is simple. The Orioles are not getting ideal production from several key spots in their lineup. Since August 1, Adley Rutschman has a 69 wRC+, Jackson Holliday has an 80 wRC+, and Ryan O’Hearn has an 86 wRC+. On top of that, there are injuries to Jordan Westburg (hand fracture), Ryan Mountcastle (left wrist sprain), Ramón Urías (right ankle sprain), and Heston Kjerstad (concussion). Their absences hurt to varying degrees, but it would be better to have all of them than not.
Of course, in order to solve the problem, the Orioles will need to dig deeper. So far, they have come up empty.
Brandon Hyde was asked on Sunday if he would think about making drastic changes to the lineup. He responded, “I think I’ve done all those things.”
Hyde has brought Henderson back into the leadoff spot this week, a callback to early in the season when the MVP was sparking the offense. Last month, he started James McCann at catcher three straight days when Rutschman was dealing with a back injury (it also could have served as a mental reset for the backstop). Most of the day-to-day fiddling takes place at the back of the lineup, where guys regularly move around the final four lineup spots or so.
These sorts of things would probably be considered tweaks rather than seismic changes. But there is only so much Hyde can do with the guys at his disposal. He could push Rutschman to the nine hole to theoretically “take the pressure off.” But that is just going to move everyone up a slot, and it’s not as if there are many known commodities raking either.
The Orioles have gotten nice production from Austin Slater (132 wRC+) and Emmanuel Rivera (135 wRC+) since the trade deadline. But these are guys that are being put into positions that play into their strengths. It is rare to see either one play a full nine-inning game. So their outcomes are not exactly replicable for the entire roster.
There would seemingly be little harm in Hyde playing a goofy lineup one day, just to see what happens. Put the hot-hitting Cedric Mullins second in the order. If McCann has good numbers against a certain starting pitcher, let him bat cleanup. As mentioned earlier, he could let a DH’ing Rutschman fight his way out of the nine hole. It is entirely possible that would produce a win, and maybe it loosens things up a bit in the clubhouse. But given what we know about every player on the roster in terms of historical performance, it’s not a long-term strategy.
The overly simplistic solution is that the team’s best players need to play better, and the Orioles have to get a touch more healthy by the time the postseason rolls around. There is at least some hope of that second point.
Westburg is fielding and taking swings with one hand while his other hand continues to heal. His late September return appears to be on track. Urías is off of crutches and has told the media he should be back by October. Kjerstad is currently on a rehab assignment, which is certainly a positive sign. Mountcastle is the lone holdout. The team still doesn’t have a timeline for him as his recovery has been frustratingly slow. But on the whole, things are moving in the right direction for the team. Now, everyone else just needs to stay off the trainer’s table. Fingers crossed!
But perhaps the most under-evaluated aspect of the Orioles and their postseason outlook is not their lack of offense, but rather the struggles of the teams around them.
No one is taking charge of the American League. For all of their struggles the last three months, the Orioles are only one half game away from the lead in both AL East and the AL at-large. Since June 21, the Orioles have lost literally zero ground in their AL East position. And they still have three games left against the team ahead of them for both, the New York Yankees. If the Orioles win just one of those games, they will have the head-to-head tiebreaker, possibly a huge advantage if things stay this close.
The entire junior circuit is flawed. On paper, you would probably say the Yankees are favorites due to the quality at the very top of their roster. But the Orioles certainly have more depth, and have at times this season looked like the superior club overall.
But it is going to require their lineup to be at least a tiny bit better by October. That is clearly not a guarantee, and the club does not appear to have any answers. They have three weeks to find one.