The young lefty had an up-and-down debut season, but a strong September and an eye-opening spring should give the Orioles confidence in his ability to step in for the injured Rodriguez.
For the second spring in a row, the Orioles got bad news on the pitching front. Last year, Kyle Bradish and John Means were revealed to have arm issues that lingered and needed more time to heal. This year, it was announced that Grayson Rodriguez was dealing with elbow discomfort and will miss—at least—the start of the season.
Now, as important as Rodriguez is to the Orioles’ 2025 plans, this news does not impact their status as a contender in the American League too much. Rodriguez has the tools to be an ace, but has not performed as such just yet, and injuries are almost baked into the cake for him at this point. Of course, if it does prove to be something serious, that could change the math. In any case, you can be sure that other teams on the junior circuit—especially the Yankees, who are suddenly dealing with serious injuries of their own—will feel no pity for their rivals.
Fortunately, it does feel like the Orioles are better prepared to deal with the injury bug this season than they were in 2024. Not only have they added (hopefully) dependable veterans in free agency, but they also now have internal solutions with valuable experience and proof that they are getting better. Look no further than Cade Povich.
Povich was thrust onto the big league stage last year amidst a rash of injuries up and down the rotation. He was a fringe “Top 100” type of prospect with Triple-A experience, but seemed to fall short of truly graduating from the level. The reality was that the Orioles needed somebody to throw major league innings, and he was the best option.
The results were uneven. His debut saw him toss 5.1 innings and give up five runs to the Blue Jays, although that line was slightly cruel to his actual performance. He bounced back to have a 2.53 ERA over his next four starts, including six shutout innings against a good Braves team.
Then the calendar flipped to July, and things started to crumble. Povich was lit up by the Athletics; one inning, eight runs, all earned. His next five starts weren’t as brutal but still rough overall. Across the next 24.1 innings he had a 6.66 ERA and a .343 batting average against. His season ERA rose to 6.58. That all happened with a demotion back to Triple-A in-between.
It was in September where Povich rediscovered his groove. Starting against the woeful White Sox helped a bit as a well. He began the month with 7.1 scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts against the ChiSox. And then in four games the Red Sox, Tigers, Tigers again, and Twins he compiled a 3.54 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 20.1 innings. That’ll play!
Everything was at its best in September for Povich. Opponents hit just .162 against him. His strikeout rate jumped to 29.9%. He got his walks per nine down to an acceptable rate (2.60). And his WHIP was all the way down to 0.87.
It doesn’t seem like it happened by accident. Povich had a little extra juice on his fastball (season best average of 92.7 mph), and he used it more than at any point in the season. That allowed his swing and miss rate to jump up to 26.5%, another season best. He was also throwing more strikes, which kept him ahead in the count, and made him less predictable. In short: it seems like he was told to challenge hitters and he did just that.
For a rookie season that had gone a bit sideways, that final month had to be a welcome relief to both the Orioles and Povich himself. He proved that the league had not solved him. He could get hitters out still. And that could now serve as a springboard into his first full offseason where he felt like there was a chance to make an Opening Day roster.
After an offseason where the Orioles added two older starters, it seemed like Povich would be pushed out of the rotation conversation to begin the season. But Rodriguez’s injury, paired with Povich’s performance so far this spring suddenly makes him the likely replacement.
Povich has made two appearances this spring. Over five total innings he has seven strikeouts, one walk, one hit, no runs. Baseball Reference pegs the quality of opponents he has faced in the Grapefruit League at 7.9 out of 10, which is essentially a Triple-A squad. So take the outcomes with a grain of salt, but at the very least it represents a continuation of the successful formula he developed at the end of last season.
In addition to Povich’s impressive performances as of late, what is also working in his favor is the calendar. Major league quality starting pitcher is not usually uncovered in mid March. Those signings and trades were made sometime in the last four months. Mike Elias has even said that a trade of some significance is unlikely right now. Whomever is going to plug into the rotation is probably in camp with the Orioles already.
The only other obvious option would be Albert Suárez, who was the unheralded hero for the Orioles a season ago. But the team has been trying to get him into a bullpen role for quite a while now. They moved him there a few different times in 2024, only to need him as a starter again. His spring has been at the opposite end of the spectrum to Povich. Over eight innings he has allowed eight runs on 13 hits, five walks, and three strikeouts. Spring can’t be scouted from the box score, but that is not ideal. Plus, with the injury to Andrew Kittredge, the O’s might want Suárez as a reliever more than ever before.
There are still more than two weeks until Opening Day. Things can change. But it’s hard to ignore that Povich is trending in the right direction, and he has the ceiling that Suárez and others in camp lack. At the very least, the Orioles should feel confident in handing him the ball every fifth day. He might even surprise some folks and hang onto his spot by the time Rodriguez is ready to come off the IL.