The former top prospect had a rough rookie year, but there is plenty of confidence throughout the organization that he will bounce back in the season ahead.
The Orioles were ready and hoping for Jackson Holliday to be a sensation in 2024. It felt like the team had purposely left voids at second base and atop the lineup for the rookie to fill. While no prospect is a sure thing, Holliday was the closest thing to it.
And then…the struggles happened.
Holliday was called up on April 10 and inserted right into the starting lineup. In 10 games that month, the Oklahoma native went 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts and two walks. It was brutal. He looked overmatched, whiffing a ton and hitting loads of ground balls.
Scuffling as a rookie is to be expected, and the Orioles are no strangers to it. Many of the club’s talented youngsters have had significant trouble during their initial taste of big league action only to eventually bounce back and become productive members of the team. Surely, they were hoping for a similar outcome for Holliday.
But it didn’t happen within the 2024 season, although there were bright spots. Holliday was sent back to Triple-A from late April until late July. When he returned, he had a strong first week, going 9-for-24 with four home runs, two walks, and seven strikeouts. Was he fixed? Not quite. Over the next 18 games he had a .442 OPS and looked a lot like the guy that got sent down in April.
That was how much of the second half would go for Holliday. He’d have a nice weekend of games, and then look overmatched for the 10 games that followed. Overall, his outcomes were better than earlier in the season. Across 50 games in the second half, he hit .218/.285/.365, hardly a star-level of production, but far better than the .059/.111/.059 line he had in April.
Holliday did make the team’s postseason roster, but would not see game action. It speaks volumes that a team struggling to score runs that time of year—one run over 18 innings in the Wild Card round—never once turned to their wunderkind.
But that poor debut has not dampened the Orioles’ excitement for Holliday overall. They didn’t look to trade him this offseason. They didn’t sign anyone to block his path at second base. He’s their guy.
It seems like a new article or piece of news has come out each day throughout spring training to talk about the transformation of Holliday. He got stronger and ate ground beef. He re-learned how to run. He’s practicing at shortstop again. He’s planning to steal 20 bases. And oh look, he’s crushing the baseball too.
It makes sense to focus so much on Holliday. The Orioles should be a good team again in 2025, but they didn’t have a ton of interesting storylines going into the spring. Holliday’s struggles are an obvious area to dig into.
If the Orioles offense is going to find another level and show more consistency in 2025, a lot of that will come down to Holliday emerging as a table-setter and disruptor on the bases. The Orioles are going to give him every chance to become just that.
The projections
- ZiPS: .231/.335/.383, 15 home runs, nine stolen bases, 110 wRC+, 3.1 WAR
- Steamer: .236/.337/.377, 10 home runs, seven stolen bases, 109 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
The difference in the projections comes from the number of games played. ZiPS has Holliday at 135 games, basically an everyday player that sits once or twice in a week against a left-handed starter. Steamer puts him at 105 games, providing some wiggle room for a potential demotion or IL stint.
Either outcome would be a nice step forward from his rookie campaign, although the Steamer projection would be a bit disappointing overall.
Neither system is buying that Holliday will be a big-time base stealer in 2025. He did swipe 24 bags on 33 attempts in 2023 and showed off elite foot speed a season ago, so it seems within his reach.
The case for the over
Holliday was the top prospect in the sport for a reason. He comes from a major league family and ticked all of the boxes in the minor leagues that indicate future success. In this case, it’s OK to weigh all of those factors over a bad 60-game stint last summer.
It should also be said that Holliday was not poor in all respects last year. He showed off plenty of foot speed and did a nice job in the field, playing a position that he did not have a ton of experience at prior to 2024. Playing above-average defense and swiping a few bases gives him wiggle room at the plate to be good rather than great and still be a really productive player overall.
The case for the under
In addition to his poor showing in MLB last year, Holliday was not quite as superhuman during his time in the minors. He struck out more than ever before and saw his batting average slip. Don’t get it wrong. He was still very good at Triple-A, and an obvious major league hitter, but it was not as dominant as prior seasons.
There is no question that the Orioles will still view Holliday as their second baseman, but he could head down the platoon path in 2025. Jorge Mateo sounds like he will be healthy early in the season, and we know he rakes against left-handed pitching. The duo could form a speedy, athletic combination at the keystone. That would be fine for the Orioles, but not ideal for Holliday’s stats.