Finally healthy, Means diced up the Red lineup on Saturday and looked like a timely upgrade for the Orioles rotation.
The return of John Means this past weekend may not have been as highly anticipated as that of Kyle Bradish a few days prior, but the results were even better. Over seven shutout innings the 31-year-old southpaw allowed just three hits, struck out eight, and did not issue any walks. It was a dominant performance that may have also reflected his well-earned veteran sensibilities.
Means is one of the the longest tenured members of the team, having pitched in each of the Orioles last seven seasons. It doesn’t always feel that way because over the last two years he has appeared in just six total games, the result of Tommy John surgery, setbacks during rehab, and a delayed start to 2024. But he is right there with the likes of Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, and Cedric Mullins as guys that have been through the depths of an organizational rebuild and come out the other side.
Just add it to the list of extreme career phases that Means has already undergone. He beat the odds to become a big leaguer as an 11th-round draft pick. As a rookie in 2019 he became an all-star. He entered 2020 with a big velocity gain (thanks to some mattress throwing practice), but struggled with home runs. In 2021, he tossed the best no-hitter in big league history. And then in 2022, just as the Orioles were ready to turn the corner as a franchise, he got hurt. Not to mention the various physical setbacks he has had since then, including a rocky month of rehab that had some questioning his return altogether.
But the important thing is that he is back, and not a moment too soon. Although the Orioles rotation wasn’t exactly in crisis, the recent injuries to Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells, paired with the uncertainty around Bradish’s long-term health left them in need of an immediate upgrade. A healthy Means is exactly that, especially if he can pitch anywhere close to the level he provided on Saturday in Cincinnati.
The most important pitch for Means is his changeup. That has been the case for his entire big league career. Although he made his debut late in the 2018 season, it wasn’t until 2019 that he truly came into focus for Orioles fans. On March 31 of that year, Means came on in relief of a poor Dylan Bundy start. Means would stick around for 3.1 innings that day, heavily featuring his change. The offering made up 46% percent of his pitches and had a whiff rate of 54% that day. The Bronx Bombers looked flummoxed, the O’s won the game, and Means would work his way into the rotation just a few weeks later.
Years later, the dominance of his changeup remains. It was Means’ most-used pitch in his 2024 debut, accounting for 36% of his pitches. Of the 16 swings he got, eight were whiffs, a 50% rate. The pitch is an equalizer against right-handed batters, especially when Means can locate it down and away.
The characteristics of the pitch have shifted over time. As the years go on, Means is getting less spin on the ball and, until this weekend, it also experienced continual velocity drops. At the same time, he is getting more chases on it, going from 33.7% chase rate in 2021 to 45% against Cincy.
The one pitch that may be more interesting to watch, however, is Means’ four-seam fastball. He threw just 22 of them on Saturday, making up 25.9% of his total pitches. That was the lowest fastball usage of his entire career in a single game.
There could be several reasons for that. One is just how right-handed the Reds lineup was that day. Means faced 23 batters, 21 of them were right-handed (or switch hitters hitting from the right side). In that instance, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to load up on fastballs when you have a killer change like Means does.
And of course, it could be a reaction to Means not having the sort of velocity he once did. Back in 2020, after all of that mattress throwing in quarantine, he averaged 93.8 mph on the pitch, getting up into the high 90s occasionally. On Saturday he sat at 91.8 mph, right in line with where his fastball was in 2023 and ‘22, but a few ticks below his career peak. Means has been inching away from his four-seamer for several years now, so this could also be a continuation of that trend.
The four-seamer worked well enough for Means in his season debut. Its purpose is not to blow hitters away, but to play well with his changeup and keep hitters honest. In that regard, it was outstanding.
If Means is going to complete his transition into a full-on finesse lefty, he will need to lean on more than just his change. Perhaps we were provided a glimpse of that this weekend as well. His slider was prominent. He used it more in this game than he has in any single outing since his rookie season in 2019. And he might be turning to his knuckle curve more as well. It accounted for 16.5% of his pitches on Saturday. The most he has ever used it across an entire season was 16.4% in 2021, although there have been individual games in which it has been more of a feature.
Obviously, we will need more than one game’s worth of data before we make any serious analysis that Means is a new pitcher. But this was one inspiring performance, especially compared to where he was late in 2023 when it never really felt like Means was right. While the top level numbers were fine, the peripherals were a tad scary.
Across four starts late last year, Means had just 3.80 strikeouts per nine innings and a whiff rate of 16.4%. A lot of balls were being put in play, and yet he had just a .130 BABIP. That is a recipe for regression. On Saturday, he had the Reds whiffing 43.2% of the time and a slightly more realistic BABIP of .200, still much lower than his career .240 BABIP, but at least closer to reality.
Again, these are small sample sizes compared to even smaller ones. We shouldn’t overreact one way or another. But in this instance, that is all we have to go on for a pitcher that has played so little these last few years.
It wasn’t all that long ago that Means was the de facto ace of this Orioles staff. Time has marched on without him, and he has been usurped in that role by others on the roster. But you had better believe that if Means is healthy he is going to do everything he can to be handed the ball to start a playoff game for the organization he has been a part of for nearly a decade. In order to earn that distinction he will need to out-pitch several others that have done more in recent years. But if that debut is any indication, the veteran is more than capable of doing just that.