The Orioles speedster had his season cut short last year due to an elbow injury. Now he faces an uphill battle to earn his roster spot back.
The 2024 season was pretty rough for Orioles infielder Jorge Mateo. The year started with Brandon Hyde handing full-time SS duties to Gunnar Henderson, forcing Mateo off his best position and over to 2B. Early on that move was promising; through the first two months of the season, Mateo’s average was hovering around .250 while he showed some power with 16 XBHs. Always the speed demon, Mateo also got off to a hot start on the basepaths, swiping 10 bases by end of May and putting him on pace for another 30+ steal season.
Then, at the beginning of June, injuries started to derail Mateo’s season. Mateo went on the IL for the first time on June 3, after an accidental bonk on the head from Cedric Mullins in the on-deck circle left him with a concussion.
Mateo would return two weeks later, but was never the same player. From when he returned on June 11 until the All-Star break, Mateo hit only .214 while struggling to get on base. The speedster then had his season end prematurely in the first series after the break. Mateo collided with Gunnar Henderson as both slid to get a ground ball, which resulted in an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.
The former AL stolen base king now comes into the 2025 season with more questions than answers. General manager Mike Elias already confirmed that Mateo will start the season on the IL as he continues to recover from elbow surgery. Where he fits on the roster, once healthy, is less certain now than it’s ever been.
The current assumption is that Jackson Holliday will be the Opening Day 2B, with Jordan Westburg sliding to second and Ramón Urías at third against LHPs. The additions of Tyler O’Neill, Ramon Laureano and Dylan Carlson also make it unlikely that Mateo will get ABs against lefties as an outfielder.
That’s not to say there’s not a place for Mateo’s skillset on the roster. He still has top-of-the-scale speed and offers infield defense with some outfield flexibility. He’s also undoubtedly one of the Orioles’ best hitters against left-handed pitchers. Last season, before the injuries ended his year, he posted a .799 OPS against lefties. The only question is whether he can be so good against lefties to keep Urías off the field against LHPs (and maybe off the roster entirely).
ZiPs expects Mateo to return to his 2023 levels of playing time, projecting him to get 350 plate appearances and play in a total of 114 games. The rest of the projections are in line with a part-time player:
.232 avg, 18 2Bs, 7 HRs, 47 Rs, 36 RBIs, 23 SB
The .232 average would also be a career high for a full season with the Orioles. However, FanGraphs may be slightly low when it comes to the speedster’s base stealing numbers. The last time Mateo had a full season, even in similarly limited playing time, he was able to put up 32 steals. Mateo will always be defined, first and foremost, by his abilities on the basepaths, so we’ll focus on that part of his projection.
The case for the over
Mateo’s roster spot is probably tied to either Urías or Laureano’s early season performance. If either or both struggle to begin the year, it’s easy to imagine Mateo taking their roster spot once he’s eligible to come off the IL.
If the soon to be 30-year-old can find his way onto the roster, expect him to play every game against left-handers. If he can equal his .311 OBP against lefties from last season, he should get plenty of opportunities to rack up steals. Should Mateo make an April debut, it feels like a pretty safe bet that he’ll top 23 stolen bases.
The case for the under
The fact that Mateo won’t start the season on the roster means there’s a chance he never earns much of a role in Baltimore this season. Urías or Laureano could both get off to a hot start and leave Mateo blocked from returning to the O’s. Coby Mayo could also start tearing the cover off the ball in Norfolk and put himself at the head of the queue for next right-handed bat to be called up.
While having Mateo’s speed on the roster would be a nice bonus, Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias are not going to remove someone who’s hitting well just to get his speed on the team. The fact is, if there’s no definitive weak link on the roster, the front office won’t go out of its way to get Mateo onto the roster.