Akin rebounded from an injury-interrupted struggle in 2023 to post some solid, if low-leverage, numbers this season.
There is no getting around that the changing fortunes for the Orioles bullpen are part of what led the team to ten fewer wins in the 2024 season and having to settle for a wild card berth. A year ago, the O’s had the fifth-best bullpen by ERA in MLB, at 3.55. This year, they were 23rd, with a 4.22 ERA. Keegan Akin was not part of this failure by any means, with a case to be made that he is the best Orioles reliever who pitched for most of the season.
This is as much a surprising (to me) statement of Akin’s quality as it is a reflection of how much some of the other relievers had seasons that did not live up to hopes for them. Only a year ago, Akin was something of a disaster in the bullpen, with Akin having a 6.85 ERA at the end of June. At that point, the team placed him on the injured list with lower back discomfort and he was not activated for the remainder of the season.
This had all the hallmarks of an injury where you had to wonder how much of a real injury was really there. I call this a “stepped in a pothole” injury, after then-GM Dan Duquette placed Ubaldo Jiménez on the IL and explained that he had rolled his ankle stepping out of his car into a pothole. Did Duquette personally wield the jackhammer to create that pothole? We’ll never know.
Once someone reaches the pothole point, as it seems Akin did last year, I expect nothing from them ever again. That Akin seemed to have a bullpen spot locked down for the season was, in March, something for me to dread rather than something for me to find exciting. Yet here we are at season’s end and Akin not only endured where other holdovers like Mike Baumann and Dillon Tate failed their way out, but he’s stepped in to be one of the key reliable guys in the bullpen.
There were some signs of good things coming even in the midst of all of the struggles a year ago. While Akin struggled his way to a disastrous ERA in 2023, the more predictive statistic of FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which aims to measure only what’s under a pitcher’s control, came in at 2.96.
That’s because Akin had a great strikeout rate, did a good job limiting walks, and only gave up two home runs over 23.2 innings. Yet he got completely hammered, with 13.3 hits per nine innings. He had an almost-unbelievable BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .434 when the league average was only .295.
My usual feeling about these kinds of peripheral measures is that once a guy has an ERA over 5, I don’t care too much about the excuses about what could have been better. The results are so bad that I just don’t believe in the idea that improvement could be coming. Yet Akin has managed to do it. He improved on the strikeout rate, cut the already-good walk rate, and kept the home run rate about the same, all while throwing more than triple the innings that he did a year ago. Maybe that back issue was actually connected to Akin allowing a 9+ ERA and .921 OPS in June last year.
As far as FIP was concerned, Akin was almost the same pitcher: 2.99. It was a world of difference in the actual results, with Akin slashing his ERA more than in half. With those kinds of results, of course he stayed in the bullpen all season, and he finished with a 3.32 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. If you pitch for 66 games and allow fewer than one baserunner per inning, you’re probably going to do okay.
Among Orioles pitchers, only Danny Coulombe had a lower WHIP for the season, and he didn’t even throw 30 innings this year. Yennier Cano and Jacob Webb had ERAs that were lower in the 3s. They also clearly had more of the team’s trust. Akin was mostly used in games where the Orioles were already losing. The team was 26-40 when Akin pitched. For Webb, they were 38-22, and for Cano, that record was 54-16.
It’s going to be interesting to see if the Orioles choose to change that up heading into next season. Akin seems like he has earned the chance for more high-leverage spots, certainly moreso than fellow lefty Cionel Pérez has done.
The basic problem for Akin, and for the 2024 Orioles bullpen generally, is that if your best guy has an ERA slightly over 3 and a WHIP slightly under 1, that’s not all that good any more. Even if Akin was guaranteed to post the exact same numbers next season, which is not a guarantee for any reliever, what is that worth? Most of the top contending teams have two or three guys who are doing at least that well. The Cleveland Guardians, at the head of the pack, have five different relief pitchers with an ERA under 2 and a WHIP under 1.
Once one of the pitching prospects who we hoped might emerge from the rebuild in the Orioles starting rotation, Akin turns 30 next April. He’s long past being one of the young guys. The team used up its final minor league option year for Akin this season when it optioned him in August, so he won’t be one of the flexible “option for a fresh arm, or if he’s struggling too much” guys any more.
On account of never having been much of a high-leverage guy – and honestly not having a great overall career track record – Akin won’t cost too much, either, with MLB Trade Rumors recently projecting Akin for a $1.4 million salary in his second year as an arbitration-eligible player. Bringing him back for another is not a cost issue.
Where does all of that leave Akin? He seems like he’s going to be one of the guys with a roster spot mostly locked down heading into the season, as well he should based on this year’s track record. If he pitches as well as he did this year, maybe he’ll start to get the seventh inning of games where the Orioles are winning, instead of games where they’re already losing.
Tomorrow: Cionel Pérez