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Labor market continues to defy expectations with steady hiring, low unemployment

July 3, 2025 by The Baltimore Sun

Job growth continued to grow at a steady pace in June as the U.S. labor market held strong through a series of challenging circumstances for businesses and defying economists’ expectations of a slowdown because of tariff uncertainty.

American employers added 147,000 jobs last month and unemployment dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Revisions to previous months also showed hiring was better than previously thought with a combined 16,000 more jobs added in April and May.

A strong labor market is a boost for the economy amid uncertainty facing consumers and businesses over President Donald Trump’s massive tariff policy. Keeping consumers employed allows the spending that powers the American economy.

Hiring was driven mostly by health care with 47,000 jobs, along with local and state governments that added 73,000 workers. Manufacturers and the federal government, which enacted widespread layoffs, each lost 7,000 workers.

Wages also rose 0.2% from the month prior and 3.7% from last year, levels approaching the Federal Reserve’s rough target of 3.5% that it believes is in line with its goal to get inflation back to 2%.

While the labor market has mostly held up despite tariff uncertainty, there are some nagging issues hanging over it and the broader economy. The size of the labor force, which counts people working or looking for work, fell 130,000 last month. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.3% in May, the lowest level since 2022.

Private-sector hiring has also slowed down significantly, with companies shedding 33,000 workers last month, according to Wednesday report from payroll servicer ADP.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson. “Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.”

Hesitancy to hire is being driven by unknowns hanging over the economy, including trade policy. The White House has only announced two trade deals with the U.K. and Vietnam in addition to a framework agreement with China. A self-imposed deadline of July 9 is quickly approaching for other countries in talks with the White House. A series of negotiations are hitting impasses despite the possibility of huge taxes on their exports.

Employers have been hesitant to let go of workers since the post-pandemic economic resurgence when there were more jobs than workers available, sending wages skyward because of intense competition for a limited pool of candidates. Layoffs have been low over the last several years despite issues with inflation and the more recent uncertainty over tariffs.

A healthy labor market is keeping the Fed on track to maintain its holding pattern on interest rates as it waits to see the effects of tariffs on inflation. Price increases have been more moderate than economists initially feared despite a wide variety of tariffs hitting manufacturers and America’s biggest trading partners, though it remains above the 2% target.

There are also questions about how long the trend of low inflation will last as government data is expected to start capturing the effects of tariffs over the coming months as companies run out of a built-up supply to blunt their impact and they start to raise prices.

The Trump administration has been pressuring the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates with inflation staying in check so far. The president has repeatedly criticized Powell and mused about firing him. On Thursday, Trump said Powell should resign from his position.

“‘Too Late’ should resign immediately!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

In a speech earlier this week, Powell said the Fed would continue to wait for more data to see how tariffs are affecting prices and the labor market before cutting rates.

“We’re simply taking some time,” he said. “As long as the U.S. economy is in solid shape, we think the prudent thing to do is wait and learn more and see what those effects might be.”

When asked about Trump’s attacks on him, Powell said at a conference this week that “I’m very focused on just doing my job. I mean, there are things that — the things that matter are using our tools to achieve the goals that Congress has given us: maximum employment and price stability, financial stability. That’s what we focus on, 100%.”

Thursday’s jobs report is likely to further reinforce the Fed’s stance as a healthy labor market will keep the economy on track despite all the headwinds it is facing from tariff uncertainty.

Have a news tip? Contact Austin Denean at atdenean@sbgtv.com or at x.com/austindenean. Content from The National Desk is provided by Sinclair, the parent company of FOX45 News.

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