Will Baltimore’s handling of young players provide a glimpse into their mindset before the trade deadline?
The Orioles are still trying to win games. Despite a sub-.500 record and long playoff odds, the team takes the field every night looking to chip away at the “games back” section of the wild card standings.
The team, led by interim skipper Tony Mansolino, has taken a practical approach and discussed a potentially attainable goal of returning to .500. Players are aware of what the trade deadline could bring, and they have expressed a desire to keep the club together. They know the best way to make it happen is to continue stepping in the right direction, and they are trying their best to do so.
The Orioles would have a far bigger problem if the players had already checked out. Guys like Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg are still attempting to hit their stride, while players like Ryan O’Hearn and Jackson Holliday look to reach new heights. Everyone is still focused on this season, and it’s showed up on the field.
It’s difficult to guess where the Orioles need to be to avoid selling at the trade deadline. The team dealt Trey Mancini and Jorge López at the beginning of their winning window, and the deals helped propel the team forward.
This year feels different with more established talent on the big league roster. The Birds have yet to prove they can compete in the postseason, but the club believes in several of the key contributors. Mike Elias will have the opportunity to flip pending free-agents for fresh resources, but only if he’s comfortable throwing in the towel this season.
That decision is still a month away. The Orioles could play .600 baseball over the next 29 games, and that might be enough. Then again, it might not be. Mike Elias doesn’t need to make that decision until the end of July, but there could be a few hints along the way.
Heston Kjerstad failed to take a step forward this year after 167 plate appearances. Injuries carved out more playing time for the lefty, but he failed to take advantage. Eventually, Ramón Laureano and Dylan Carlson both emerged as better options when healthy. Even without prized free-agent signing Tyler O’Neill, the O’s couldn’t justify keeping Kjerstad on the roster. The Orioles optioned the 26-year-old on June 10.
The move could be justified as a reset for the young prospect, but the power hitter has already proven everything he can at Triple-A. A rebuilding club, or a team focused on next year, would want that type of player to keep getting everyday at bats at the big league level. Baltimore optioned Kjerstad two weeks ago. If Carlson and Laureano continue to produce, and the other outfielders stay healthy, Kjerstad’s status could indicate whether the O’s are focused on short or long term success.
The same logic applies to Coby Mayo. The 23-year-old managed only four hits over 46 plate appearances last season. He struggled in early action last season, but he’s finally started to look more comfortable at the plate. Mayo has slashed 240/.296/.360 over the last 14 days. He’s still looking for his first MLB home run, but the power is definitely there.
The Orioles attempted to keep Mayo at third base with O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle on the roster. Now, with Mountcastle on the 60-day IL, the Birds are playing Mayo where many expect him to land long term.
Still, Mayo needs at bats for the sake of his development. O’Hearn should make the All-Star team, but he’s still slashing .244/.340/.293 against left-handed pitching. Mansolino can write Mayo’s name into the lineup card almost everyday if he feels so inclined. However, if the Orioles continue to provide Gary Sánchez starts at DH, or if they option Mayo to make room for a healthy Jorge Mateo, they won’t be focused on long-term development quite yet.
The speculation applies to pitchers too. Cade Povich could return from the injured list when he’s eligible on July 1. The emergence of Trevor Rogers has provided five healthy starting pitchers for the rotation.
Povich, with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP, could be the odd man out when healthy. Would the Orioles really move their best young pitching prospect to the bullpen to make room for a 41-year-old Charlie Morton? They will if he’s pitching well. The Orioles might want to drum up trade value for Morton, Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano, but they value Povich’s development too.
I don’t know what the Orioles are going to do at the trade deadline. I hope that Mike Elias doesn’t know yet either. The team’s play over the next month should shape the decision.
But if you’re like me, you’re looking for any hint out there. The front office has remained tight lipped for the duration of their administration in Baltimore, so we’ll have to focus on their actions. How the organization handles their young players over the next month could provide a clue into their mindset as the deadline approaches.