It’s unclear what the Orioles are going to do at the trade deadline. That makes Elias’ job one of the toughest in baseball.
The Orioles have five weeks—and 31 games—left to prove that they are a playoff contender. Once that time is up, Mike Elias will need to make his decisions for the trade deadline. Either he is reinvesting in the 2025 squad, or he is planning for 2026 and beyond.
We have something of a precedent for this situation. The 2022 Orioles were 10 games under .500 in mid June as well. Then they got hot and made it to the deadline at 52-51. But that streak didn’t convince Elias that they were ready for a postseason run. He traded fan favorite Trey Mancini and all-star closer Jorge López away. The team finished the season 83-79, three games out of the final wild card spot.
The situation is slightly different in 2025. For starters, the Orioles came into the season with World Series aspirations, whereas in 2022 the team was just emerging from the fog of an extensive rebuild. Plus, the American League right now seems to be weaker than it has been in years, which could lower the bar for entry into the playoffs. And finally, while the Orioles have stunk for much of this year, they have also not been particularly healthy. You could argue that their overall record is not a fair reflection of the actual talent on the roster, and instead they are trending up.
It really is a situation where you can squint and see whatever team you want to at this moment. The names and the production over the last month tell us that they should go for it. But the steep hill they have to climb in the standings paired with some remaining question marks throughout the roster should give you plenty of pause.
That’s why there is nothing to do at this moment but wait. A 10-game win streak isn’t out of the realm of possibility for this team. If that happens, you would imagine Elias will buy at the deadline. They could also go into a prolonged slump and make it an easy decision to sell. We will just have to see how they perform.
The extreme outcomes aren’t terribly interesting though, and they are also unlikely. What will probably happen between now and the end of July is that the Orioles will play just well enough to be on the periphery of the playoff picture, maybe four or five games out and a handful of games under .500. What Elias does in that scenario is what the entire industry will be interested to see.
An owner that wants to win
David Rubenstein made it clear when he bought a controlling stake in the Orioles last year that he wanted to win a World Series. At 75 years old, he understands that his time to do so is limited. Rubenstein cited his age at the end of 2024 when saying that he wants to “speed up the effort to get [to] a World Series a lot sooner than maybe some younger owners would.”
That’s relevant when it comes to Elias’ job security. An owner that wants to win immediately is not going to tolerate a GM that they do not believe can make that happen. The public comments from Elias and ownership about one another have always been positive. But it’s not like there have been a ton of those public comments in recent months, so it’s fair to wonder if things have changed given the tough first two months of the season, which have already included the firing of manager Brandon Hyde.
If Elias is on the hot seat, it could change his thinking around the deadline. Rather than being pragmatic and positioning his team for success both now and in the future, perhaps he shifts to thinking about 2025 in a silo. Would sneaking into the playoffs this season with a picked-through farm system be better than a sub-.500 year that sees them pad the minors with a few sell-offs? Maybe it would be for Elias personally, but potentially not for the organization’s future.
Plenty to sell
Speaking of those sell-offs, the 2025 Orioles have quite a few intriguing names that they could move this summer. Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, and Tomoyuki Sugano would add depth to any rotation. Seranthony Domínguez or Gregory Soto would be welcome middle-inning options for several contenders. Ramón Laureano and Cedric Mullins are viable outfield depth. And Ryan O’Hearn could be the best rental bat on the market.
It is unlikely that any of the returns for those players would be massive enough to make Elias shift his plans one way or the other. But it is another factor in how he approaches the deadline.
Hold on to what ya got
There is, of course, a third option beyond buying and selling. Elias could instead choose to sit on his hands. Maybe he would trade away some bullpen pieces or ship out a bench player if the organization deems a prospect ready to contribute. But other than that, he would stand pat.
That is not entirely different from what the Detroit Tigers did in 2024. They got to the end of July five games under .500. Their front office toyed with the idea of trading Tarik Skubal, but ended up holding him. They dealt away Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, and Andrew Chafin instead. And then, against all odds, they started winning. From the start of August through the end of the season the Tigers went 34-19 and snagged the final AL wild card spot, won in the wild card round, and pushed the Guardians to five games in the ALDS.
These Orioles are not so different from those Tigers. There is clearly upside on the roster, evidenced by how well they have played since late May. And there are internal reinforcements coming, particularly on the pitching staff. Getting back into the playoff picture with the exact roster they have now is a possibility. Elias would also look pretty smart in that scenario. The team he built was so good, he didn’t even need to add to it in-season. It was just those pesky injuries that got in the way early on!
QO vs. Prospects
Something else that Elias will be thinking about is the potential of qualifying offers for any of the expiring contracts currently on the books. Those same players that he would deal now could be worth draft picks in the offseason.
The Orioles don’t have any obvious QO candidates, but it’s possible that O’Hearn or maybe one of the starting pitchers becomes that by season’s end. In that scenario, trading them in July could end up being worth less than the pick they would net over the winter.
A lot on the line
With more than a month left until the deadline, there are so many variables to consider. It’s why so many teams wait until late July to make any moves of significance. The Orioles are likely to do the same. But whatever happens, it is going to be a highly consequential deadline for both Mike Elias and the Orioles organization.