The Orioles offense went missing over the weekend against Tampa Bay, but hopefully it’s found its way to Fenway Park for a series against the Red Sox.
“Limping up to Boston,” indeed. After a disappointing series against Tampa Bay, in which the Orioles scored a total of three runs in three games, it really feels like the offense has hit the skids. Are the Orioles playing hurt? Certainly at least some of them are playing frustrated.
But let’s keep it together. The Orioles are still in the thick of it in a beat-up AL East and remain strong favorites to secure a postseason spot, if not the division title. To accomplish the feat, the O’s need to take care of business against their next division opponent, Boston.
It hasn’t been the season the Red Sox wanted, although at 72-71, they remain in contention, at four games back of the Minnesota Twins, who currently hold the final AL Wild Card spot.
As a unit, the Sox’s pitching and hitting stats bear out their middle-of-the-pack status. Boston ranks 18th among MLB teams in ERA, including a yucky 4.60 mark for the bullpen. Like the Orioles, the Red Sox too have a Hall of Fame closer who’s not having his greatest season in Kenley Jansen, who’s got a somewhat inflated ERA of 3.62. Josh Winckowski, their most utilized reliever, has a 4.59 FIP in 32 appearances and Zack Kelly and Greg Weissert a 4.75 and 4.04 mark, respectively, after that.
Among the position players, outfielder Jarren Duran is having a heckuva year, with a .292/.349/.517/.866 slashline and a good enough glove to get him to 8.7 WAR on the season already, behind only Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. The rest of the outfield is also producing, with left fielder/DH Tyler O’Neill OPS’ing .871 and right fielder Wilyer Abreu owner of an .830 OPS himself. Third baseman Rafael Devers continues to hit, with 28 homers and an .897 OPS.
After that, it gets a little quieter. Shortstop Trevor Story missed most of the 2024 season with a dislocated shoulder and the Sox aren’t getting much production from the first base position. Their star offseason signing in 2023, Masataka Yoshida is hitting for average (.284) but not power (nine home runs).
None of the Red Sox starters have been aces, exactly, and this is true of tonight’s starting pitcher, Brayan Bello (12-7, 4.75 ERA). In his third season, the 25-year-old struggled to a 5.32 ERA in the first half, which a sore lat may have affected, but he’s been better since. He’s got a 3.48 ERA in his last seven games. The right hander is basically a three-pitch pitcher. He leans heavily on a power sinker, mixed up with a slider and changeup. Despite the preponderance of sinkers (40%), hitters are slugging .484 on the pitch.
The O’s have just two righties in the lineup tonight, DH Eloy Jiménez and rookie third baseman Coby Mayo. It would be pretty cool if Mayo, who racked up 22 home runs in 87 games in Triple-A this season, could hit his first major league home run over the Monster in Fenway. Meanwhile, lefty-hitting infielder Liván Soto makes his first start as an Oriole.
Cade Povich has had an up-and-down season (2-7, 5.76 ERA), but if last time out was any indication, the rookie is figuring it out. Last week, Povich silenced an (admittedly very bad) White Sox lineup over 7.1 scoreless frames in which he allowed just five hits and struck out ten. But importantly, he found his control, walking none and consistently landing his stuff on the outside and inside part of the zone.
The Red Sox are not similar pushovers, but if it helps, they have hit worse off lefty starters (.243/.317/.401 versus .261/.323/.442 off righties). Besides the Red Sox’s two best hitters in Duran and Devers, the whole rest of the lineup will be right-handed. It’ll help if Povich can establish himself on the inside third of the plate.
Orioles lineup
1. Gunnar Henderson SS (L)
2. Cedric Mullins CF (L)
3. Anthony Santander RF (S)
4. Ryan O’Hearn 1B (L)
5. Adley Rutschman C (S)
6. Eloy Jiménez DH (R)
7. Colton Cowser LF (L)
8. Coby Mayo 3B (R)
9. Liván Soto 2B (L)
Red Sox lineup
1. Jarren Duran LF (L)
2. Rafael Devers 3B (L)
3. Rob Refsnyder RF (R)
4. Tyler O’Neill DH (R)
5. Romy González 2B (R)
6. Connor Wong 1B (R)
7. Trevor Story SS (R)
8. Danny Jansen C (R)
9. Ceddanne Rafaela CF (R)