Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles came into 2025 as contenders but their season fell apart quickly. They have the pieces to bounce back in 2026 but what remains to be seen is how aggressive they will be in making offseason upgrades.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Tyler O’Neill, OF: $33MM through 2027
• Samuel Basallo, C/1B: $67MM through 2033, including buyout of 2034 club option

Option Decisions

• OF Tyler O’Neill can opt out of remaining two years and $33MM on his deal
• Club has $5.5MM option on IF/OF Jorge Mateo
• Club has $3MM option on LHP Dietrich Enns

2026 guarantees (assuming the Enns option is picked up): $20.5MM
Total future commitments: $103MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
• Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
• Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
• Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
• Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
• José Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
• Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
• Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
• Félix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
• Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
• Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
• Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
• Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
• Albert Suárez (3.019): $900K

Non-tender candidates: Mountcastle, Akin, Carlson, Castillo, Cano, Jackson

Free Agents

• Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, Gary Sánchez

As seen up top, the O’s have almost no long-term commitments. They have a large arbitration class but none of the projections are particularly onerous. Even with those arb players, RosterResource projects the club for a paltry $69MM payroll next year, almost $100MM below what they spent in 2025. A few non-tenders should give them even more breathing room.

All that potential payroll capacity doesn’t guarantee of aggressive moves, however. They also had lots of dry powder last winter and still kept things fairly modest. The only multi-year pact was a three-year deal for Tyler O’Neill with an opt-out after the first season. Otherwise, it was one-year deals for veteran players like Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sánchez and Ramón Laureano.

The starting pitching investments were particularly underwhelming. The O’s clearly needed more in the rotation. Since it was the first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein, some fans believed a new level of spending was possible. In November, then-general manager Mike Elias set the expectations fairly high. “You’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open,” he said. “That involves high-end free agent deals over many years. We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”

But the O’s ended up with a 41-year-old Morton and a 35-year-old Sugano. The rotation ended up being a source of frustration for the O’s all year. A spring injury to Grayson Rodriguez quickly cut into the depth and led the O’s to a mid-March signing of Kyle Gibson. In April, Zach Eflin hit the injured list and Morton struggled enough to get bumped to the bullpen. Gibson came up to try to patch the holes but he was torched in four starts and released in May. Plenty of other guys struggled to put good numbers together as well.

The season quickly slipped away. They were 12-18 at the end of April and then went 9-18 in May. They were better the rest of the way but it was too late to get the season back on track. They went into the deadline as sellers and were aggressive in trading away veterans for prospects.

Going into 2026, the rotation again needs some work, though there have been some positive developments. Trevor Rogers took a while to get on track in 2025, starting the season on the IL with a knee injury, but had an amazing finish. He posted a 1.81 earned run average over 18 starts. It’s not realistic to expect him to stay that good over a longer sample but the numbers under the hood are promising. Kyle Bradish got back on the mound after his 2024 Tommy John surgery. He only made six starts in the majors but also made six more as part of his rehab.

Rogers and Bradish make for a strong one-two punch atop the rotation. Rodriguez would be another front-of-rotation option but he missed the entire season due to elbow and shoulder issues. He’s expected to be ready for spring training but the O’s will probably have to be mindful of his workload for a while. Guys like Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Tyler Wells can fill in the back but adding another front-end guy makes sense, something Elias has admitted. Will the poor 2025 season prompt a bolder strike this offseason?