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One Japanese Player Who Could Make Sense for the 2026 Orioles

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The Baltimore Orioles could make a gigantic splash in free agency during the 2026 offseason. Pitching is the key need for the team, especially regarding their aging rotation and depleted bullpen. There are also some holes in the lineup they need to address on the right side of the infield, and maybe an outfielder. Sports Illustrated published an article on Sunday suggesting insider Jon Heyman linked a Japanese infielder, Kazuma Okamoto, to the Orioles. No team will shy away from looking at a potential impact bat in their lineup for next year. The question for the team is whether Okamoto is even necessary and can make that much of a difference in their lineup.

Mar 16, 2025; Bunkyo, Tokyo, Japan; Yomiuri Giants first baseman Kazuma Okamoto (25) hits a single against the Chicago Cubs during the second inning at Tokyo Dome. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Orioles Lack A Dependable First Baseman

First base has been a turnstile for the Orioles this year, with none of the players able to lock it down. Veteran Ryan Mountcastle fell off a cliff in terms of productivity, only hitting five home runs in 76 games. He also registered his lowest on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, and worst walk-rate of his career. It essentially caps off a long decline in his power production as he hits more grounders.

Prospect Coby Mayo also struggled this year, putting up even worse numbers than Mountcastle. While he did hit more home runs, his strikeout rate is nearing 30%, while his hard-hit percentage sits under 40%. With first base considered a power position, these numbers are not ideal for the position in general.

Kazuma Okamoto Offers Longevity at First for Orioles

The good news is that, if the Orioles seek to plug the hole at first, Kazuma Okamoto offers a long-term solution. While there is a lack of data in terms of sabermetric numbers, his surface-level performance suggests he could turn into a key producer in any lineup.

Between 2018 and 2024, Okamoto never had an OPS under .800 and had over 30 home runs in six of those seven seasons. His on-base percentage also hovered near the MLB average or was over 40 points higher than that, while his slugging never finished below .450.

His walk rate averages anywhere between a healthy 10-13% in any given year. At the same time, his strikeout rate hovered around 21-22%, also a positive number for his plate discipline. Never did he strike out more than he got a hit, and his gap power improved with age.

Okamoto’s 2025 was shortened due to injury, but his trajectory showed that his floor is high. In 58 games, he had 16 doubles and 11 home runs with 22 walks and 27 strikeouts. When converting it into percentages and comparing against his average, there’s a negligible difference. In fact, if he had a full season and continued, he could have had his first over-.300 batting average season since 2018.

Mountcastle’s job is clearly in jeopardy if the Orioles target Okamoto. He is slightly older, but his production could translate very well to MLB. The team may sign him during the offseason and plug him in the cleanup or third spot due to his gap and raw power.

But What About Basallo?

The one hurdle that could complicate a matchup would be where Samuel Basallo ends up. Don’t forget that the 21-year-old prospect can play first base and could end up there if Adley Rutschman remains behind the dish. He also offers major power upside if he puts together a productive offseason and corrects the holes in his zone.

What most people are forgetting is that there is an opening in the designated hitter spot. Ryan O’Hearn was traded to the San Diego Padres just before the trade deadline, leaving a major power vacuum for the team. This also holds the answer for Baltimore restructuring their lineup if they do snag Okamoto.

All they could do is put either Basallo or Okamoto in the designated hitter spot and the other at first base. Neither is a terrible first baseman, limiting their errors to single digits and holding high fielding efficiency. It’s really plug-and-play for either player, but it could be better to have Basallo take first base since he developed in the farm system. Okamoto could thrive quickly if all he focuses on is hitting.

 

Main Photo Credit: © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

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