No minor league player took a bigger jump in prospect status than Gunnar Henderson did in 2022 and he comes in as the easy #1 prospect in the system.
Gunnar Henderson
Pos: Third baseman/SS
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21
2022 Level: AA/AAA/Maj
Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 50/60
Game Power: 50/60
Raw Power: 60/65
Run: 60/50
Defense: 50/60
What we know: No minor league player took a bigger jump in prospect status than Gunnar Henderson did in 2022. Starting the year off in Bowie (AA), Henderson looked like a completely different player at the plate from the year before, slashing .312/.452/.573/1.025 with 8 HRs and 13 2Bs, while drawing 41 BB with 38 K and a very low 8.3% swinging K rate in 208 PAs. That got him promoted to AAA just three weeks shy of his 21st birthday.
In Norfolk, Henderson continue to hit slashing .288/.390/.504/.894 though his K rate rose a bit and his BB % fell. He did however find some success for the first time against southpaws slashing .253/.333/.460/.793 against them in 99 PAs, though with 39 Ks and only 2 home runs.
That led him to get promoted on August 31st to Baltimore where to no ones surprise, hit a home run for his first major league hit in his first major league game. He would hold his own against big league pitching slashing .259/.349/.440/.788 with 17 BBs and 34 Ks. His 92.4 average exit velocity was 4 MPH over MLB average and his 9.8 barrel % and 53.7 hard hit % were well over major league averages.
He also showed to be a plus runner putting up 91st percentile sprint speeds and surprising a few infielders with infield hits.
Defensively, he also made gains cutting down his errors at both shortstop and particularly at 3B where he started to get more playing time as he moved up the chain. He has good hands, solid quickness, and a strong accurate arm from both SS and 3B, but looks more well suited for 3B than SS. While he does have the current quickness to play shortstop, as he continues to gain weight and get bigger as he matures, third base will be where he ends up and should be a plus defensive 3B when it’s all said and done.
What we don’t know: Henderson answered most of the questions anyone could have about him wit the only one left is how well he will hit left-handers. He did improve his hitting of southpaws in AAA and considering the jumps he made in 2022, it would not surprise us if he closes that platoon gap significantly over the next few years at the big-league level. He can struggle with breaking pitches and offspeed pitches at times, but we expect those adjustments to continue next season
What we think: Henderson is pretty much universally considered one of, if not the top prospect in all of baseball and it’s easy to understand why. He has an advanced feel to hit, is not afraid to see a lot of pitches, and is just starting to fill out his power. When you add in his speed and defense, he has become a five-tool budding superstar. He’ll start 2023 at either 3B or SS with the Orioles depending on offseason moves.
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