One of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, Grayson Rodriguez is the #2 prospect in the system.
Grayson Rodriguez
Throws: RHP
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22
2022 Level: AAA
Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 65/70
Curveball: 50/55
Change: 65/70
Slider: 50/55
Command: 50/60
https://www.mlb.com/video/rodriguez-strikes-out-eight
Most Likely Future Role: Number two occasional All-Star
Ceiling: Top of the rotation starter, All-Star
What we know: For the 3rd year in a row this big right-hander comes in as the 2nd best prospect in the system. Using a 95-97 MPH fastball that can touch triple digits with good spin and carry, he generates a ton of swing and miss in the upper portion of the zone. He pairs his plus fastball with three offspeed pitches, a 83-85 mph split change, a high 70s curveball, and a mid-80s slider. The split-change is most consistent offspeed pitch that gets swings and misses with good downward and arm side run and can flash plus-plus at times. His hard curve and slider can also be swing and miss pitches and it depends on the game whether that’s his go to breaking ball. When he’s getting both over with movement he’s pretty hard to hit.
Rodriguez used his arsenal to dominate AAA hitters through his first 11 starts, holding them to a .168/.224/.254/.478, striking out 80, walking 14, while allowing just one home run over 56 innings.
Then, in the 6th with two outs in a start against Jacksonville on June 1st, Rodriguez grabbed his side after a pitch and left the game immediately. He would be diagnosed with pulled lat muscle, spending three months on the IL before starting a rehab with Aberdeen on September 1st.
Rodrigue would end up making three more starts with Norfolk in the last three weeks of the season and with Orioles out of things by then, they shut him down for the year.
Overall Rodriguez led the organization with just a 3.8% HR rate, tied for first with a 36.6% K rate, and was 4th in swinging strike rate with 15.8%.
What we don’t know: Not much really. He was ready for the big leagues when he went down with the unfortunate lat pull and then showed he was healthy in his last few starts of the year though his command was not 100%. The only question is what does his stuff look like at 100 pitches as his season high was just 90 in the last start of the year, and he only went 80 or more in seven of his starts.
What we think: Rodriguez has all the makings of a top of the rotation starter stuff wise and if the Orioles ever take the kid gloves off him, we think Orioles fans should see that in 2023. The only issue will be how many innings will the Orioles allow him to pitch in 2023 after getting in just 75.2 this year and how will they mange those innings in order to have him fresh for a potential playoff run in September and October?
If he stays healthy, and the good news is his injury was not shoulder or arm related, then expect him to be a big part of the Orioles rotation in 2023.
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