Will Ryan Mountcastle perform with enough consistency to beat the projections in 2024?
Over the next few weeks, Camden Chat writers will be looking at the projected performance for most of the expected regulars on the Orioles roster. We’ll be sizing up what would have to go right for players to beat the projections, or go wrong for players to fail to live up to them, and polling readers for each player.
The Orioles will head to camp with several infield combinations at their disposal. A variety of players could find their way to second base, shortstop or third on any given day, but there’s already a clearly established platoon at first base. Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn will handle the Ryan’s lion’s share of duties for the O’s.
Mountcastle entered 2023 as the unquestioned starter at first base. The Orioles brought in several candidates to fill a backup role, but none of the players made the Opening Day roster. O’Hearn outlasted Lewin Díaz, Franchy Cordero and Josh Lester before joining the team on April 13.
Mountcastle did not need competition to thrive early in the year. He blasted his fourth and fifth homers on April 11 and slashed .289/.320/.711 in his first 11 games. Unfortunately, he then proceeded to fall off a cliff. Mountcastle slashed .222/.275/.435 in the month of May with only five homers and 31 strikeouts.
Meanwhile, O’Hearn hit the ground running. He posted a .937 OPS in May before slashing .309/.338/.529 over 20 games in June. Mountcastle lost his clear advantage on the depth chart, and O’Hearn helped offset a clear dip in production from the position.
The Orioles placed Mountcastle on the injured list in June with symptoms caused by vertigo. The former first-round pick eventually disclosed that dizziness and a light-headed feel made it difficult to pick up the baseball. It was unclear to what extent vertigo played in his struggles, but the Orioles provided Mountcastle plenty of time to get right.
Mountcastle returned in the middle of July and looked like a brand new player. He posted a .350/.386/.625 over 15 games in July while mostly starting against lefties. The Orioles ran with a traditional platoon at first, but Mountcastle played his way back to the lineup on a daily basis. He slashed .360/.444/.540 while starting 27 games in August.
Mountcastle limped to the finish line in September and his Jekyll and Hyde season ultimately yielded a .270/.328/.452 line. His .779 OPS fell below a ZiPS projected .804.
Looking ahead to 2024, ZiPS projects Mountcastle to slash .258/.313./445 with an OPS of .758. ZiPS projects 23 home runs for 2024 compared to a projected 29 last season. They call for a slight drop in BB%, a slight increase in K%, and five fewer doubles. The projections signal five more home runs (23) with Mountcastle playing 18 more games than last season.
There’s no way of knowing whether O’Hearn can replicate a season that earned him Comeback Player of the Year award votes, but his performance could impact Mountcastle’s playing time and the frequency of favorable matchups in 2024.
Taking all of this into account, do you think Mountcastle will exceed or fall short of the ZiPS-projected .758 OPS for the season?
The case for the over
Mountcastle posted a .779 OPS last season despite the fact that he saw the ball as “pea-sized” for an undisclosed period of time. Injuries are impossible to predict, but a healthy Mountcastle should have the ability to match his OPS from last season. The left field wall remains an obstacle at Camden Yards, but Mountcastle ranked in the 89th percentile of expected slugging (.503) last season. The 27-year-old has always hit the ball hard, and he figures to rank in the top 20 percent of the league in exit velocity once again this year.
The case for the under
Health and playing time are both valid concerns. O’Hearn benefited from the elimination of the shift last season and the rule will remain in place this year. Anthony Santander could see increased time at first base if a young outfielder makes a push for at bats, and Coby Mayo is lurking at Triple A. Ramón Urías, Adley Rutschman and James McCann could all make a guest appearance at the position if Brandon Hyde wants their bat in the lineup.
Mountcastle handled the emergence of O’Hearn with poise last season, but a lack of stability could eventually wear him down. Mountcastle has always been a bit of a streaky player, and a bad month could submarine his stats for the season.