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Orioles 2025 Mid-Season Report: Pitching

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The Baltimore Orioles are having a really rough year. The team currently sits at a 40-50 record, last in the American League East and 12 1/2 games behind first. The team’s previous manager, Brandon Hyde, also went from AL Manager of the Year in 2023 to being shown the door in 2025.

But no more evident has the Orioles’ decline been than in their pitching. As of July 8, the team’s ERA places fourth-worst in the league, alongside their WHIP. They’ve also surrendered the third-most home runs while sporting the second-worst opposing batting average, a gigantic step back from 2024.

Corbin Burnes‘ departure in the offseason was a significant blow, and Grayson Rodriguez‘s extended absence doesn’t help either. That doesn’t excuse the absolute disappointment the team’s arms have been this year. What exactly happened to the team’s pitching staff?

Orioles’ Starting Pitching Woes

The players the Orioles have to try and plug the holes left behind by Rodriguez and Burnes in the rotation have been poor. The team holds the second-lowest WAR by starting pitchers at negative four, just beating out the Colorado Rockies. When looking deeper into the stats, it’s clear that the veteran staff is either hitting their limit or not adjusting well.

Charlie Morton

The 41-year-old Charlie Morton signed with the Orioles for a one-year, $15 million contract in January. Morton, coming off a respectable four-year tenure with the Atlanta Braves, contemplated retirement at the end of the season, according to MLB.com. It seemed to be a panic move by the team after losing out to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Burnes in free agency.

Jul 4, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The move has not paid off by any means. Giving credit where due, Morton’s numbers have come down since the end of May, even winning five games in that time span. Even in the last four outings, the aging veteran struck out 27 in 21 1/3 innings while only walking four batters and surrendering one home run.

June was his best month in an Orioles uniform, pitching to a 2.88 ERA with only eight runs surrendered and no home runs. The downside is that he has issues with surrendering too many hits, bloating his WHIP to 1.400 for the month.

The good news is that most of his metrics suggest he’s not losing any zip in his pitches. The bad news suggests his location and execution might be suffering, with fewer players chasing and less weak contact. Morton is getting beaten by simple contact, and that’s a problem.

Tomoyuki Sugano

Tomoyuki Sugano, the team’s premier free-agent pitcher signing, had a completely opposite June from Morton. The 35-year-old pitched to a 6.20 ERA and 1.743 WHIP, surrendering six home runs. He struck out only 17 batters in 24 2/3 innings pitched. Even though he hasn’t been a strikeout pitcher, his declining efficiency now offers no excuse for his poor strikeout number.

The good news for those banking on Sugano is that he doesn’t throw a lot of walks. In 93 1/3 innings pitched this year, he has only issued 19 walks, a rate of less than two per nine innings. He has control, perhaps too much control, at the expense of movement.

The biggest issue with the 35-year-old is his lack of movement on pitches. For his six-pitch arsenal, Sugano either has the average drop and break, or is significantly under the comparable number. Hitters are easily reading where a pitch is going to go, and they’re not getting fooled, explaining his low whiff and strikeout rate.

Dean Kremer

29-year-old righty Dean Kremer is the most consistent pitcher on the team. He is average, but he hasn’t regressed badly nor have his starts been volatile. Yes, he produces some really poor outings, but nothing too insurmountable. He’s been picking up his strikeout game, and he’s seeing his numbers regulate like Morton’s have.

The problem is that Kremer isn’t great; he needs to be more than just average on a team with no clear ace. Once again, he finds himself surrendering more than one hit per inning, while being well below the average threshold for strikeouts per nine. He needs to be great to succeed in the rotation.

The more in-depth metrics paint some promise, including a bit more spin on his fastball, but his curveball really suffered this year. He has some good attributes, including keeping exit velocity down and limiting hard contact, but he’s far from an ace.

Zach Eflin

The 31-year-old Zach Eflin was a key trade acquisition for the Orioles in 2024. Days before the trade deadline, the team shipped off two batters, Mac Horvath and Matthew Etzel, and one pitcher, Jackson Baumeister, to land the veteran right-hander. Pitching to a 5-2 record with a 2.60 ERA, it seemed like Eflin could be an impact player.

In 2025, he’s seen a significant regression in his game. He’s throwing fewer strikeouts, has surrendered nearly more home runs in half the time he did in 2024, and he’s once again surrendering more hits than innings pitched. The lone aspect that’s positive is that he’s not issuing too many walks, a recurring theme with the rotation.

Eflin might just be the unlucky one in the rotation. Most of his metrics look good aside from strikeouts and whiffs, plus he has good break on his more advanced pitches. It’s the curveball that’s killing him with a slugging percentage over .900. He might need to either revamp it or drop it altogether. Plus, he might need to add a bit of speed on his fastball, 92 miles an hour with bad vertical drop doesn’t get it done. Let’s see what he does after he returns from injury.

The Young Guns

For the two younger pitchers, one is shining while the other is sinking. Starting with Cade Povich, one of the team’s higher pitching prospects, he has failed to materialize in the majors. He’s surrendering over ten hits per nine innings and over 1.5 home runs per nine, but thankfully kept his walk rate down.

Trevor Rogers, however, has turned into a potential ace for the team. In his first five starts in 2025, he’s pitched a 1.57 ERA with a WHIP of 0.872. He’s only surrendered one home run and walked eight while striking out 24. Essentially, Rogers is an oasis in the Orioles’ pitching desert.

There’s not really anything that makes Rogers stand out in the rotation. He’s just been really good. It can change, however, but for now the team should enjoy his success.

Bullpen

The hero of the Orioles’ pitching staff has been the bullpen. As previously mentioned, that part of the staff helped lock down games in June and gave them some life in the playoff race. Closer Félix Bautista didn’t blow a single save in the month of June and only surrendered one run. Newfound setup man Bryan Baker did blow one against the New York Yankees on June 22, but only surrendered three runs in 11 1/3 innings.

Seranthony Dominguez, who had a poor May, also surrendered no earned runs and struck out 19 in 13 innings. Gregory Soto also had a bounce-back June, despite blowing a save against the Texas Rangers on June 24. Keegan Akin is the lone problem spot, giving up five runs in 12 innings in June while walking four. It’s a small problem, thankfully, given how successful the front of the bullpen has been.

The bullpen is keeping walks low while also raking in strikeouts. If it can keep up the performance, and the rotation finally gets reinforcements or turns it around completely, they might sneak in a playoff spot.

 

Main Photo Credit: © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

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