As the Orioles begin spring training in just under two weeks, fans remain dissatisfied with their offseason moves. The rise in their payroll to $156 million, 15th in the majors, doesn’t matter because the Orioles didn’t “win” the offseason.
I’m not sure how the Orioles could have won the offseason because they weren’t going to compete for Juan Soto, who signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. And it’s clear that last year’s ace, Corbin Burnes, preferred to play for the Arizona Diamondbacks and train near his offseason Scottsdale home rather than stay with the Orioles.
The Orioles chose not to be in the competition for fan favorite Anthony Santander, who went to Toronto for five years and $92.5 million. Most of Santander’s contract ($61.75 million) is deferred, and there’s a $15 million club option for 2030. The Orioles didn’t think the 30-year-old Santander, who hit 44 home runs last season, would be able to sustain that production.
Ten offseasons ago, the Orioles passed on signing two productive and popular hitters, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, because of concerns that they wouldn’t be able to sustain their performances. Those decisions, made by executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ predecessor, Dan Duquette, turned out to be unfortunate ones.
Markakis, who was 30 when he left the Orioles after the 2014 season, had five more strong seasons with the Atlanta Braves. Cruz, who led the majors in home runs with 40 in 2014, his only season with the Orioles, was 34 then, and still a powerful slugger six years later and played until he was 43.
The Orioles were unable to replace Markakis in right field for years. While Mark Trumbo came along a year later and led the major leagues in home runs in his first year with the Orioles, his career wasn’t nearly productive and lengthy as Cruz’s.
In The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon wrote on Thursday that they believed it was possible that Elias might have acted too quickly to replace Santander with Tyler O’Neill, citing his recent injury history. If O’Neill has a strong season, he’ll opt out of the remaining two years of his $49.5 million contract.
Each of the six free agents signed by the Orioles — O’Neill, starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, catcher Gary Sánchez, reliever Andrew Kittredge and outfielder Dylan Carlson — is committed to the Orioles for 2025 alone, though Kittredge has a $9 million option for 2026.
Elias has built a team around a talented core of draft picks: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Grayson Rodriguez, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday.
Holliday, Kjerstad and Coby Mayo haven’t yet established themselves, though each can do that in 2025.
Around them, he has a slew of veterans he’s acquired: starting pitcher Zach Eflin, infielders Jorge Mateo, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Urías, relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto, and centerfielder Cedric Mullins, whom he inherited.
All are eligible for free agency after this year.
Mateo signed an option for $5.5 million for 2026 with up to $500 million in performance bonuses as part of settling his arbitration case. He settled for $3.55 million.
It’s possible that half the club that begins the 2025 season won’t be here a year from now, and that’s probably by design.
In order to financially compete with the New York Yankees, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers, the Orioles will have to be nimble and have a roster full of players without long-term commitments.
Owner David Rubenstein’s wish for a salary cap is unlikely to materialize during the next round of collective bargaining after the 2026 season, and while he’s signed off on payroll increases, he knows that the Orioles can’t compete financially with those big-market teams.
Because Burnes and Santander declined qualifying offers, the Orioles get two high draft choices as compensation, and they’ll have the 19th, 30th and 31st picks in July’s draft.
Henderson was the 42nd pick in the 2019 draft. Westburg, the 30th pick a year later.
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