The top-ranked of the three prospects, according to Baseball America, is the Orioles #13 guy, Mac Horvath.
The Orioles are not waiting until the trade deadline to get their moves in. After striking earlier on Friday to possibly bolster the bullpen in trading Austin Hays to the Phillies, the O’s pivoted to a different kind of trade, packaging prospects in order to acquire a starting pitcher. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was the first to report on the Orioles getting Zach Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays. The full trade, from ESPN’s Jeff Passan:
Orioles get: RHP Zach Eflin
Rays get: OF Matthew Etzel, IF/OF Mac Horvath, RHP Jackson Baumeister
The announcement of the deal also included the Orioles receiving cash from the Rays. Eflin has an $11 million salary in 2024, with $18 million lined up for 2025. Reporting indicated that this cash covers a $1 million trade bonus in Eflin’s contract and the O’s are paying the salaries for this year and next in full.
This is the second consecutive trade that doesn’t summon a whole lot of immediate excitement for me, words that I wrote into this article before even knowing who the reported three minor leaguers involved in the trade are. More about them in a few paragraphs.
The problem for me is just that Eflin hasn’t been all that good this year, and the Orioles don’t need to keep acquiring pitchers who haven’t been all that good in hopes that they will be better here. I don’t understand why they keep doing it. It didn’t work out when they traded for Cole Irvin, Shintaro Fujinami, or Jack Flaherty a year ago.
Eflin is in the second year of a three-year, $40 million contract that he signed with the Rays. He had a good year with Tampa in 2023, finishing with a 3.50 ERA and 3.01 FIP, striking out more than one batter per inning, and showing durability by finishing the season with 31 starts. That was the first time in Eflin’s career that he’d ever started more than 28 games.
The results aren’t there so far in 2024, with an ERA that has jumped up to 4.09 even as offense is down across the league; the result is an ERA+ that’s below average at 95. There are positives underneath that, with Eflin continuing a miniscule walk rate (just 1.1 BB/9) so that even though he’s allowing more than one hit per inning, it’s overall not too many baserunners. The Orioles seem to be counting on that turning around not only this year, but next year too.
Over Eflin’s nine-year MLB career, the 30-year-old has worked out to a below league average pitcher, though a lot of what goes into that is serious scuffling in his first two seasons with the Phillies. From 2019 to the present, he’s thrown nearly 700 innings with a 3.94 ERA and 1.189 WHIP. It’s a solid track record over the past several seasons. His 2023 for the Rays was a 3.5 bWAR season. So far in 2024, he’s at 0.7 bWAR.
My standard for judging any trade the Orioles made for a starting pitcher is: “Does this move Dean Kremer down from the #3 spot in the rotation?” This answer would seem to be a solid yes. Perhaps I should have aimed higher in my goal, because I am not particularly excited thinking about Eflin as the #3 starter in a playoff series either. I’ve already been wrong about one of today’s trades (I never believed they’d trade Hays in-season) and I would be happy to be wrong again if Eflin smashes past my current expectations based on his 2024 numbers to date.
The trio of prospects involved were all drafted by the Orioles a year ago. Horvath was their second round pick, with Baumeister selected in the competitive balance round B that follows the second round. Etzel was a tenth round pick.
Horvath, who just turned 23 within the last week, has been playing with High-A Aberdeen in his first full season, batting .233/.328/.417 across 71 games. He’s mostly played third base, with a bit of outfield mixed in. A recent Baseball America midseason prospect update had him as the highest-ranked of these three players in the system at #13.
Baumeister is next at #18. He is the highest-drafted pitcher under Mike Elias, and now Elias didn’t even keep him for all that long. The O’s signed the 6’4” righty after drafting him last year and have also had him at Aberdeen this year, where he’s struck out a ton of guys (11.6 K/9) while also walking way too many guys (5.5 BB/9).
Etzel has won some fans with his performance at Aberdeen this season. Though he was only a tenth round pick, the 22-year-old outfielder smashed the High-A level with an .857 OPS in 51 games and got himself a promotion to Double-A. Speed isn’t playing quite as well there, as he’s only 10/15 in stolen base attempts and has only hit three doubles in 32 games after having 12 with Aberdeen.
I’m not too worried about the Orioles missing any of these players in the long haul. The deal will be a success or a failure based on how Eflin pitches with the team. If he is good this year and if he can be good next year, that will console us no matter what any of the prospects end up doing in 2028 or 2029.
The Orioles needed to add quality to the roster right now. This was not the most quality option available. It preserves the top-ranked prospects, and even a Connor Norby-level prospect, either for later deals (which I’m no longer expecting, but I could easily be wrong about this too) or just to keep them in the organization to eventually contribute at the big league level. That part is a plus. Eflin pitching in an O’s uniform needs to also be a plus for the sake of the 2024 and 2025 team’s fortunes.