Can the 2025 Orioles ever break this lefty starter curse thing? The Angels series offers them another chance.
After a couple of weeks where they were playing a better brand of baseball, the Orioles have reverted over the last week to a more familiar 2025 mode of losing. Starting pitching has been more spotty, the offense is prone to doing nothing against pitchers who are not very good, and the bullpen… well, actually, the bullpen’s still been pretty good. Keep it up.
Next awaiting the Orioles are the Los Angeles Angels, who no longer proclaim allegiance to Anaheim in their formal name but do still play their home games in Anaheim. The Angels are one of the seven teams that stand between the Orioles and a wild card spot, if you want to believe in that. They’ve been steadily improving since hitting a season-worst eight games below .500 on May 14. Heading into this series, the Angels have ascended to 33-34, just one game under .500.
It’s been a back-and-forth month to get the Angels to this point. They won eight in a row starting on May 16 to reach .500, then lost the next five to fall back down. They’ve been scratching back since, winning series against the Red Sox and Mariners, as well as sweeping the Athletics right before they flew out to Baltimore.
The Angels are probably eyeing the stumbling Orioles as an opportunity to continue their climb. They sit 2.5 back of a wild card with three teams to pass. Mike Trout deserves another shot at the playoffs! Not that Trout himself is much of the reason the Angels are where they are right now. This is the most pedestrian season that the future Hall of Famer has had since his rookie year. True, the 2025 Orioles could use more guys who are “just” at a 111 OPS+, but he’s grading poorly on defense in right field and sits at only 0.1 bWAR.
Game 1: Friday, 7:08pm
The only available TV broadcast of this game will be on Apple TV+. It will air on the Orioles Radio Network as usual.
- BAL starter: Charlie Morton (6.59 ERA, 5.24 FIP over 56 IP in 15 G/9 GS)
- LAA starter: Jack Kochanowicz (5.61 ERA, 5.47 FIP over 67.1 IP in 13 GS)
Kochanowicz is the only one of the three Angels starting pitchers in this series who is a righty. He is also the only one of the three who has gotten unquestionably bad results so far this season. That’s included a bad stretch lately, where he’s given up four runs in each of his past four starts. If the guy was going six innings every time, that would still be poor but not as bad. But, he’s not. He’s gone four or fewer innings in three of his last four starts.
In the series out in California last month, the Orioles only scored a run over Kochanowicz’s 5.2 innings. That was despite the O’s getting four hits and four walks. The only thing stopping them from appalling RISP failure in the game is that they didn’t actually get the guys to second base. We’re going to need the O’s to do better here at Camden Yards to help believe that the offense is actually improved now that several people are back.
Morton was on the way towards trying to write a better story about himself this season, but that was interrupted when he gave up four runs in 2.1 innings last time out against the Athletics. If he goes back to stinking it up, he should not be making any more starts for this team. The Angels offense is not particularly good. This isn’t the slam dunk of facing the White Sox. Every Orioles pitchers should be able to take advantage, nonetheless.
Game 2: Saturday, 4:05
- BAL starter: Tomoyuki Sugano (3.23 ERA, 4.59 FIP over 75.1 IP in 13 GS)
- LAA starter: Tyler Anderson (3.99 ERA, 4.78 FIP over 70 IP in 13 GS)
There is a tale of two Tyler Andersons in the 2025 season. There’s Home Anderson, where he has a 2.75 ERA over seven starts, and Road Anderson, where it’s a 5.58 ERA through six starts. The Orioles saw Home Anderson about a month ago and got him for three runs (but only one earned) in five innings, a game the O’s ultimately won by a 7-3 margin. Getting only four hits in five innings was not all that good by the O’s offense, so it’s nice they won anyway. It will be nicer if they can really stick it to Road Anderson.
Road Sugano dominated the Angels in the series in Anaheim last month, allowing just one run in a 7.1 inning start that the Orioles ended up winning, 4-1. He’s done a little bit worse at home than on the road, though the 3.67 home ERA and 1.223 home WHIP are still mighty acceptable. It has been more fun than I could have imagined watching this guy pitch. Too bad for me that I am going to two games of this series and neither one is the one Sugano is pitching.
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35
- BAL starter: Cade Povich (5.46 ERA, 4.24 FIP over 61 IP in 12 GS)
- LAA starter: Yusei Kikuchi (2.92 ERA, 4.30 FIP over 77 IP in 14 GS)
As the previous day’s starter Anderson has substantially worse splits on the road compared to at home, so does Kikuchi. He’s got a miniscule 1.05 ERA through six home starts, and an elevated 4.43 ERA through eight road starts. Still, it’s a great season for him overall up to this point, notching 2.5 bWAR in his games to date. Plugging him in to the Orioles rotation would be a three-win swing on its own. I don’t know if that will last. Kikuchi has never been this good before and there are concerning peripheral markers: He’s striking out fewer guys and walking way more than before.
To be determined whether the Orioles offense that is now closer to full strength can start to change the narrative that has sunk in about how they have performed against left-handed pitchers this season.
Povich also needs to do something to show that he should continue in the Orioles starting rotation. In Povich’s case, he should probably be staying in there for the remainder of this lost season but if he can’t demonstrate he’s better than he’s been, then the team shouldn’t pencil him in for 2026. Things are mostly in the realm of acceptable for Povich except that he’s got a .291 batting average against, an unbelievably bad number. Bad luck? Bad fielding behind him, particularly an Orioles outfield defense that’s among the league’s worst?
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If the Orioles had managed to keep their foot on the gas over the past week, going 4-2 instead of 2-4, the dream of the hot streak to get back into postseason contention might feel a bit less unlikely. Not that 29-38 would have been so much better than 27-40, but still, it would be better.
That’s toast. Series like this one against the Angels will involve Orioles players trying to show us that it’s worth counting on them for 2026 – or, for the ones whose contract status does not grant the Orioles any control of them for 2026, show other teams that it’s worth trading for them in 2025. If those things happen, the Orioles will probably win some more games along the way. If they don’t, they’ll fall back down to a 100+ loss pace and they’ll probably stay there.