The Orioles face off with AL West cellar dwellers as they make their last every trip to Oakland before the A’s move to Sacramento next season
After shutting down the AL West-leading Mariners during the week, the Orioles head to Oakland to take on the last-place Athletics. This series marks the end of an era, as the A’s pending move to Sacramento next season means this is the last time the Orioles will play in Oakland Coliseum. Dating back to the A’s first season in Oakland in 1968, the Orioles are 144-146 in the Coliseum. Perhaps the Orioles’ fondest memories in Oakland came back in 1970, when Jim Palmer pitched a complete game to finish off a three-game sweep in the ALCS. Should the O’s achieve another sweep this weekend, they’ll close their account in Oakland with a winning record.
Last year’s visit to Oakland was one of the Orioles’ most dominant series of the season. Baltimore outscored Oakland 28-7 in a three-game sweep of the A’s last August—including a 12-1 win in the series finale. That last game saw Gunnar Henderson go 4-5 with two RBIs and 11 total bases—as he chose to leg out a second double instead of completing a cycle. The entire set was a showcase for the eventual AL Rookie of the Year, as Gunnar went 8-14 with two doubles, two HRs, a triple, six runs and five RBIs.
While A’s are once again on the AL’s worst teams, they are a much better team in the Coliseum. After sweeping vs. the Angels this week, the A’s are just two games below .500 in Oakland this season. A big part of that success at home is better pitching, as the A’s team ERA is nearly a run lower in Oakland than on the road. Those splits hold true for the A’s three projected starters—who collectively have a 3.89 ERA at home vs. a 4.16 ERA on the road.
This series will also give the O’s front office and Birdland a chance to scout Athletics’ reliever Mason Miller— a player heavily linked to the Orioles as a potential trade target. Miller possess the hardest fastball in baseball, with an average velocity of 101mph. He’s used that fastball to become the only pitcher to rank in the 100th percentile in both whiff rate and K rate this season—posting 66 Ks in 37.2 innings. Miller only made one appearance in the teams’ previous meeting in Baltimore, striking out two and earning a save in a 3-2 Oakland win in extras.
Game 1: Friday, July 5th, 9:40pm ET, MASN 2
Probable pitchers: RHP Albert Suárez (4-2, 2.43 ERA, 45 Ks) vs. LHP Hogan Harris (1-2, 3.18 ERA, 31 Ks)
With the return of Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin returns to the bullpen and Albert Suárez keeps his spot as he gets the ball to open up the series. After struggling in back-to-back starts vs. the Yankees and Astros, many thought it might be time for Suárez to make his way back to the bullpen. Instead, the 34-year-old righty responded with his best start of the season last time out vs. Texas, throwing 6.0 shutout innings in a 2-1 Orioles win.
Suárez struggled in his previous outing against the Athletics, pitching 4.2 innings while allowing four runs on seven hits in a game the O’s lost 7-6. The matchup between the journeyman Venezuelan and the A’s pits weakness against weakness. Suárez doesn’t strike out a lot of batters—ranking only in the 21st percentile with a 17.9% K rate. Meanwhile, Oakland hitters have the second-most strikeouts in the MLB and struggle to put the ball in play with a .232 xBA (second worst). The good news for Suárez is that the majority of the Athletics struggle with changueps and his cambio has been his go-to out pitch this season.
The 27-year-old Hogan Harris will face the Orioles for the first time in his career, and the young lefty has a mountain of a task in front of him. The Orioles are tied for the league lead with 36 HRs against left-handed pitching and are second in the MLB with a .458 slugging percentage against southpaws.
Harris relies primarily on his four-seamer and curveball—and that pitch mix presents an advantageous matchup for some of the Orioles’ best lefty mashers. Adley Rutschman, who has a .400 average and .629 slugging percentage against lefties this season, is also hitting .365 with a .615 slugging percentage on four-seam fastballs. Harris will also need to be careful not to hang any curves to famous lefty-killer Ryan Mountcastle, who’s hitting .409 with a .773 slugging percentage against curves in 2024.
Game 2: Saturday, July 6th, 4:07pm ET, MASN2
Probable pitchers: LHP Cade Povich (1-2, 4.05 ERA, 17 Ks) vs. RHP Luis Medina (1-3, 4.80 ERA, 22 Ks)
Game 2 sees Cade Povich making his sixth career start, while Luis Medina makes his seventh start of this season. After giving up six runs in his MLB debut, Povich has largely settled into life in the majors. Over his last four starts, the young lefty has a 2.53 ERA over 21.1 innings with 15 Ks.
While the results for Povich have improved, the path to those results has been inconsistent. A strikeout artist in the minors, he’s had some starts where he’s racked up the Ks and others where they’ve been hard to come by. Povich struggled with walks in an otherwise strong outing vs. New York, and then gave up two home runs against the Rangers last weekend. Limiting the long ball will be key for Povich’s success against Oakland. The A’s have a bottom 5 average against lefties this year, but an above average slugging percentage—meaning when they make contact they tend to hit it far.
Medina got a late start to his second season in the MLB due to a knee injury that saw his start the season on the IL. The 25-year-old from the Dominican Republic is a flame-thrower, with an average fastball velocity of 96mph and the ability to run it up to 99mph. Even with that hard fastball, his best pitch has been his slider—with a .174 xBA and 29.2% whiff rate on the breaking ball. Medina will have to be careful about where he leads that slider against Ryan O’Hearn and Gunnar Henderson, as both are in the MLB top 10 for slugging percentage against sliders this season.
Game 3: Sunday, July 7th, 4:07pm ET, MASN2
Probable pitchers: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (10-3, 3.45 ERA, 97 Ks) vs. RHP Mitch Spence (5-4, 4.15 ERA, 61 Ks)
The Orioles flame-throwing Texan will make his first and only career start in Oakland Coliseum when he takes the bump on Sunday. The A’s were G-Rod’s opponent in his second ever career start, and he didn’t exactly acquit himself well in that outing. Back in April of 2023 in Camden Yards, Grayson allowed five runs over 4.1 innings while punching out six and issuing four walks.
The second-year star pitcher will look to make a memorable debut in Oakland as he tries to iron out some of the issues he’s had on the road. G-Rod has a 2.27 ERA with a .209 BAA in Camden Yards this season, but a 4.60 ERA and .257 BAA away from Baltimore. When Grayson has struggled it’s been more so in right-on-right matchups this season. This matchup against the A’s could be the get-right game he needs to start to reverse those reverse splits. Oakland is 24th in batting average in right-on-right matchups and have a 27.6% K-rate in those situations.
Mitch Spence is the only one of this series starters who pitched in the series in Baltimore this season. Back in April he was working out of the bullpen and pitched three scoreless innings in Oakland’s extra-inning win. Since moving to the rotation, Spence has a 4.10 ERA, .281 BAA and is averaging 5.1 innings per start. Spence has been even better as a starter in the Coliseum, posting a 3.62 ERA in five starts in Oakland. Spence is a cutter-first pitcher, which should be music to Cedric Mullins’ ears. The Orioles CF is hitting .476 with a 1.048 slugging percentage against cutter this season.