It’s four games in three days, get ready for the Blue Jays
The Orioles and Blue Jays kick off a four-game series today with a doubleheader that includes a makeup game from the May 14th rainout. These are two teams on different paths. The Orioles have already traded for a relief pitcher and a starting pitcher to solidify the team down the playoff stretch. And the Blue Jays, mired in last place in the division, have started trading away players with an eye toward the future.
So far the Blue Jays have traded Yimi Garcia to the Mariners, Nate Pearson to the Cubs, and Danny Jansen to the Red Sox. They’ve received a variety of prospects in return. And they might not be done unloading.
Even with the roster turmoil, the Blue Jays are coming to town after completing a sweep of the Rangers over the weekend. That series included a complete game performance from Kevin Gausman on Saturday. The former Oriole is having a down year but if the Blue Jays wanted to leave him behind in Baltimore I would not complain. Gausman is not scheduled to pitch in the series.
So why are the Blue Jays in last place? They don’t score enough runs, for one thing. Only four American League teams are averaging fewer runs scored per game than the Blue Jays. Vladimir Guerrero is having an incredible year, but aside from him, their regular players range from roughly league-average to worse.
Their starting rotation has also underperformed with Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Berríos all putting up ERAs north of 4.00. In the case of Gausman and Kikuchi, well north. And their relief pitching has been collectively bad with a 4.95 ERA and 1.349 WHIP. Garcia had been one of their more solid bullpen pieces but he’s gone. Chad Green has also been very solid.
This series is the third time the Blue Jays and Orioles have met this year and they are all all tied with a 3-3 record.
Game 1 – Monday, 3:05 PM, MASN
Probable pitchers: RHP Zach Eflin (5-7, 4.09 ERA, 87 SO) vs. RHP Yariel Rodríguez (1-3, 3.69 ERA, 42 SO)
It’s a single-admission doubleheader and game one will see the Orioles’ debut of Zach Eflin, traded from the Rays just a few days ago. Eflin is in his ninth major league season and actually just faced the Blue Jays in his last start with the Rays. In that start, he pitched 5.2 innings and gave up two runs. I would happily accept that again today.
Yariel Rodríguez is a rookie who has made nine starts for the Blue Jays with a more than respectable 3.69 ERA. He’s done that despite walking 19 batters in 39 innings (4.4 per 9 IP). But he also strikes out nearly 10 batters per nine to help offset that. He has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his nine starts this year.
Game 2 – Monday, 30 minutes after end of game 1, MASN
Probable pitchers: LHP Cade Povich (1-4, 6.27 ERA, 24 SO) vs. RHP Bowden Francis (3-2, 5.82 ERA, 34 SO)
Povich has not been officially named the starter, but the beat writers have confirmed that he will be the 27th man of the doubleheader, called up to make his eighth start of the season. Povich made his MLB debut against Toronto and it did not go well. He has shown flashes of promise since being called up but it’s mostly not gone well. Maybe tonight he’ll do better.
Francis has made three starts this year but has mostly worked out of the bullpen. He’s been working on bringing his ERA down from crazy high to regular high after giving up 12 runs in his first two season starts. He generally works just one to two innings at a time so he will probably not be long for this game.
Game 3 – Tuesday, 6:35, MASN
Probable pitchers: Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.45 ERA, 121 SO) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (8-9, 3.78 ERA, 112 SO)
The Orioles have not announced a pitcher for this game but Corbin Burnes will be on regular rest, so I am going with Burnes until someone tells me otherwise. We know what to expect from Burnes this year. He’ll pitch 6-7 innings and give up 1-3 runs. He will give up a homer. He’ll keep his team in the game.
Chris Bassitt signed a three-year contract with the Blue Jays before the 2023 season and he was a pitcher I thought the Orioles should have gone after. He had a very good ‘23 but has taken a bit of a dip this year. He is still having a solid year with an ERA+ of 107. He is walking more and giving up more hits than he did prior to this year. He is having an especially rough July with a 6.23 ERA in four starts.
Game 4 – Wednesday, 12:35, MASN
Probable pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez (12-4, 3.82 ERA, 122 SO) vs. RHP Yusei Kikuchi (4-9, 4.75 ERA, 130 SO)
The Orioles have also not announced a pitcher for this game but it will be Rodriguez’s turn in the rotation. Grayson is less reliable than Burnes but has been the second-best starter on the team. He was having a great game last time out vs the Padres but couldn’t record an out in the sixth inning and gave up two runs.
Kikuchi started the year pretty well but has been abysmal the past two months. Since June 1st, he has pitched to a 6.42 ERA in 11 starts. Batters are OPS’ing .838 against him in the span. This seems like a guy the Orioles will have a hard time with, but maybe I just need to have a little hope.