With Toronto now out of competition, a number of players have been sold off to other teams.
Déjà vu much? It hasn’t been a week since the Orioles last face faced the Blue Jays, and already their neighbor to the north looks very different. At the deadline, the Blue Jays traded Yimi García to the Mariners, Nate Pearson to the Cubs, Danny Jansen to the Red Sox, Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros, Justin Turner to the Mariners and several others.
At 51-61, the Blue Jays are last in the AL East and are looking ahead to next season. They’ve had an average offense, measured in hits and runs, and they’ve been one of the worst teams at hitting home runs. Their pitching has been bad: with a 4.64 ERA, only the White Sox (and their 21-game losing streak) have allowed more runs. Of their regular rotation, only Chris Bassitt has an above-average ERA+, and it’s barely above, at 101.
When the Orioles faced Toronto last week for a four-game series, they saw Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. This time it’ll be Francis, Bassitt and old friend Kevin Gausman, all three of whom have ERAs north of 4.00. It’s former Oriole Gausman’s worst season since 2019 but he did pitch a complete game against the Rangers a few weeks ago.
This series makes the fourth time the Blue Jays and Orioles have met this year and it’ll be the last one. The Orioles have an edge in the season series, at 6-4.
Game 1 – Tuesday, 7:07 PM, MASN
Grayson Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86 ERA, 130 SO) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (8-10, 4.02 ERA, 115 SO)
Grayson Rodriguez has been hit-or-miss this season but with his stat line you can’t deny he’s been effective: he’s tied with Atlanta’s Chris Sale and KC’s Seth Lugo for the MLB lead in wins and is Top 25 in strikeouts. His last time out against Toronto was last Wednesday, when he allowed three earned runs on six hits (one home run) in six innings.
Chris Bassitt’s stats haven’t been flashy but he’s been Toronto’s most consistent starter this year. His hit and walk rate are up significantly from last year. Bassitt’s last time out was against the Orioles, as it happens, when he gave up five runs in just four innings.
Game 2 – Wednesday, 7:07 PM, MASN
LHP Trevor Rogers (2-10, 4.76 ERA, 88 SO) vs. RHP Bowden Francis (4-3, 5.64 ERA, 36 SO)
So far, Rogers has not been the acquisition of dreams the Orioles hoped, but it’s still early. Against Cleveland last week, Rogers allowed five runs in 4.1 innings, but Cleveland is really good, as we saw this weekend. The lefty’s hit and walk rates are pretty inflated, at over one hit per inning and four walks per game. Rogers has faced Toronto once in his career, a five-run, three-inning appearance in June ’21.
Bowden Francis is a longman who’s been thrust into a starter role of necessity. His last start was also against Baltimore, when he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings on six hits, two of them home runs.
Game 3 – Thursday, 7:07 PM, MASN
RHP Dean Kremer (4-8, 4.39 ERA, 75 SO) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (9-8, 4.56 ERA, 119 SO)
Dean Kremer is a little like a box of chocolates. Over his last seven starts, he’s interspersed good starts and bad. He threw five shutout innings against Seattle on July 3, held the Yankees to two runs on July 14 and allowed one earned run to San Diego on July 27. But between those, he gave up five, five, four, and three runs, respectively.
Despite Kevin Gausman’s regression in ’24, this is still a good matchup for Toronto. In his last five starts against Baltimore, Gausman has four excellent outings and one bad one. The last time he faced Baltimore, in June, he got bombed for six runs in 6.1 innings.