The Orioles kick off their 2025 campaign against their former slugger in his new home digs.
Grab the poutine and crack open a Molson. A new baseball season has arrived and, for the first time ever, the Orioles are starting it in Canada.
Last year the O’s began their season with a feeling of unfinished business after getting swept out of the 2023 playoffs. This year that feeling is even more, um, unfinisheder, following the Birds’ second straight one-and-done postseason series sweep.
Maybe someday the Orioles, who now hold the longest active postseason losing streak at 10 in a row, will win a playoff game again. But before they get there, they’ll have to navigate a grueling 162-game that begins this afternoon at Rogers Centre. And they’ll have to do so after losing their ace and their top slugger in free agency, the latter of whom they’ll immediately face off against.
Anthony Santander, fresh off a career-high 44-homer season, left the Orioles this winter for a five-year, $92.5 million deal with Toronto. Now installed as the Blue Jays’ expected #3 hitter, Santander has a chance to quickly become a thorn in the side of his former teammates. It’s a good bet he’ll hit his first homer(s) as a Blue Jay sometime during this series, hopefully in a losing effort for his team.
The duo of Santander and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could form a potent 1-2 punch at least for this year, before Guerrero heads into free agency after failing to agree to a new contract with the Jays. One guy who did was catcher Alejandro Kirk, who last week agreed to a five-year extension that will keep him in Toronto until 2030. The rest of the Jays lineup includes some familiar veterans trying to bounce back from tough seasons — Bo Bichette, George Springer — and defensively talented new acquisitions like Andrés Giménez and Myles Straw.
In the bullpen, the Jays brought in a new closer who has an axe to grind with the Orioles. Veteran Jeff Hoffman initially agreed to terms with the Birds this offseason before the results of his physical convinced them to scuttle the deal. He landed with the Jays for three years and $33 million and admitted “there’s going to be a little bit of a chip” on his shoulder when he faces the O’s.
The Orioles aren’t exactly the picture of health these days. They will play this series and their next one without the services of their most valuable player, Gunnar Henderson, who is sidelined with an intercostal strain that he suffered in his third spring training game in February. It’s not ideal. Joining Henderson on the season-opening IL are starter Grayson Rodriguez and reliever Andrew Kittredge, so the Orioles’ depth is being tested right away.
This is just the second time the Orioles have opened a season against the Blue Jays, the previous coming in Baltimore in 2017. The O’s won that one on a walkoff, 11th-inning home run by Mark Trumbo.
Game 1: Thursday, 3:07 PM, MASN2
RHP Zach Eflin (10-9, 3.59 ERA overall in 2024) vs. RHP José Berríos (16-11, 3.60 in 2024)
OK, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Zach Eflin is not Corbin Burnes. The 30-year-old righty shouldn’t try to fill the giant shoes of last year’s Opening Day O’s starter and rental-year ace. But of course, if he’d like to try to replicate Burnes’ Orioles debut last year by retiring 18 of the 19 batters he faces, I’d be just fine with that.
Eflin was a godsend for the Orioles after the club acquired him from Tampa Bay at last year’s trade deadline. Amidst a starting rotation riddled with season-ending injuries and a surprising August slump from Burnes, Eflin carried the staff with a 2.60 ERA and quality starts in seven of his nine games. His WAR with the Orioles (1.8) was twice what it had been with the Rays, despite making 10 fewer starts. Granted, it’s not a large sample size, but Eflin showed more than enough last year to earn the Opening Day nod in the post-Burnes era.
The Blue Jays will counter with a familiar O’s nemesis, the veteran Berríos, who is making his fifth career Opening Day start and third with Toronto. Berríos carries a lifetime 2.95 ERA in 16 starts against Baltimore, and began his career 10-0 against the Orioles until they finally defeated him in 2023, his eighth major league season. Berríos, 30, is as reliable as can be, posting an above-average ERA+ in every full season of his career aside from a hiccup in 2022.
Berríos is seemingly the only Toronto pitcher who’s ever had success against Blue Jay killer Ryan Mountcastle, holding him to a 2-for-22 career performance. On the other hand, Adley Rutschman (13-for-22, 3 HRs) and Ryan O’Hearn (10-for-31, 2 HRs) have historically roughed him up. Expect Canadian native Tyler O’Neill to be in the lineup for his O’s debut, looking to homer on Opening Day for the sixth consecutive year.
Game 2: Friday, 7:07 PM, Apple TV+
RHP Charlie Morton (8-10, 4.19 for Braves in 2024) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (14-11, 3.83 in 2024)
If you were jonesing for more Apple TV+ broadcasts of the Orioles this year, you don’t have to wait long. The season’s second game will air nationally on the streaming service, and the pitching matchup is a guy who is ancient Orioles history versus a guy who is just ancient.
The 41-year-old Morton, the second-oldest active MLB player behind Justin Verlander, spurned retirement to sign a $15 million contract. I would do the same, honestly. Morton spent the last four years with the Braves, with whom he also began his career back in 2008, and in between he traveled to four other teams, never finding real success until his early 30s with Houston. He’s settled in as a reliable, league-average starter who still strikes people out, though he’s at the age where it could all fall apart at any time. His O’s debut will come in a mostly unfamiliar place. Of Morton’s 382 career starts, somehow he’s made only two at Rogers Centre, and none since 2019.
It’s now been seven years since the Orioles traded Gausman, their former first-round pick and #1 prospect. It wasn’t until after he left Baltimore — and brief stints in Atlanta and Cincinnati — that he realized his potential, parlaying an All-Star 2021 season with the Giants into a five-year, $110 million deal with Toronto. The first three years of that deal have been as steady as they come, with Gausman making exactly 31 starts each season and posting above- to well-above average ERAs. Last year, though, his strikeout rate fell to 8.1 — his lowest since 2018 — after a league-leading 11.5 K/9 in 2023.
Gausman has faced his former team seven times, going 2-4 with a 4.75 ERA. Last year he threw two quality starts against the Orioles but got roughed up June 3, giving up six runs in 6.1 innings as his now-teammate Santander took him deep.
Game 3: Saturday, 3:07 PM, MASN2
RHP Dean Kremer (8-10, 4.10 in 2024) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (2-4, 3.95 for Rangers in 2024)
If only Scherzer had been moved up a day or Morton back, we’d have a showdown of the 40+ graybeards. Alas, maybe next time.
Even the future Hall of Famer Scherzer, one of the greatest pitchers of his generation, isn’t immune to the ravages of time. Last year, a litany of ailments — a thumb injury, a hamstring strain, shoulder fatigue — limited him to just eight starts with the Rangers, two of which came against the Orioles (they beat him both times). He hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2021. But, like Morton, he’s not ready to hang ’em up quite yet, and who’s going to tell him otherwise? Certainly not me.
The Blue Jays are taking a $15.5 million chance that Max stays healthy, and there are certainly worse ways to spend money. While Scherzer, 40, may no longer be the fire-breathing, shutdown ace of his heyday, he’s capable of dominance every now and then.
Hey look, a (comparatively) young guy! At age 29, Kremer is the only under-30 pitcher scheduled to start in this series for either team. Despite his relative youth, Kremer is the grizzled veteran of the O’s rotation, the only one of the current five who’s been with the team for longer than a year. Now in his sixth season, Orioles fans know what to expect from him. He’s usually not going to be great. He’s usually not going to be terrible. He’s just…Dean. He’ll pitch a few innings, give up a couple of runs, and be on his way.
Kremer has made 11 career starts against the Blue Jays, his most against any opponent aside from the Yankees. He has a 4.82 ERA in those games, giving up 11 home runs in 56 innings. Guerrero Jr. alone has accounted for five of those dingers, crushing Kremer to the tune of a 1.364 OPS in 30 career PAs. Note to Dean: pitch around Vlad.
Game 4: Sunday, 1:37 PM, MASN2
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (MLB debut) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (10-14, 4.16 in 2024)
The eyes of Birdland — and Japan — will be on Sugano, the reigning Nippon Professional Baseball MVP who is making the jump to MLB at age 35. Sugano’s track record in his homeland is undeniable. In 12 NPB seasons, he went 136-75 with a 2.45 ERA, including 42 complete games and 22 shutouts. Sugano’s six-pitch arsenal and impeccable command has the Orioles giddy, but he’ll need to prove he can succeed against major league hitters without high-octane velocity. I’m fascinated to see how his opening act plays out.
Bassitt, entering his third year with Toronto, was excellent in his debut campaign but dipped into negative WAR territory last year (-0.1 bWAR). Struggles with command were the main culprit; Bassitt’s 3.7 BB/9 was his worst rate since 2016 and he plunked a league-leading 16 batters. His two outings against the O’s last year were polar opposites; on July 30 they roughed him up for five runs in four innings, but one week later he twirled seven strong frames and struck out nine. Lefties hounded Bassitt for an .877 OPS last year compared to .619 for righties, so this would be an ideal time for Heston Kjerstad to get a start instead of O’Neill (who is 1-for-14 lifetime against Bassitt).