Both of these teams are running out of time to prove that they are, in fact, playoff contenders. A series win this weekend would be helpful.
This is the series version of the Spider-Man pointing meme. Both the Orioles and Braves entered the season with World Series ambitions. But more than halfway through the year they each find themselves on the outskirts of the playoff discussion with time running short.
Atlanta should be in a better spot. They have outscored opponents by nine runs on the season. That is largely due to their pitching staff, which has been solid, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and .235 batting average against. But health is getting to be an issue there. Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and AJ Smith-Shawyer are all on the IL. That’s 60% of their projected rotation all on the shelf.
It will be interesting to see how that impacts the Braves bullpen, which has been given the lightest workload of any unit in MLB. They average just under 3.1 innings of relief per game. By comparison, the Orioles relievers average nearly four full innings per game.
It’s a different story on offense. Their lineup is in the bottom third of MLB for runs scored, slugging percentage, and OPS. Ronald Acuña Jr. has been great (1.047 OPS), but has only played in 37 games. Matt Olson (137 OPS+), Sean Murphy (116 OPS+), and Marcell Ozuna (114 OPS+) have been good as well. But they expected more from Ozzie Albies (72 OPS+), Austin Riley (107 OPS+), Alex Verdugo (65 OPS+, DFA’d this week), and Michael Harris II (57 OPS+).
Apart from the aforementioned starting pitchers on the IL, the Braves are quite healthy. None of their everyday players are missing. But you can add Reynaldo López to the list of hurlers missing. He transitioned to a starting role last year and had a 1.99 ERA over 135.2 innings. Unfortunately, he is yet to pitch this year, and his time table for return is murky..
Game 1: Friday, July 4th, 7:15 p.m., MASN/MASN+
RHP Charlie Morton (4-7, 5.63 ERA) vs. RHP Spencer Strider (3-6, 3.86 ERA)
The Orioles lost Morton’s most recent start against the Rays, the first time they have dropped one of his outings since May 17. But he still inched his ERA down ever so slightly, allowing three runs over five innings. The 41-year-old has been much, much better, and at this point he has to think he is positioning himself to be traded to a contender that could use his postseason experience at the back of their rotation.
June was a good month for Strider. He made six starts, compiled a 3.60 ERA/3.01 FIP and struck out 42 over 35 innings. But he is not back to his 2023 form just yet. The righty is walking nearly 10% of batters he faces and giving up big exit velocities.
Game 2: Saturday, July 5th, 4:10 p.m., MASN 2/MASN+
RHP Dean Kremer (7-7, 4.27 ERA) vs. TBD
Kremer has really righted the ship the last two months. Since the start of May he has a 2.98 ERA/3.09 FIP, striking out 58, walking 17, and allowing just five home runs over 66.1 innings. His season ERA is now just a touch below his career mark (4.28). His goal to toss 200 innings this year probably won’t happen, but he has been a beast for the O’s rotation recently.
It seems like this will be a bullpen game for Atlanta. Schwellenbach’s recent injury has put them in a bind for this start, and they are running thin on quality arms.
Game 3: Sunday, July 6th, 11:35 a.m., Roku
LHP Trevor Rogers (1-0, 2.05 ERA) vs. RHP Grant Holmes (4-7, 3.47 ERA)
Rogers has made four starts for the Orioles this year, and has been quite good in three of them. That includes his last appearance against the Rangers, when he gave up two runs over 5.1 innings. The lefty’s bounce back this year has been a pleasant surprise, made even better by the fact that he is under team control for 2026.
Atlanta has lucked out with how good Holmes has been this season. The 29-year-old was a late bloomer, just making it to the majors last season, where he worked mostly out of the bullpen. There could be some regression coming for him, as he has walked more batters than anyone in MLB and sports a 4.16 FIP, well above his actual ERA. But it’s not like the Orioles have exposed too many opposing starters this year.