Atlanta comes to town on the heels of a 4-6 skid in their last ten, including dropping three of four to the Nationals.
Well, the Orioles just dispatched the Tampa Bay Rays with extreme prejudice, pulling off their first-ever four-game sweep at the Trop. Now they have to turn their sights to tougher opponents. That includes visiting the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend, who are holding onto a 2 1/2-game cushion for the AL East lead. But before that: two series against the NL East.
Baseball is very top-heavy right now. In the AL East, the Yankees and the Orioles have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, with 12 1/2 games lying between the O’s and third-place Boston. In run differential, too, the Yanks (+111) and the O’s (+104) rank No. 1 and No. 3 in MLB right now, with Boston way back (+30). The same is happening in the NL East, where the Philadelphia Phillies, with an MLB No. 2 run differential of +108, are unexpectedly nine games ahead of Atlanta in the NL East (+31 in run differential themselves).
Which brings me to the identity of the Orioles’ next-series opponent. It’s been an odd year for the Braves so far, who at one point this season were considered the No. 1 team in the game. They’ve struggled with injuries—haven’t we all?—and their lineup isn’t performing like they expected. No, but really, it’s an almost-historic event to lose both last year’s MVP in Ronald Acuña (out for knee surgery), and a 20-game winner in Spencer Strider (20-3 last season!, Tommy John) for the rest of the season. But there’s also been Angel Perdomo (also recovering from Tommy John), A.J. Minter (15-day IL, left hip inflammation) AJ Smith-Shawwer (10-day IL, oblique strain), and Tyler Matzek (setback in his recovery from Tommy John last year).
Bright spots still can be found on what is usually a stacked roster. Pitching remains a strength even with all the injuries. Chris Sale, 35, is 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA (the O’s won’t see him). Max Fried continues to excel (6-2, 2.93 ERA) and nine-year veteran starter Reynaldo López is having a career year (the O’s will face both). The Braves have a strong closer in Raisel Iglesias.
On offense, other than Marcell Ozuna, hitting .312/.385/.603 with 18 home runs out of the DH spot, the Braves look more middle-of-the-pack sans Acuña. Backstop Travis d’Arnaud is hitting .246 with a .765 OPS. Two-time All Star and Silver Slugger Matt Olson is OPS’ing .751—fine, but not for him. Ozzie Albies (2B), Orlando Arcía (SS) and Matt Riley (3B) have a combined 13 home runs between them.
True, being in the National League has provided the Braves “a lot of leeway”: only four NL teams are more than one game over .500 (!!!), so even at 35-28, Atlanta’s season is far from sunk. But consider that last year at this time, they were 16 games over .500 and 4 1/2 ahead in the division; now they’re seven games over and a sizeable nine games out of first place. They’re coming off a miserable series in Washington, D.C. that saw them lose three of four games. They’re not playing superlative baseball right now.
Game 1: Tuesday, June 11, 6:35 ET
Max Fried (6-2, 2.93 ERA, 67 K) v. Albert Suárez (2-0, 1.83 ERA, 33 K)
Max Fried has been a stalwart for Atlanta as usual. In 12 starts so far, the 2022 Cy Young runner-up has delivered only one bad outing, back in April against Arizona. The lefty has a .201 average against and a 1.02 WHIP. Since 2019, only one pitcher, Gerrit Cole, has more wins than Fried.
Another turn on the mound for “old man Albert Suárez.” Back in 2016, the 13-year veteran pitcher Wade LeBlanc explained to reporters, “The whole premise of pitching is to keep the ball off the barrel,” and that’s what Suárez, amazingly, is managing to do. His 5.3% barrel rate is in the 92nd percentile in the league, as he’s flummoxing hitters with his offspeed stuff. The changeup is the go-to pitch for now.
Game 2: Wednesday, June 12, 6:35 ET
Probable pitchers: Spencer Swellenbach (0-2, 8.38 ERA, 9 K) v. Cade Povich (0-1, 10.13 ERA, 2 K)
This is a game of youthful inexperience on both sides. Spencer Swellenbach is making his third career start after being pressed into service on May 29. So far, not so great: he allowed three runs in five innings against Washington, and six runs in 4.2 innings last week against Boston. You don’t want to allow better than 11 hits per game, but that’s what Swellenbach is doing for now. The right hander out of Nebraska has a five-pitch mix featuring a four-seamer, slider, cutter and curveball that he throws in nearly equal measure.
It would have been fun to see lefty Cade Povich face Max Fried, a guy he’s often (flatteringly) compared to. Instead, maybe the rookie will watch his doppelganger from the dugout on Tuesday and imitate the good parts on Wednesday. Povich’s first career start last week against Toronto was pretty rough, as Povich struggled to limit walks and gave up a three-run homer to Vlad Guerrero Jr. But afterwards the team brass said all the right things: an “impressive” first outing that showed a lot of “poise.” The young lefty does have intriguing stuff. Let’s see if he can command it better.
Game 3: Thursday, June 13, 1:05 ET
Probable pitchers: Reynaldo López (3-2, 1.85 ERA, 62 K) v. Cole Irvin (6-2, 2.87 ERA, 43 K)
If Game 2 is the “youthful inexperience” matchup, Game 3 is the “30-year-old veterans who have unexpectedly found some secret sauce late in their careers but whose ERA’s appear to be outperforming their stuff” matchup. In his ninth season, Reynaldo López, 30, has unexpectedly been Atlanta’s best starter while putting up career-best numbers. Owner of a 4.28 ERA over seven seasons with the White Sox, in 11 starts with Atlanta he’s got a 1.85 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s got superlative run value and vertical movement on his fastball and slider, and has thrown an effective curveball into the mix this year. Nonetheless, peripherals show he’s been allowing moderately hard contact.
The lefty Cole Irvin is also putting up the best numbers of his career to date, including a 2.87 ERA and 129 ERA+. His FIP of 3.64 shows some luck, and his peripheral stats show he’s sustained some hard contact, despite the good results. But Irvin has also reshaped his fastball, which has unexpectedly turned into a real weapon, with a +5 run value, and limited the walks. Let the good times keep rolling.