The Brewers aren’t very good. But the Orioles have a habit of making bad teams look a lot better.
After languishing through an 0-6 homestand that was so humiliating it got their manager fired, the Orioles head to Milwaukee hoping to change their luck. They might not play any better, but at least if they need a few beers to drown their sorrows, they’re in the right place.
The last time Orioles fans gave much consideration to the Brewers may have been February 2024, when the two teams matched up on the Corbin Burnes trade. The deal was a one-year success for the Birds before Burnes left in free agency, but the Brewers’ return has been left wanting. The injury-riddled DL Hall pitched only 13 games for Milwaukee last year and none this season, while Joey Ortiz — after an impressive rookie campaign in 2024 — has suffered a horrific sophomore slump, batting .170/.223/.218 with a -1.3 bWAR in 44 games.
The Brewers have quietly been one of MLB’s best teams in recent years, winning three of the past four NL Central crowns, but they enter this series with a sub-.500 record at 22-25. Milwaukee’s offense in particular has had a lot of trouble of late. Their 5-2 win over the Twins yesterday was only their second game this month in which they scored five runs. They had been shut out in four of their previous five games.
Veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins has paced the Brewers’ lineup with a team-leading .838 OPS, while second baseman Brice Turang has been the club’s most valuable position player with a 1.7 bWAR. The slick-fielding Turang won not only a Gold Glove but a Platinum Glove last year as the National League’s best defender. On the other end of the spectrum, former NL MVP Christian Yelich has been limited mostly to DH duty and carries just a .644 OPS, while 21-year-old outfielder Jackson Chourio has taken a step back from his rookie breakout last year.
The Brewers also have a rookie third baseman named Caleb Durbin, whom I mention only because he somehow leads the majors with seven hit-by-pitches despite playing only 28 games. This guy is a baseball magnet.
Milwaukee’s pitching ranks roughly in the middle of the pack. They’ve cobbled together a patchwork rotation behind ace Freddy Peralta, whom the O’s won’t face in this series. Their bullpen is anchored by first-year closer Trevor Megill and stellar right-handers Abner Uribe (1.31 ERA) and Nick Mears (0.51). If the O’s are trailing late, as they often are, they’ll face an uphill climb trying to rally back against those guys.
We’re well past the point of saying things like, “This is a series the Orioles should win.” No, by now, the Orioles should be considered the underdogs in pretty much every series for the rest of the year, except maybe against the Rockies and White Sox. Even a struggling Brewers team has a decided advantage over the Birds. But maybe the O’s can cobble together a competent performance for a day to give Tony Mansolino his first MLB managerial win.
Game 1: Monday, 7:40 PM ET, MASN
RHP Dean Kremer (3-5, 5.36) vs. RHP Quinn Priester (1-2, 4.59)
After tossing back-to-back seven-inning gems to start to rejuvenate his season, Kremer regressed last time with a 5.2-inning, four-run performance in a loss to the Twins. His previous two interleague starts this year did not go well; he coughed up six runs apiece to the Diamondbacks on April 9 and Nationals on April 22.
On top of that, the Brewers have historically had Kremer’s number. They clubbed him for six runs in a 2023 outing and eight runs in a blowout last year. In the latter start, Kremer served up home runs to Hoskins and Jake Bauers. So, yeah, there’s not much reason to be confident that Kremer will be the guy to snap the Orioles’ six-game losing streak.
Priester, a former first round pick of the Pirates, is on his third team in the past two seasons. The Brewers acquired him from Boston in early April to add depth to their injury-riddled rotation, and he’s been a serviceable if unremarkable back-end starter. Priester has yet to work more than five innings in any of his seven games, so the Brewers’ middle relievers should be pressed into early duty. Or, knowing the Orioles offense, he’ll pitch like eight shutout innings against them.
Game 2: Tuesday, 7:40 PM ET, MASN2
TBD vs. RHP Logan Henderson (2-0, 2.45)
Henderson, the Brewers’ 12th-ranked prospect, has impressed in his first two major league starts, winning both while striking out 16 batters and walking just two. He’s primarily a fastball and changeup guy; those have accounted for 86% of his major league pitches so far, though he also can toss in a cutter or slider on rare occasions. His arrival signaled the end of Gunnar’s reign of being the only active Henderson in the majors. The two will battle in this game for Henderson supremacy.
The Orioles haven’t announced a starter for this game, though they could choose to bring back Chayce McDermott, who pitched three innings in Game 2 of the Birds’ doubleheader last Wednesday. Brandon Young would also be a possibility if he weren’t out with an injury for Triple-A Norfolk.
Game 3: Wednesday, 1:10 PM ET, MASN2, MLBN (out-of-market)
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (4-3, 3.08) vs. RHP Chad Patrick (2-4, 3.35)
After Zach Eflin’s blowup against the Nats yesterday, Sugano stands alone as the only O’s starter who has yet to suffer a truly disastrous outing this year. And yes, I realize there’s a very good chance I’m jinxing him by writing that, but whatever. Sugano hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his nine starts, and he’s pitched five innings or more in all but two. The Orioles even have a winning record (5-4) in his starts. Sugano’s impressive performance in his first season in the U.S. is one of the few highlights of the Orioles’ year.
The Brewers will counter with a second consecutive rookie right-hander, Patrick, who has been a pleasant surprise since breaking camp in the rotation. His nine starts are tied with Peralta for the most on the team and he has more than pulled his weight with a 124 ERA+. Not bad for a guy who twice was traded for utility infielders before making his MLB debut. Patrick’s peripherals, though, aren’t as friendly, as he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys and batters tend to make hard contact. At some point a team will string together a bunch of runs against him. Are the Orioles that team? I think we all know the answer.