The Orioles’ trip through the NL Central has been all over the place this season.
The Orioles finished their three-team homestand yesterday with a record of 5-3 with one rainout. Now they are out on the road for a trip to the Midwest where they play three against the St. Louis Cardinals starting tonight and four against the Chicago White Sox Thursday through Sunday. Both of these teams are bad so it would behoove the Orioles to mop the floor with them.
First up, the Cardinals. This team is 20-26 and in fourth place in the NL Central. Both their offense and their defense have been underwhelming this season. They have one very good starting pitcher in Sonny Gray and an otherwise unintimidating rotation. Their bullpen is not bad, however, especially closer Ryan Helsley. If the Orioles want to wrangle a mid-series trade and leave town with Helsley I don’t think we’d complain.
On offense, things could be going better for the Cards. It seems that Father Time may have caught up with Paul Goldschmidt, who is batting just .213/.296/.302. He has struck out 62 times, which is 15 more than the team leader of the Orioles (Gunnar Henderson) and third in the majors.
Also struggling offensively is star Nolan Arenado. Arenado hasn’t been himself since the second half of last year. Or maybe at age 33, this is who he is now. And the Cards’ offense was dealt a blow when the team’s best hitter, Willson Contreras, suffered a freak injury. Contreras was catching and hit with a swing by J.D. Martinez that broke his arm. He had surgery on May 8th and hopes to be back by the All-Star break.
The Cardinals are averaging 3.82 runs per game, which ranks 25th in the majors and well behind the Orioles’ 5.00. Their team OBP of .311 is just a tad under league average but their .360 slugging percentage is ranked 24th.
On the flip side, their 4.73 runs allowed per game is ranked 21st, again well behind the Orioles, whose 3.72 is eighth. Those offensive and defensive numbers are not a good combo.
The Cardinals are a historically good team and make the playoffs more often than not, especially since the turn of the century. But they were bad in 2023 with 91 losses and a last-place finish. It looks like they are headed for more of the same here in 2024.
Game One: Monday, May 20th, 7:45 PM EDT, MASN2
RHP Dean Kremer (8 GS, 46 IP, 3.72 ERA / 4.62 FIP) vs RHP Sonny Gray (7 GS, 41.1 IP, 3.08 ERA / 2.81 FIP)
It’s Dean! Kremer has made eight starts this year of varying success. In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, Kremer pitched 5.2 innings and struck out 10, but gave up three earned runs (six total). Aside from one bad start against the Brewers (4 IP, 3 ER), Kremer has been solid. He’s not blowing away the competition but he keeps his team in the game and that’s just fine.
As mentioned earlier, Gray is the best starter on the Cardinals and the only one currently doing above-average work. Generally a ground ball pitcher, so far this year his grounder numbers have been lower than his career average. He has made up for this by jacking up his strikeout numbers.
Gray is, however, coming off of two miserable starts against the Brewers and Angels. In 11 innings he gave up 11 runs and four home runs. Maybe this will be the Sonny Gray the Orioles see tonight.
Game Two: Tuesday, May 21st, 7:45 PM EDT, MASN2
RHP Kyle Bradish (3 GS, 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA / 2.41 FIP) vs RHP Lance Lynn (9 GS, 45.1 IP, 4.17 ERA / 4.42 FIP)
It remains to be seen how things are really going for Kyle Bradish. It’s been great to have him back but so far it’s been a mixed bag. The results are there but he has been inefficient with pitches and lacks a put-away pitch. He has yet to pitch beyond five innings despite pitch counts of 85+.
My first reaction to Lance Lynn is, “this guy is still pitching?” He is, at the age of 37. He got through the month of April looking solid but May has not been kind to him. In three starts totaling 14.2 innings pitched, Lynn gave up a total of 15 runs (12 earned). At this point in his career, this is the kind of guy the Orioles need to beat. But that just worries me.
Game Three: Wednesday, May 22nd, 1:15 PM EDT, MASN2 & MLBN (out-of-market)
LHP John Means (3 GS, 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA / 3.09 FIP) vs RHP Kyle Gibson (9 GS, 55 IP, 4.09 ERA / 4.60 FIP)
It’s John Means Day! Means is coming off of an excellent start against the Mariners and has had two solid starts out of three since returning to action on May 4th. He has yet to walk a batter this season.
Old friend alert! And I do mean old. Kyle Gibson is mentoring for another team these days after being a delightful clubhouse presence for the Orioles last season. Gibson is not having a terrible year. He’s averaging over six innings pitched per start but is striking out a touch fewer and walking a bit more than in years past. I fully expect that he will dominate the Orioles. That’s just how these things go.