BALTIMORE—The Orioles are closing in on a playoff spot. FanGraphs gives them a 100 percent chance to play in the postseason. BaseballReference.com assigns them 99.8 percent odds.
Major League Baseball projects that the earliest possible clinch date for the Orioles is next Wednesday September 11th. MLB doesn’t assign a magic number for playoff spots until it’s five or fewer.
After the Orioles play Tampa Bay on Saturday and Sunday, they’ll play three each at Boston and Detroit, two teams that are mathematically alive for a playoff spot but realistically have little chance.
FanGraphs assigns the Red Sox an 8.7 percent chance of playing in October while BaseballReference.com calculates their odds at 5.2 percent.
The Orioles play the Tigers in Detroit next weekend and close out the home regular season with them two weeks from now. FanGraphs gives Detroit a 4.7 percent postseason chance; BaseballReference.com has their odds at 6.5 percent.
The Seattle Mariners have slightly better chance to make the postseason with a 9.1 percent FanGraphs projection and 12.9 percent BaseballReference.com.
The Mariners don’t play the Orioles, and their higher odds are because they trail Houston by 4 ½ games in the American League West.
The Orioles have won four of their last five games, but manager Brandon Hyde is concerned about the offense.
“Offensively, there are still a lot of guys grinding,” Hyde said. “Hopefully, some guys can get it rolling here before the end of the year. I think they will. Our bullpen has been pitching really, really well as of late, so that’s a great sign. I love how those guys are throwing the baseball.”
Two relievers who’ve stood out recently are Yennier Cano, who rescued Dean Kremer from a bases-loaded, none-out jam in the seventh inning on Friday night, and left-hander Gregory Soto, who allowed four earned runs in two of his first three outings since he was acquired from Philadelphia on July 30th but has reeled off 10 straight scoreless outings since August 6th.
“It’s [20] games to go, so we’re in that sprint mode right now,“ Hyde said. “We’re watching to see what’s going on around the league. We’re tired, but our guys are doing a great job of grinding through it, and I expect us to finish the season strong.”