Three players slid into the Orioles’ picks in the 30s and they popped them, possibly with overslot bonuses in mind.
The Orioles had a flurry of picks in the 30s on Sunday night that are probably going to go a long way to determining whether or not their 2025 Draft is a success. When the dust settled on a run of picks starting with two in a row at 30 and 31 plus another at 37, the Orioles came away with these players:
- Caden Bodine, a catcher from Coastal Carolina University
- Wehiwa Aloy, a shortstop from the University of Arkansas
- Slater de Brun, a high school outfielder from Oregon
This is a stronger set of players than anybody could have hoped that the Orioles would be able to get going into this Draft. These guys all might have easily been drafted before they could choose twice at 30/31 or down at 37, and they all made it to the O’s picks. They didn’t mess around when players with value fell. They grabbed them because they’ve got the signing bonus pool available to make it work.
Aloy, a Hawaiian-born player whose first name is pronounced “Ve-hee-vah,” is a player who, in mock drafts, wasn’t even lasting until the Orioles picked in the first round, let alone at #31, where they took him. This is the #11 player on the FanGraphs ranking of the class, #15 at ESPN, #16 at Baseball America, and #17 at MLB Pipeline. He’s a righty batter who’s fresh off a junior season at Arkansas where he batted .350/.434/.673 with 21 home runs in 65 games.
FG’s Eric Longenhagen on Aloy:
Aside from a concerning amount of chase, Aloy does at least a little bit of everything. He’s a plus athlete with an athletic build, plus arm, above-average range, and average hands. He struggles some with hot shots, but otherwise looks like a pretty clean shortstop fit. Aloy also has plus bat speed and power to all fields … he’s a threat to go deep from pole to pole, which he’s demonstrated with wood bats. It takes big effort and it comes at a cost: strikeouts.
Compared to the Orioles’ first round pick, Ike Irish, the strikeout rate is higher: 20.6%. It’s also a lot lower than the rate of last year’s Orioles first round pick, Vance Honeycutt, as a college junior. Honeycutt struck out 27% of the time in his third college season. Nobody’s guaranteed to make it, but there’s some real positives going on there from a player with demonstrated performance against tough competition. I’m pumped that they got Aloy.
Bodine’s Coastal Carolina is not as well-known of a program as the SEC blue bloods, but in terms of this year’s college play, this was one of the best teams: The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (it’s a rooster) were the team that made it to the championship and lost to the LSU Tigers. Again, value compared to where the Orioles got him: FG rated him 18th, and ESPN had him 23rd. Others had him right around this spot in the draft.
MLB Pipeline, which had Bodine ranked 32nd, had this on the player:
A switch-hitter who’s equally proficient from both sides of the plate, Bodine has some of the best contact skills in the Draft. He has tremendous feel for the barrel and doesn’t try to do too much, focusing on controlling the strike zone and drilling line drives from gap to gap.
Again thinking about the strikeout rate, and keeping in mind that the Sun Belt Conference probably isn’t SEC quality, Bodine struck out just 24 times in 313 plate appearances this season. There are questions about whether he’ll be generating much in the way of power as a pro, as Bodine hit only five homers this season. If he’s able to be productive with strong contact skills, there’s value to be found there. Defensively, the draft analysts all seem to agree that he has work to do in blocking errant pitches but has done well with other aspects of catcher defense to date.
de Brun, the high school player drafted 37th, is a Vanderbilt commit who’s probably not going to end up playing for the Commodores after being taken by the Orioles here. He’s a familiar archetype for Elias in that he’s a lefty-batting outfielder, though Elias has not taken any high school outfielder so high in the Draft in his tenure to date. He was regarded in the late first-to-early second round talent range and ultimately that’s where the Orioles popped him.
From Baseball America, who had de Brun as their #30 prospect in the class:
de Brun is the top prep outfielder. … De Brun pairs a good understanding of the strike zone with above-average contact ability thanks to a short-levered swing that is direct to the ball. … there’s no reason why he couldn’t become an above-average pure hitter who gets to 10-15 home runs per season and surprises people with the impact of his best-struck balls. … He’s consistently a 70-grade runner who gets out of the box quickly and should be a basestealing threat. He has great range and solid instincts in center field and, unlike many undersized speedsters (5’10”), also has an above-average arm.
It does seem like the Orioles have perhaps adjusted their thinking on always drafting contact-challenged players, with three of their top four picks now for 2025 being players who are said to be good at contact, two of whom have some questions about power. We’re going to see how it works out as the years go by.
The slot values for these picks are:
- #30 overall – $3,113,300
- #31 overall – $3,042,800
- #37 overall – $2,631,400
Remember, teams can choose to allocate money across their entire Draft class as they like. I think it’s likely that there will be some overslot money relative to the 31st and 37th picks paid out to Aloy and de Brun.
The Orioles have ended up with the largest-ever bonus pool because of having these three picks. 30 and 31 came as compensation for losing qualifying offer free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. The Orioles acquired the 37th pick just within the last week when they traded Bryan Baker to the Rays.
The Orioles have another three picks to make on Day 1 of the Draft, with their second round pick, a competitive balance round B pick, and third round pick still to come.