After taking two of three from the AL West-trailing Athletics, the O’s return home to face the NL Central cellar dwellers.
As fans of an Orioles team that’s overloaded with good, young talent, we’d like to think the club is primed for multiple trips deep into the postseason over the next few years. But as the O’s next opponent has shown, nothing is guaranteed.
Eight years ago, the Chicago Cubs hoped they had a dynasty in the making. In 2016, they snapped their 108-year championship drought, and with a great core of young stars that included Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez, and Kyle Schwarber, they expected to make multiple trips to the World Series.
It didn’t turn out that way. The Cubs haven’t won a postseason game since 2017, and by 2021 every member of that core was gone from the roster. Since that teardown, the Cubs have been slowly trying to work their way back to respectability, and they entered 2024 with eyes on contention. Their boldest move was making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in baseball history, stealing him away from the division rival Brewers with a five-year, $40 million deal, hoping he could push a team that just missed the playoffs last year across the finish line.
And for the first month, things went well. After a win on April 26, the Cubs were 17-9, a season-best eight games over .500. The next day they were blown out at Fenway Park, 17-0, and they’ve pretty much been spiraling ever since, going 25-40 since then. They’ve won only four of their 21 series in that span, and just one against an above-.500 team.
Their starting rotation isn’t to blame; the Cubs currently have three starters with an ERA of 3.16 or lower, all of whom are scheduled to start against the Orioles in this series. But Chicago’s offense has failed to gel, especially in the power department, where their .369 team SLG is tied for fifth-worst in the majors, nearly 100 points lower than Baltimore’s league-leading .460. The Cubs have 87 home runs to the Orioles’ 146.
The Cubs re-signed former NL MVP Cody Bellinger, who won Comeback Player of the Year last season with 26 homers and an .881 OPS, but he’s failed to recapture his 2023 magic. Outfielders Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have been productive, as has new first baseman Michael Busch, but the Cubs have gotten little offensively out of the rest of their infield.
The Cubs have particularly struggled in the bullpen, with a 4.29 relief ERA that ranks fourth-worst in the majors. A revolving door of 20 pitchers have made relief appearances this year as the Cubs continue to look for anyone who can get some outs. Their current crew of lefties includes veteran Drew Smyly and the ironically named Luke Little, who is 6-foot-8. Right-hander Tyson Miller (1.83 ERA) has been their most effective reliever, but their closer, Héctor Neris, has a nearly 1.6 WHIP, a 6.4 BB/9 rate, and has blown one out of every four save attempts.
The bullpen recently lost veteran Colten Brewer to an embarrassing injury. He broke his hand punching a wall after a bad outing, landing him on the 60-day IL. I shouldn’t have to say this, but: don’t punch walls! The Cubs also just signed former Oriole Jorge López, whom the Mets released earlier this year after an infamous blow-up. If the O’s can keep the score close against the Cubs’ tough starters, they’ll have a good opportunity to put the game away late.
Game 1: Tuesday, 6:35 PM, MASN2
RHP Jameson Taillon (5-4, 2.99) vs. RHP Dean Kremer (4-4, 3.93)
Kremer will be making his first start at Camden Yards in nearly two months. He came off the injured list last week and delivered an excellent outing in Seattle, throwing five scoreless innings and striking out eight. He faced the Cubs last year at Wrigley Field and got the win, giving up one earned run in five innings and coughing up a dinger to Christopher Morel.
Even though only about a quarter of the Orioles’ games this year have been interleague matchups, Kremer has started a disproportionate number of those. This will be his fourth start in his last five against a National League team, and his sixth against the NL in 12 starts overall. He’s 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA in interleague games.
The Orioles are facing a former division foe here in Taillon, who spent two years with the Yankees before joining the Cubs in 2023. Taillon’s first season in Chicago was a bit disappointing, but he’s redeemed himself this year with a 2.99 ERA in 14 starts. He’s been the model of consistency, working six or more innings in each of his last five starts. Only once this season has he allowed more than three earned runs. The three veteran O’s outfielders — Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander — have seen Taillon quite a bit and are batting a combined .390 with four home runs against him.
Game 2: Wednesday, 6:35 PM, MASN2
LHP Shota Imanaga (7-2, 3.16) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (9-3, 2.32)
As The Baltimore Sun’s Jacob Calvin Meyer pointed out, the O’s could have started Burnes on regular rest in the series opener, which would have allowed him to also start the final game of the first half against the Yankees on Sunday. Instead, he’ll get more than a week of rest between this outing and his first one of the second half (unless, of course, he pitches in the All-Star Game in the interim).
Burnes is a familiar foe for the Cubs, who faced him often during his six years with the Brewers, where Counsell was his manager. In 16 career games (10 starts) against the Cubs, he’s 2-4 with a 3.26 ERA, although he hasn’t beaten them since 2021. Dansby Swanson (9-for-15, two home runs) and Ian Happ (7-for-24, one dinger) have hit him well, while Burnes has gotten the better of Cody Bellinger (2-for-15) and Patrick Wisdom (1-for-12), though each has homered off him also.
It’s a matchup of 2024 All-Stars as Orioles fans will get their first look at the Japanese sensation Imanaga. The 30-year-old lefty, in his first year in MLB after eight strong seasons in the NPB, has been the highlight of the Cubs’ otherwise dismal season, becoming a fan favorite thanks to his fantastic pitching as well as his delightful personality. Imanaga had an incredible 0.84 ERA through his first nine major league starts, and of the 32 earned runs he’s allowed this season, more than half of them came in just two atrocious outings. If you take out those two starts, his season ERA would be 1.61, but of course baseball doesn’t work that way. I look forward to watching this guy pitch, but hopefully not too well.
Game 3: Thursday, 6:35 PM, MASN2, MLB Network (out-of-market)
LHP Justin Steele (1-3, 2.95) vs. RHP Albert Suárez (5-2, 2.48)
Just when you were starting to doubt Albert Suárez after rough outings in the Bronx and Houston, he rattles off two straight quality starts, leading the O’s to one-run wins over both the Rangers and Athletics. It was enough for Suárez to keep his spot in the rotation when Kremer returned from the IL, with Cole Irvin getting bumped to the bullpen instead.
Throwing strikes will be the key for Suárez. He’s issued only one walk in his last two starts combined after walking eight in the two outings before that. The last time Suárez faced the Cubs was as a rookie in 2016, their World Series year. He’s one of only six players from that game who’s still active in the majors.
The Cubs will counter with Steele, their 28-year-old ace. The southpaw missed the month of April with a hamstring strain but has been firing on all cylinders since returning. He’s thrown six consecutive quality starts, capped by a 95-pitch complete game against the Angels last week that finally earned him his first win. Steele normally gets absolutely no run support or sees the bullpen blow his leads — or both — so the O’s hope a similar calamity will befall him this time around.