Last year’s NL rep in the World Series is muddling along just below .500 so far
Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks represented the National League in the World Series. This year, the Orioles hope to do the same for the American League. This weekend, the two teams meet in Baltimore trying to make very different statements.
For the Orioles, they come in after a roller-coaster two game split with the Nationals in DC. While the results against their southern neighbors left a little to be desired, the Orioles’ season up to this point has gone exactly to plan. The O’s offense leads the American League in runs per game, slugging percentage, OPS+ and HRs. Their pitching staff has been largely excellent and the return of John Means and Kyle Bradish puts their rotation among baseball’s most elite. If it wasn’t for the recent shakiness of closer Craig Kimbrel, the O’s would be enjoying a picture perfect start to 2024.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, surely had other things in mind when they broke camp than a 18-20 start. After sneaking into the playoffs last season as the final Wild Card team, the Snakes rode a hot streak all the way to the Fall Classic before losing a gentleman’s sweep to the Rangers. Armed with young stars like Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno and featuring a rotation headlined by Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, many expected the D-Backs to be the Dodgers’ biggest competition in the NL West.
Instead, Arizona has had an up-and-down start to 2024. After being unanimously voted the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year, star outfielder Corbin Carroll has taken a big step back to start this season. He heads into the matchup with the O’s hitting only .206 with a .570 OPS.
Arizona’s offense—which sits fourth in the NL at 5.00 runs/game—has instead been buoyed by 1B Christian Walker and 2B Ketel Marte. Walker, the former Oriole, leads Arizona in RBIs with 25 and is tied with Marte for the team lead with seven HRs. After taking home NLCS MVP honors last October, Marte has continued his hot play into this season. He’s currently seventh in the NL with 45 hits, third in doubles with 12 and is on pace to put up his best power numbers since 2019, when he finished fourth in MVP voting.
The Diamondbacks’ pitching is the main culprit for why they have a losing record so far this season. Gallen has remained his dominant self after he was a Cy Young finalist last season, and the Orioles will get a crack at him on Sunday. The rest of the rotation is a much bigger letdown. After signing an $80M contract in the offseason, Rodriguez has yet to make his D-Backs debut thanks to a strained shoulder on his pitching arm. Postseason stars Montgomery and Brandon Pfaadt both have ERAs north of 4.50 and Merrill Kelly is out until at least July with a shoulder strain of his own. Overall, the Diamondbacks rank 22nd in team ERA and 23rd in bullpen ERA this season.
This will be the first time since September of 2016 that Arizona travels to Baltimore. That year the Orioles swept a three-game series vs. the D-Backs, including winning the opener 3-2 on a walk off in extra innings. The Orioles completed a comeback that night thanks to solo HRs from Pedro Alvarez in the eighth and Matt Wieters in the ninth, before Mark Trumbo hit a walkoff shot over the LF fence in the 12th.
Game 1: Friday, May 10th, 7:05pm, Apple TV+
LHP Cole Irvin (3-1, 2.86 ERA) vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt (1-2, 4.61 ERA)
The bad news for Birdland is that the O’s are once again moved away from MASN and thrust into the primetime Friday night on Apple TV+. While it’s nice that the best team in the AL is getting more national attention, it’s undeniable that games just don’t feel the same without any of the normal MASN crew.
The good news for O’s fans is that Baltimore is sending the red hot Cole Irvin to the mound. The veteran lefty is in the greatest stretch of his career right now, having racked up 20 scoreless innings over his last three starts. Arizona did rough up Irvin last year when the O’s went out to the desert, to the tune of four runs and two HRs over 5.2 innings. The curveball-heavy Irvin will face his biggest challenge against the former-O Walker, as the D-Backs’ 1B is hitting .444 and slugging .889 against curves this season.
After shining as a rookie in the postseason, Pfaadt has struggled for consistency this season. In his last start against the Padres, he took the L after giving up 5 runs and 10 hits over six innings in a 13-1 loss. This will be the first appearance at Camden Yards for the 25-year-old right hander, who will hope to improve upon his normal results against AL competition. In seven career interleague games, Pfaadt has a 7.88 ERA and opponents are hitting .355 against him with 10 HRs.
Game 2: Saturday, May 11th, 4:05pm ET, MASN2
LHP John Means (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Ryne Nelson (2-2, 5.23 ERA)
The Camden Yards faithful will get their first look at John Means in 2024, as he makes his second start of the year. Means was nothing short of excellent in his season debut against Cincinnati, throwing seven scoreless innings while striking out eight and holding the Reds to three hits. Means, even more so than Irvin, has become a pitcher that likes to pitch backwards. Against the Reds he threw 31 changeups and it was easily his best pitch, as Cincinnati failed to register a single hit against Means’ cambio.
Means will have to be sharp against an Arizona lineup that has been at its best against left-handed starters. The D-Backs’ team batting average this season is .248, but it jumps all the way to .288 when facing southpaw starters. However, Means’s reliance on his changeup should once again work to his advantage on Saturday. Only Walker and 3B Eugenio Suarez have a hard-hit rate above 33% on changeups this season.
Like Pfaadt, Nelson is coming off a rough start against San Diego. The 26-year-old allowed four runs and eight hits over five innings against the Padres, though the D-Backs did manage to win 11-4. Also like Pfaadt, this will be Nelson’s first time facing the Orioles and his first time at Camden Yards. The righty leans heavily on his mid-90s four-seamer, which could set things up for a big Adley Rutschman game. The Orioles catcher is second in all the MLB in Run Value against fastballs this season.
Game 3: Sunday, May 12th, 1:35pm ET, MASN2
RHP Dean Kremer (3-2, 3.57 ERA) vs. RHP Zac Gallen (4-2, 2.84 ERA)
The Orioles will celebrate Mothers’ Day with the best matchup of the series, as the in-form Dean Kremer faces off against the ever-imposing Gallen. The 28-year-old righty is coming off his best start of the season in the series finale against the Reds. Kremer held Cincinnati scoreless over six one-hit innings while punching out six. A lot of his recent success has come from increased usage of his cutter. The cutter has been Kremer’s primary pitch in each of his last two starts, and opponents are only 2-15 against the cutter in those games.
The Orioles’ righty will hope that he can start putting up better results at home when he squares off against Arizona. Kremer has a sparkling 1.88 ERA on the road this season, but that number balloons to a 6.06 ERA in games at Camden Yards. His past results against NL teams have been mixed, but the Orioles usually find success when Kremer squares off against the senior circuit. In 12 interleague starts, Kremer has a 3.99 ERA and opponents are batting .244 against him. However, the O’s are 8-4 in those starts and will look to go to 9-4 when Kremer gets his first ever crack at the Diamondbacks.
Gallen is the only Diamondbacks starter that has experience against the O’s, but it’s not exactly a good experience. In his worst home start of the year last season, the O’s roughed up Gallen to the tune of five runs and eight hits over 5.1 innings. Ryan O’Hearn was the star of that game, as he went 2-3 off Gallen with an RBI single, a double and a run scored. Gallen has become more of a fastball-curveball-slider pitcher this year, as opposed to the fastball-curveball-changeup trio he featured last year. That bodes well for the lefties O’Hearn, Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser, who have all been pummeling breaking balls this year.