Mike Elias has some difficult decisions to make before Tuesday. Four prominent Orioles — left-handed relievers Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez, right-hander Seranthony Domínguez and first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn — have 2025 options, and the team’s executive vice president/general manager has to decide whether they’re smart investments.
Elias’ decisions will give some insight into how the 2025 Orioles will be constructed.
Coulombe’s $4 million option with a possible $925,000 if he appears in as many as 65 games in 2025 seems plausible. The 34-year-old has pitched better in his two seasons for the Orioles than at any other time in his career.
He’s 6-3 with a 2.56 ERA, has allowed fewer than seven hits per nine innings, less than one home run per nine innings and 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
In 2023, Coulombe allowed 22 percent of his 49 inherited runners to score, and in 2024, he didn’t allow any of his 13 inherited runners to score. He missed three months after surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow.
It would be a shock if Coulombe’s option wasn’t picked up, and he’d become a hot commodity on the free agent market.
Pérez and Domínguez are harder cases. In his third season with the Orioles, Pérez had a 4.53 ERA, by far the worst of his three years. In 31 appearances in the season’s first half, Pérez had a 3.49 ERA and in the second half, it was 5.68.
While he didn’t allow a home run this year, Pérez walked 4.7 batters per nine innings. His option is for $2.2 million, and while he has $750,000 in bonuses if he finishes up to 50 games, he finished only nine last season. The first $50,000 bonus is triggered if he finishes 20.
Pérez also can earn a $25,000 bonus for 55, 60, 65 or 70 innings pitched. Only in 2022 when he threw a career high 57 2/3 innings would he have qualified for any of those bonuses. If the Orioles decline Pérez’s option, they can also retain him through arbitration. MLBTradeRumors believes Pérez could get $2.2 million in arbitration.
Domínguez has an $8 million option that the Orioles inherited when they acquired him from Philadelphia on July 26th. They can buy him out for $500,000. He has an array of bonuses, too, but they’re for winning Reliever of the Year, World Series or League Championship MVP or Gold Glove. He also has a bonus for Silver Slugger though pitchers no longer hit.
If the Orioles retained Coulombe, Domínguez and Pérez as well as Gregory Soto, who’s eligible for arbitration, they’d be bringing back four pitchers who are out of minor league options. So are Keegan Akin and Jacob Webb. Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano do have options, but the team wouldn’t want to option them.
Domínguez’s case is sticky because they’d like another accomplished setup man, but his 3.92 ERA in 25 games with the Orioles wasn’t compelling. Six of the 10 runs he allowed came on home runs, but he did strike out 11.1 batters per nine innings.
With some interesting relievers on the free agent market, Elias may prefer to shake up a bullpen that had a 4.22 ERA.
O’Hearn’s case is the most interesting of all. His option for 2025 is $8 million.
Like Coulombe, O’Hearn has achieved the most success of his career with the Orioles. In five seasons with Kansas City, O’Hearn hit just .219.
In two seasons with the Orioles. O’Hearn, who’s now 31 has hit .275 with a .779 OPS, and this year settled for $3.5 million in arbitration with the $7.5 million option.
The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him as the 20th most attractive free agent, even though he may not become one.
Law said O’Hearn “might be a hidden gem in the class,” and if that’s the case, the Orioles may be doing him a favor by declining his option, allowing him to capitalize on free agency.
Even though the Orioles project to have at least five left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter among their 13 position players for next season, O’Hearn has been a valuable addition.
While his fielding at first base isn’t terrific; he has a -1.3 Defensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement), he’s become an excellent contact hitter. His strikeout percentage on a strikeout-happy team is 14 percent, about half what it was with Kansas City.
His 69 strikeouts were tied with Jackson Holliday for the eighth highest on the Orioles, and Holliday played in 60 games to O’Hearn’s 142.
The guess here is that the Orioles retain O’Hearn and Coulombe.
Note: Ryan Mountcastle was a finalist in the Gold Glove Award at first base and he lost out to Minnesota’s Carlos Santana. Colton Cowser was a finalist in left, but Cleveland’s Steven Kwan won it for the third straight year.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.