The Guardians had all but buried themselves in the postseason race before a recent hot streak.
It’s official: the Orioles will be sellers. Their next opponent, though, has some tough decisions about which direction they’ll be taking at the trade deadline.
It’s hard to know what to make of the Cleveland Guardians. Last year they were a great story, enjoying a 92-win season under rookie Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt. But this year they’ve been all over the map. The Guardians were doing OK up until June 25, sitting at two games above .500, and then suffered a brutal 10-game losing streak that seemed to knock them out of contention entirely.
Since then, though, Cleveland has been red hot. They’ve won eight of their last 10 games, including a sweep of the Astros and series wins over the White Sox and Athletics, the two worst teams in the American League. Now they’ll get to face the third-worst team, the Orioles, with a chance to keep the good times rolling.
The Guardians are hopelessly out of the AL Central race, 11 games behind the Tigers, but remain on the periphery of wild card contention. They enter play tonight at 48-50, 4.5 games back of the third wild card spot. They would have to pass four other teams to get there, so their chances aren’t great, but is it close enough that the Guardians might be tempted to make some acquisitions at the trade deadline?
Their offense could certainly use some help. The Guardians’ .223 team batting average is tied with the White Sox for the worst in the majors, and their .295 OBP is better only than the Rockies. If Cleveland decides to sell, their best trade chips are in their bullpen, led by three-time All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase and set-up man Cade Smith, both of whom are attracting plenty of interest.
Game 1: Monday, 6:40 PM, MASN 2
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (7-5, 4.44) vs. RHP Tanner Bibee (5-9, 4.29)
Remember when Sugano was the most reliable member of the Orioles’ rotation? That was nice. Even during his successful first two months, though, his peripherals were scary — most notably, his low strikeout rate. That seems to have caught up with the 35-year-old as he’s posted a 7.94 ERA and 6.34 FIP in his last six starts. Sugano managed to eke out a bare-minimum quality start against the Mets in his last outing — six innings, three runs — after five straight starts of five innings or less. He faced the Guardians on April 17 and pitched seven strong frames of two-run ball, but that seems like a different version of Sugano than the one we’re seeing now.
Bibee, the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Gunnar Henderson in 2023, is having a mediocre season, with a 0.8 WAR in 19 starts. July has been especially a slog for him, as he’s failed to last five innings in two of his three starts. Bibee’s strikeout rate is down significantly this year (7.8) compared to last season (9.7) and he’s giving up more hits, homers, and walks. Not a great combination. Bibee pitched against Sugano in that April 17 game at Camden Yards and the Orioles torched him for six runs in 5.2 innings, including a homer by his Rookie of the Year nemesis, Henderson.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:40 PM, MASN 2
RHP Brandon Young (0-4, 7.52) vs. LHP Joey Cantillo (1-0, 4.17)
It’s been a rough rookie campaign for Young, who has made six starts, of which only one has been decent. He’s been chased in the fifth inning or earlier in all the others. Young has allowed 47 baserunners in 26.1 innings. That’s not gonna get it done. Right now the Orioles are using him because they simply have no other options, but the potential returns of Zach Eflin and Cade Povich could send Young back to the minors (barring any trades of other starters).
The Hawaii native Cantillo is a 25-year-old lefty who Cleveland acquired in a nine-player trade with the Padres in 2020. His first 21 outings this season came in relief, but the Guardians moved him to the rotation this month and have been gradually stretching him out, with mixed results. No O’s hitter has more than three career PAs against him.
Game 3: Wednesday, 6:40 PM, MASN 2
TBD vs. RHP Slade Cecconi (5-4, 3.84)
First off: “Slade Cecconi” is a cool name. The Orioles need some guys with names that cool. They’d also benefit from some pitchers who performed like Cecconi, a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation hurler. He strikes out an acceptable number, gives up an acceptable amount of hits and walks, and generally keeps his team in the game. Cecconi has made one career start against the Orioles, back in 2023 when he was a Diamondback, and was tagged for six runs in 3.1 innings.
The O’s haven’t announced a starter for either of their final two games. If they stay on turn, it would be Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer, unless the Orioles activate Eflin or Povich from the IL.
Game 4: Thursday, 1:10 PM, MASN, MLB Network (out of market)
TBD vs. LHP Logan Allen
This left-handed Guardians starting pitcher named Logan Allen should not be confused with the other left-handed Guardians starting pitcher named Logan Allen who played with the club from 2019-2022 (and later made three appearances for the Orioles). This Logan Allen is a 26-year-old who debuted in 2023 (and, to add to this confusion, was drafted by the Orioles in 2017, but didn’t sign). He’s another Cleveland hurler, like Bibee and Cecconi, who is hovering around a league-average performance this season, with a 102 ERA+. Allen did pitch well against the Orioles earlier this season, throwing 5.2 scoreless innings in a victory in Baltimore.