Can the Orioles get back on track against the Guardians?
For a while now, the Orioles have been in second place in the AL East while holding the second-best record in the AL. Due to their sweep at the hands of the Astros and a five-game winning streak from the Cleveland Guardians, that is no longer the case. The Guardians and Orioles, who kick off a three-game series tonight, both have 49 wins on the season. The Guardians have two fewer losses, having played just 75 games to the Orioles’ 77.
The Guardians have been first in the AL Central daily since April 14. The Central is considered a weak division but the Guardians have been a legitimately good team. They allow an average of 3.65 runs per game, which is second in the AL. And they score 5.04 runs per game, also second. So far this season the Guardians are 10-6 vs the AL East, which includes a weekend sweep of the Blue Jays.
The offensive star of the Guardians this year is outfielder Steven Kwan. He has played in only 48 games after missing three weeks in May with a hamstring strain, but he picked up right where he left off when he returned. Even with the missed time, he leads the team in fWAR. He’s batting .390 on the season but doesn’t have a ton of power.
Veteran José Ramírez just keeps on chugging, 12 years into his major-league career. He’s seen a power surge this year, already at 19 this season after hitting 24 last season. The third baseman’s slugging percentage of .526 is better than every Oriole not named Gunnar Henderson.
The Orioles are sending out two lefties against the Guardians, who so far this year have hit lefties better than righties, both overall and against lefty starters. Against lefty starters, the Guardians have an OPS+ of 118 while they are basically league average against righties (101). I normally wouldn’t think much about that as it’s only been 19 games but given the pitching troubles for the Orioles of late, I’ll just go ahead and worry.
Speaking of starting pitching worries, the Guardians have them. Their combined starter ERA is 4.26, ranked ninth in the AL. Their ace, Shane Bieber, made just two starts this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery (join the club, Shane). Two of the three pitchers going this series have been pretty bad. The Orioles might compete with the Guardians in the race to make a starting pitcher trade, that’s for sure.
The Guardians bullpen has been the best in baseball, however. So it would behoove the Orioles to go after the starters early and often.
This series kicks off a seven-game homestand with the Guardians and Rangers.
Game 1 – Monday, 6:35 ET
- BAL starter: LHP Cade Povich (3 GS, 16 IP, 3.94 ERA / 4.71 FIP)
- CLE starter: RHP Tanner Bibee (15 GS, 81.1 IP, 3.65 ERA / 3.23 FIP)
Tanner Bibee has been one of the brighter spots of the Guardians’ rotation. He strikes out a lot (10.95 per nine innings) and walks just a few (2.32 per 9). He averages about 5.5 innings per start. In his last start against the Mariners, Bibee pitched six shutout innings with 12 strikeouts. It was a follow up to an 11-strikeout performance vs the Reds, though in that he gave up four runs.
Things have been up and down for Cade Povich. In his first and third starts, he walked a total of nine batters. If he can keep those under control he will probably find success, as he did in his no-walk effort for the Braves.
Game 2 – Tuesday, 6:35 ET
- BAL starter: LHP Cole Irvin (14 G / 12 GS, 73 IP, 3.45 ERA / 3.78 FIP)
- CLE starter: LHP Logan Allen (15 GS, 75.2 IP, 5.23 ERA / 5.51 FIP)
Logan Allen has been worth -0.3 fWAR this year. He has managed an 8-3 record because his team averages nearly six runs per game in his starts. His strikeout numbers are pedestrian and he walks 3.57 batters per nine innings. His 15 home runs allowed are tied for third among pitchers in the AL, tied with his teammate Triston McKenzie.
Cole Irvin’s magic has been running low of late. His June ERA is 4.84 with an inflated .342 BABIP. His last start vs the Yankees was a five-run, 4.2 inning effort. A good start from him this time would make me feel a lot better.
Game 3 – Wednesday, 6:35 ET
- BAL starter: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (13 GS, 75.1 IP, 3.82 ERA / 3.38 FIP)
- CLE starter: RHP Carlos Carrasco (13 GS, 65 IP, 5.40 ERA / 4.78 FIP)
37-year-old Carlos Carrasco is still playing baseball and he is back with his original team after a three-year stint with the Mets. Things are not going well for him. He’s given up at least five runs in a third of his starts this season. He’s still getting a lot of ground balls with a rate of 48% but even so he’s given up 10 homers this season in 13 starts.
Grayson Rodriguez will be looking to erase his terrible start against the Astros from our collective memories. Before that disaster he was on a pretty good run, putting up a 2.34 ERA over his previous seven starts. Let’s get back to that, Grayson.