Baltimore Sun Orioles reporter Jacob Calvin Meyer will answer fan questions every Friday during baseball season. Here are JCM’s thoughts on several questions from readers:
(Editor’s note: Questions have been edited for length and clarity. Email jameyer@baltsun.com with questions for next Friday’s mailbag.)
How much credit does Tony Mansolino deserve for the Orioles’ recent run? — Brian M.
As much as any other manager — no more, no less.
A manager’s No. 1 job is to win games. The wins and losses go on his Baseball-Reference page, not anybody else’s. He shouldn’t be shielded from criticism because of the unfair circumstances he was put in, nor should he receive effusive praise for a talented team regressing to the mean.
Mansolino has approached the role of interim manager in an honest and vulnerable way. The clubhouse did not crumble after the earthquake that was firing Brandon Hyde. While Mansolino has made some in-game mistakes, he’s also pushed the right buttons on several occasions in victories.
At the same time, the Orioles have mostly been winning games recently because of their starting rotation, not because of all-around excellent play or improvements offensively or defensively. Let’s use Sunday’s win over the White Sox, which featured four defensive miscues and three base running blunders, as an example. If reliever Bryan Baker had pitched in Sunday’s ninth inning the way Félix Bautista did against the Nationals in the final game of Hyde’s tenure, the Orioles would have lost to the White Sox and it would have been just as embarrassing as the loss to Washington.
Here are the Orioles’ numbers under Hyde versus under Mansolino.
Under Hyde:
- 15-28 record
- 3.7 runs scored per game, .230 batting average, .682 OPS
- 5.4 runs allowed per game, 5.31 ERA
Under Mansolino:
- 10-8 record
- 4.1 runs scored per game, .249 batting average, .695 OPS
- 4.7 runs allowed per game, 4.63 ERA
Not that different, right? OK, let’s narrow it to when the Orioles started to get back on track, which was the doubleheader in Boston through Thursday’s win, their sixth straight.
Since May 24:
- 9-3 record
- 3.8 runs scored per game, .237 batting average, .670 OPS
- 2.8 runs allowed per game, 2.58 ERA
In other words, as they’d say about the economy in politics: It’s the pitching, stupid.
Does Mansolino make it through the season as interim manager? — @el_travs on X
The team has said the answer to this is yes. But that can change at any moment.
If owner David Rubenstein and general manager Mike Elias are convinced their next manager is someone available, perhaps it would be prudent to hire him now. Otherwise, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to limit your candidate pool for a hire as important as this.
With the team back on track, it should be assumed that Mansolino will remain in his role until the season ends.
Do you think the Orioles extend Gunnar Henderson before the trade deadline? — @bmorebirdsball on X
No.
Is the offense better because Mansolino’s lineups are more consistent and he’s platooning less often? — Eric D.
Well, the aforementioned numbers suggest the Orioles’ offense hasn’t actually been better under Mansolino. However, the eye test tells a slightly different story since the lineup doesn’t feel as lifeless when trailing and the performance in clutch situations is slightly better.
The highest-profile example of this (well, sort of) is Jackson Holliday becoming the Orioles’ everyday leadoff hitter. Last weekend, Mansolino made a point after a win to say that he told Holliday shortly after taking over that the 21-year-old would be an everyday player — no matter if a lefty is starting or not — moving forward.
That’s a great thing for an interim manager to say to a young player amid the chaos, and verbalizing that could certainly have eased Holliday or given him more confidence. One of Mansolino’s strengths as a coach, his players say, is his communication, and this might be a prime example.
But what was forgotten by many when Mansolino made that comment was that Holliday was already an everyday player before Mansolino took over. Before Hyde was fired, Holliday had started 11 straight games, including two versus left-handers as well as both ends of a doubleheader, and was moved to the leadoff spot.
After that same win, pitcher Dean Kremer hypothesized that Orioles hitters have benefited from less platooning and having “consistently the same guys in the lineup.” On an individual basis, that could certainly be true. Ryan O’Hearn is surely happy that he’s been an everyday player recently. However, platooning less often appears to be a result of the circumstances, rather than a repudiation of the way this team was operated under Hyde or a changing of the organization’s philosophy.
It’s easier to play left-handed hitters like Holliday, O’Hearn and Heston Kjerstad every day when right-handed hitters like Jordan Westburg, Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramón Laureano are on the injured list. What also makes it easier to play lefties every day is when you never face a left-handed starting pitcher. The Orioles are on pace to be a historically bad team against southpaws. Entering Thursday, their .549 OPS versus lefties was by far the worst in MLB.
In 18 games since Mansolino took over, the Orioles have miraculously yet to face a left-handed starting pitcher (not including openers). Before his promotion May 17, the Orioles faced 13 lefties in 43 games (30% of the time), including some of the sport’s best in Boston’s Garrett Crochet, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, Kansas City’s Kris Bubic (twice), Washington’s MacKenzie Gore (twice), Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott and the New York Yankees’ Carlos Rodon. Before May 17, Orioles hitters averaged 10.8 plate appearances per game against southpaws. Since, that number is down to a minuscule 4.9.
It’s easier to put out consistent lineups and not platoon when you never face lefties.
Is it time to start believing in the Orioles again? — Jim L.
Most questions in these mailbags aren’t about what’s right or what’s wrong. There’s too much gray in the game of baseball for black and white answers.
But this one is pretty straightforward: Why not?
Sure, they will almost certainly let you down. But for most Baltimore fans, especially older ones, I think y’all are used to it.
This mailbag is filled with statistics that might suggest this six-game winning streak is just natural regression and not a sign of a historic comeback. That’s because this team making the playoffs — which would require them to go at least 60-41 (and probably better) the rest of the way — is unlikely.
But it’s not impossible.
It is more likely that the Orioles are one of the majors’ best teams in August and September than it was for them to be one of its worst clubs in April and May. If the latter can happen, so can the former.
This is, after all, just a silly game for kids. What point is there other than to get your hopes up?
Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.