The last time these teams played, in late May, the Orioles took two of three. As then, the Mariners have one of the game’s best rotations and one of its worst offenses.
The Orioles’ grueling month of June has come to an end. On a whole, it was a success, as the team put up a 17-12 record against some of baseball’s best over a span where they had just two days off and lost two crucial arms to elbow injuries in Kyle Bradish and Danny Coulombe, on top of Tyler Wells and John Means, who were ruled out at the end of May.
The Orioles know they’ll eventually need pitching help, but with a glut of prospects in the farm system and the All-Star Break just two weeks away, reinforcements could arrive soon. In the meantime, they have to make it through four more series, including two on the West Coast. First up: the Seattle Mariners.
These two teams last met on May 17-19, when Baltimore took two games of three at home, with John Means and Corbin Burnes prevailing over tough competition in Bryce Miller and George Kirby, respectively. In the third game, Grayson Rodriguez threw a scoreless six innings against Mariners ace Luis Castillo, but the bullpen allowed the Mariners to come back in an eventual 4-3 loss.
It’s really not bad when your starters allow a combined three runs in three games, even if Seattle’s offense isn’t the hottest: the Mariners currently rank last in the AL in hits and third-to-last in runs scored. For now, though, they’re holding onto a 3.5 game lead in the AL West after a 15-14 month of May and a 15-12 June. Their pitching, as usual, has been good. Over the last month, Seattle’s staff ranks in the Top 7 in MLB in ERA, BABIP, hits and runs allowed.
For now, Baltimore is being cagey about its starters, having (as of Tuesday morning) not named who’ll follow Rodriguez to the mound on Wednesday and Thursday. If they take their regular turns, it’d be Corbin Burnes and Albert Suárez, who last pitched on June 26 and June 28, respectively. But there’s been talk that Dean Kremer, who’s made three starts for Triple-A Norfolk, may be ready to rejoin the rotation, ergo the “TBD” on the starter ID’s.
Game 1: Tuesday, July 2nd, 9:40pm ET, MASN 2
RHP Grayson Rodriguez (9-3, 3.72 ERA, 89 SO) v. RHP George Kirby (7-5, 3.35 ERA, 96 SO)
This should be a fun matchup. Grayson Rodriguez, currently tied with ace Corbin Burnes for the team lead in wins with nine, has had a strong second season. Rodriguez bounced back nicely last week after tossing a stinker in Houston with a strong seven innings against the Cleveland Guardians, who’ve had one of the AL’s best offenses of late. As I mentioned, the Mariners do not have one of the AL’s best offenses. Hopefully Rodriguez can take advantage and mow some guys down.
Rodriguez’s last time facing Seattle, he kept top Mariners hitters Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh, Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore hitless, while Julio Rodríguez went 1-for-3.
Opposing Rodriguez is George Kirby, who’s put up a nearly identical 3.30-ish ERA in each of his three seasons. He’s a whiz at limiting walks, and his 0.8 BB/9 rate this year is one of the best in the Major Leagues.
His last time out against Baltimore was one of his worst starts of the year, however: Kirby surrendered five runs on nine hits, including home runs by Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn. It’s partly a splits thing: lefties OPS .709 against him versus a .565 OPS for righties. Also, the Orioles are good at hitting home runs.
Game 2: Wednesday, July 03, 10:10pm ET, MASN 2
TBD – maybe Dean Kremer (3-3, 3.72 ERA, 47 SO in 46 IP) or Corbin Burnes (9-3, 2.28 ERA, 99 SO) vs. RHP Logan Gilbert (5-4, 2.72 ERA, 102 SO)
Any night owls feisty enough to stay awake for a 10:10 pm first pitch, well, props. The Orioles still haven’t identified their starter, so here is a non-expert guess: Dean Kremer can be activated off the IL to slot back into the rotation so Burnes can pitch on a full five day’s rest. Evidence in favor: Corbin Burnes just spent three days on the paternity list from June 28-July 1, so perhaps he’s not the freshest (congratulations, by the way, Corbin!), while Dean Kremer’s last rehab start for Triple-A Norfolk came on June 27.
Let’s assume it’s Kremer. The right hander landed on the IL on May 24 with a right triceps strain, although unlike Means’ and Wells’ injuries, this injury was rehabbable. The right-hander wasn’t the most effective in his Triple-A rehab stint, posting an 11.42 ERA in 8.2 innings, though he did strike out nine. Those numbers don’t usually mean a lot, anyway. Prior to his injury, he’d been effective as a fourth starter, with a 1.12 WHIP and 49 strikeouts in 50 innings.
This will be the first time the Orioles are facing Logan Gilbert this season, and they’re doing so right as he’s surging, with two eight-inning shutouts in his last three starts, against Miami and Texas. His 0.88 season WHIP is the best of any starter, period. The last time Gilbert saw the Orioles was on June 23, 2023, when he held the Birds to one run, on an Anthony Santander home run.
Game 3: Thursday, July 4th, 4:10pm ET, MASN 2
TBD – maybe Burnes or Albert Suárez (4-2, 2.43 ERA, 45 SO in 59.1 IP) v. Bryce Miller (6-7, 3.88 ERA, 91 SO)
Third and finally, an afternoon game so you can tune in while you grill hot dogs and drink brewskies. Or stay indoors to avoid the heat: how you choose to celebrate July 4th is entirely up to you.
This is another TBD starter, and it seems possible that it’ll fall to Corbin Burnes pitching on five days’ rest. Burnes keeps on being the Terminator of this rotation. He’s had exactly one “meh” start in 17 tries, and it wasn’t even that bad: four runs allowed to a resurgent Houston over six innings. Burnes has never failed to go five innings as an Oriole and he’s currently rocking the second-lowest ERA of any AL starter, at 2.28, to go with a 1.03 WHIP. It’s really a luxury to have this man on our team.
On the other hand, if the start goes to Albert Suárez, great. The 34-year-old Venezuelan has been a revelation as a spot starter, and last week he delivered perhaps his best performance of the season, allowing just three hits and zero runs over six innings in a tight 2-1 win against the Rangers. Best of all, his fastball had lots of movement and his command was on point, with not a single walk.
Countering one of these likely two will be Bryce Miller. The Orioles faced Miller on May 17, and handed the second-year right hander a loss, hitting him up for five runs (four earned) over 5.1 innings. Over his last seven games, Miller has been solid except for a pair of clunkers (seven runs allowed to Kansas City and six to Miami). Of the current Orioles, lots of lefties seem to like hitting Miller. That includes Colton Cowser (a 1.667 OPS against), Gunnar Henderson (1.208) and Anthony Santander (1.357).