The Mets are fighting to get back to first in the NL East, while the Orioles are fighting to keep their season afloat.
So far, the only rules in this Orioles season seem to be, don’t expect any trend to continue, and don’t get your hopes up too high. The Orioles have played better-than-.500 ball since late May, but often the streaks of brilliance have been followed by hopeless incompetence. Strictly speaking, that’s not very scientific thinking, so perhaps the tea leaves will be wrong this time, and a weekend sweep of the Atlanta Braves won’t necessarily be followed by a faceplant against the New York Mets.
Then again, the Mets will be a tougher opponent than Atlanta. The last time these two teams played, back in late August ’24, both were fighting for a playoff spot. Both made it, although the O’s run was short, and the Mets got as far as the NLCS before being bounced by the eventual WS-winning Los Angeles Dodgers. In that series against Baltimore, the Mets took two of three games, both on walkoff home runs off Seranthony Domínguez. Sheesh.
Anyway, don’t call the Mets cute underdogs anymore, as if we were still living in the Casey Stengel era. New York is one game back in the NL East, having surrendered the pole position to Philly after a sub-.500 June. But they boast MLB’s highest payroll, at $323,099,999 (the O’s, for reference, are middle-of-the-pack, at $162,314, 278). Partly accounting for this is Juan Soto, who signed a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets this offseason (and amazingly just got snubbed from the NL All-Star team, despite hitting .264 with 21 home runs, 51 RBIs, and a .904 OPS).
The Mets also added starting pitchers Clay Holmes, Griffin Canning, and were jazzed to get back Kodai Senga after he pitched just 5.1 innings in 2024. But Senga (15-day IL – hamstring), Canning and fellow starters Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn and Sean Manaea are out with injuries. Frankie Montas was just activated from the IL on June 24. Tell us about it.
After Soto (at 3.7 WAR, their most valuable player), other standout contributors are shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s hitting .261 with 17 home runs, and 1B Pete Alonso, who’s crushing it at the plate with a .287 average, .923 OPS, 20 home runs and a league-leading 25 doubles. Brandon Nimmo is also bringing the power from left field, with 18 home runs.
The O’s have nearly even home/away splits, at .463/.438, so I think the immediate goal for Brandon Young, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton should be: keep the ball in the yard.
Game 1: Tuesday, July 8, 6:35pm ET, MASN
RHP Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.99 ERA, 76 SO) vs. RHP Brandon Young (0-3, 7.02 ERA, 15 SO)
The Orioles saw a lot of Holmes when he was a Yankee. The eight-year veteran and two-time All-Star signed a two-year, $26 million contract in the offseason with the Mets, and so far, it’s paying off. Holmes isn’t striking out a ton of hitters, with 76 in 93.1 innings, but he’s been a groundball machine, at 53.9%, though a 4.37 FIP suggests he’s been reliant on good defense behind him. The righty has a six-pitch mix: sinker-sweeper-change-slider-cutter-four-seam, in descending order. His sweeper is kind of new, and it’s been his best pitch.
Now, Brandon Young is still very young in his career, but you can’t feel super confident in the young righty after the first three tries. In 16.2 innings this year, the rookie has allowed 13 runs, 13 hits and eleven walks. Unfairly, of Young’s grand total of three career starts, two came versus Jacob deGrom. That includes a 10-2 defeat last time out in which he allowed three runs in four innings.
Game 2: Wednesday, July 9, 7:05pm ET, MASN
Probable pitchers: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (6-5, 4.44 ERA, 57 SO) vs. LHP David Robertson (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 87 SO)
Last time the Orioles faced the Mets’ David Peterson, on August 19, 2024, the 6’6” lefty completed seven innings and held them to three runs on a groundout, a balk, and a home run by Ramón Urías. Selected one pick ahead of DL Hall in the 2017 draft, the former first-rounder has been very good this year, holding opponents to a .242 average and mostly avoiding hard hits. I was wrong when I said Clay Holmes was a groundball machine; the sinker-heavy Peterson is the real machine, with a 57% rate, 94th percentile of all pitchers. The big lefty also owns the only complete game shutout this season.
Just as Orioles starters Trevor Rogers and Charlie Morton are starting to figure it out, right hander Tomoyuki Sugano has gotten worse each month, from a 3.00 ERA in six starts in April to a 6.20 mark in June. Velocity and spin are slightly down, and his command has taken a downturn, too. Fatigue could be a problem. Hope the 35-year-old rookie is well-rested tonight.
Game 3: Thursday, July 10, 1:05pm ET, MASN
RHP Charlie Morton (5-7, 5.47 ERA, 84 SO) vs. TBD, probably RHP Justin Hagenman (0-0, 4.35 ERA, 10 SO)
The Mets haven’t announced their starter for Wednesday’s game, but it could be right handed rookie Justin Hagenman, forced into the Mets rotation due to starter injuries. So far in one try it wasn’t good: On July 4, he threw 4.1 innings against the Yankees and gave up four runs. The rookie allowed one run in six innings of long relief before that.
Is it wrong that I really look forward to Charlie Morton starts now? The guy really knows how to pitch, triple underline under the word “pitch.” Over his last seven games, the 41-year-old veteran is 5-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 44 strikeouts. With the summer heat, his curveball has emerged as a weapon, generating a 44% swing-and-miss rate in July. The only bad thing to say is, why didn’t Morton find this version of himself in April?