Norfolk’s offense vanished except for Coby Mayo, Matthew Etzel was hot for Aberdeen, and more.
With the Orioles rattling off 101 wins a season ago and hoping to continue something close to that kind of success this season, the big league club is understandably going to be the thing in the organization that gets the most attention. Gone for now are the days of looking at minor league box scores and wondering whether these prospects are the ones who will be enough to help end the dark times. They ended.
Here on Camden Chat, in addition to our daily minor league coverage, we’ll be stepping back every Tuesday morning to look at the bigger picture across a whole week of results and how the team’s prospects – both the very top ones everyone knows and the less-heralded ones – are faring so far.
At least for the early going, things could be going better for the affiliates, as every one of the four is below .500 after the first full week of play is in the books.
Triple-A Norfolk Tides
- Past week: 0-6 vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Yankees)
- Coming week: at Jacksonville (8-7, Marlins)
- Season record: 7-8, seventh place (3.5 games back) of ten teams in International League East
Remember a week ago when we were all jazzed about the loaded Norfolk lineup and asking questions like how would this team do against some bad MLB teams? All of that crashed down to earth pretty hard in the days since as Jackson Holliday went up to Baltimore and most of the rest of the interesting Tides players had some big slumps.
One guy who didn’t slump was Coby Mayo, who hit three home runs across six games, part of an 8-24 week that also saw him steal a pair of bases. Pretty good! Mayo is playing almost all of his games at third base so far. Every other hitter of note had a rough time of it against the RailRiders: Heston Kjerstad hit just 4-22, Kyle Stowers went 2-18 while striking out eight times, and Connor Norby batted 3-21 with zero extra-base hits. The three strugglers are still OPSing over .900 for the season but that was a tough crash nearly all at once.
If you’re anxiously eyeing the Orioles rotation and wondering whether a prospect might be of any assistance, Cade Povich is the guy who’s keeping those hopes alive. Povich had one start this week, allowing just one hit – a solo homer – over a 5.1 inning start. This was on just 84 pitches, so he could have gone farther once the team thinks he’s stretched out. With ten strikeouts, Povich has now struck out 24 guys in 16.1 innings this season.
Not as good: Justin Armbruester (7 ER in 9 IP over two starts) and Chayce McDermott (3 ER in 4.1 IP). These guys both had some serious command problems, as Armbruester walked seven batters across his two games and McDermott handed out five free passes in one game. That’s 15 walks in 12 innings for McDermott so far.
Erstwhile Orioles
- John Means – Rehab continued with a three-inning start, two runs allowed on two hits
- Bryan Baker – Four runs allowed in two innings; 9 ER in 4.1 IP so far
- Nick Vespi – 2.2 scoreless innings in one outing, now with a 1.35 ERA over six games
Double-A Bowie Baysox
- Past week: 2-4 at Hartford (Rockies)
- Coming week: vs. Altoona (4-4, Pirates)
- Season record: 4-5, fourth place (1.5 games back) of six teams in Eastern League Southwest
It’s tough for any other affiliate to top the Orioles having five of their top ten prospects (per MLB Pipeline) at Norfolk, but Double-A isn’t too bad either with six of the top 16. At the top of that group is Samuel Basallo, the catching prospect who won’t be able to catch until at least next month as he recovers from a stress fracture in his elbow. This was not a good week for the 19-year-old as he hit just 5-21, drawing zero walks while striking out eight times.
Bowie’s big standout on offense over these games was TT Bowens, who as a 25-year-old first baseman in Bowie isn’t much of a prospect, but good job for the .389/.450/.722 week anyway. Outfield prospects Jud Fabian and Dylan Beavers were fine over the series, with Fabian batting 5-18 and drawing three walks, while Beavers hit 6-20 with a pair of doubles.
Shoutout also to Frederick Bencosme, a 21-year-old infielder whose pure hitting ability may keep him as a prospect worth keeping an eye on even if he never has much power. Bencosme did have a homer and a double in his 6-18 week and through eight games has more walks (4) than strikeouts (3).
The Baysox rotation includes Trace Bright (#16 prospect) and Alex Pham (#24), each of whom will be looking to pitch himself up to the Povich or McDermott level this season. Not much to say about these guys early on. Bright struck out eight batters in five innings this week, but allowed three runs on eight hits. Pham’s start of four innings saw him allow two runs.
On the 40-man roster
- Seth Johnson (#10) – Four walks in two innings led to two runs. It’ll be nice if we can start to see some results from this prospect this year, because without them there won’t be much to believe in for potential.
High-A Aberdeen IronBirds
- Past week: 3-3 vs. Wilmington (Nationals)
- Coming week: at Hudson Valley (5-3, Yankees)
- Season record: 4-5, t-5th (two games back) of six teams in South Atlantic League North
The first three Orioles draft picks from last year are starting their seasons off with the IronBirds and those are the three guys most worth following here so far. This group includes hitters Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Mac Horvath as well as righty pitcher Jackson Baumeister.
Which is not to say that we should sleep on others, such as Creed Willems (#29) the overslot bonus guy from the 2021 draft class who’s needed time to adjust at each level before coming on strong. Willems bombed three homers this past week as part of a 6-17 explosion. I’d written him off after he scuffled with Delmarva in ‘22 and re-wrote him off after Aberdeen struggles in ‘23. I’m paying attention again, Creed, okay?
Less of a week to remember for Bradfield (5-22, though he did steal a pair of bases) or Horvath (1-15 with his own pair of steals). As for Baumeister, he made one start, allowing just one run as he walked three batters and struck out five over three innings.
Others of note
- OF Hudson Haskin (#25) – Starting his season on a rehab assignment; 3-14 this week, with five walks
- OF Matthew Etzel – 10th round pick from last year who’s been killing it in pro ball so far, including this past week – 7-20 hitting, a .959 OPS, three stolen bases
- RHP Juan Nuñez (#26) – One start and one relief outing added up to one run in 6.2 innings
- RHP Carter Baumler (#29) – Three runs in a 1.2 inning relief appearance, with three walks and no strikeouts. Not a good beginning for a Rule 5 decision season.
Aberdeen season-to-date stats.
Low-A Delmarva Shorebirds
- Past week: 1-5 vs. Salem Red Sox
- Coming week: at Down East (4-5, Rangers)
- Season record: 1-8, last place (seven games back) of six teams in Carolina League North
The pattern for the last couple of seasons that’s continuing into this season is that Delmarva’s roster to start out includes a lot of generally young guys who entered the organization as international amateur signings. Of the 12 teams in the Carolina League, the Shorebirds have the second-youngest group of hitters, with a weighted average age of just 20.1 years old. Perhaps it is connected to why they’re one of the worst-hitting teams so far at just a .550 OPS as a team.
Not that Shorebirds pitchers, who are collectively older than the league average (22 years vs. 21.7) are faring any better with a 5.35 ERA so far, compared to a league number of 4.20. Delmarva had the worst record of the four full-season affiliates a year ago and early on that’s tracking the same.
Just four of Pipeline’s top 30 Orioles prospects are here. If the Orioles have some good fortune, we might have some more interesting ones as the season goes along.
For now, here’s how things opened up: Outfielder Braylin Tavera (#13) batted 3-18 without any extra-base hits, with fellow OF Thomas Sosa (#22) taking a 2-18 where he struck out 11 times. Then there’s infielder Leandro Arias (#15) who also had a rough 2-16, though at least he walked three times and hit a homer. Arias came out of Saturday’s game early with what the team announced as leg discomfort, so hopefully he’ll be back soon.
Things went better for lefty pitcher Luis de León (#17), whose second start of the season took him through 3.2 innings where he allowed a run on two hits and two walks, with a hit batsman as well.
Others you may care about eventually
- LHP Riley Cooper – This 13th round pick got his first two outings of the year out of the way this week, striking out 10 batters in 6.1 innings with no walks allowed
- RHP Ty Weatherly – An undrafted free agent from last year pitched four scoreless innings for his season debut
Delmarva season-to-date stats.
**
Week one is in the books. For Norfolk, it’s been two weeks. Either way, the sample sizes are tiny. Anyone who’s struggling could turn things around before a “This guy’s not doing well” narrative starts to solidify. Anyone who got your attention early could fall back into the pack. Hot starts don’t mean much if they aren’t sustained. Whatever success the big league club has this year, there’s still going to be a lot that matters to the future happening on the Orioles farm.
It’s time for you to help make a serious choice, as we pick the first of many Orioles minor league player of the week winners here in this series. Will it be a top prospect everybody knows or a more obscure player? The choice is yours. Well, it’s also mine, because I decide who’s on the poll, but you know. Vote!