Other mocks think the Orioles will be part of a run on college hitters, possibly including UNC’s Vance Honeycutt.
In a year where the Orioles are bad, the draft is one of the most exciting things that Orioles fans get to experience. As bleak as things feel right now with the team’s July slump, we’re not to that point yet, and it’s a good thing too, because since the O’s weren’t bad last year, they’re picking at 22nd overall in this draft and the chance of picking a player who immediately makes you go, “Yeah, the Orioles picked that guy!” is almost nonexistent.
For the team to sustain MLB success beyond last year and this one, it’s going to be important to still get some value out of their first round picks now that they’re choosing later in the round. That value could be in getting someone who makes the Orioles and contributes, or in someone who shows enough prospect promise to be traded for a player who can fill a need for the O’s of a particular year.
Scouting experts who’ve been tracking drafts for years are not excited about this draft class as a group. The Athletic’s Keith Law said earlier this week that “this is a bad MLB draft class,” lacking both the kind of top-end talent that most draft classes have and depth in the form of lower-ceiling but higher-probability players who might come off the board in the first three or four rounds.
Even with this being the case, it is a near-certainty that some future good or great MLB player will be available to be taken by the time the Orioles are on the clock for #22 on Sunday night. They just have to make their best guess at who that is and then hope that luck and their development process work out.
There are four mainstream writers/publications who have updated their mock drafts in the last few days: Law, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, and Baseball America. A general consensus among these mocks is that there will be a bigger than usual group of college hitters taken in the first round. Will the Orioles be a part of that? Here’s how the writers see things shaking out for the O’s as of this week.
RHP Brody Brecht – University of Iowa
Two of these mock drafts – Pipeline and FanGraphs – have suggested that the Orioles will finally take a pitcher in the first round of the draft. Pipeline’s mocks have been linking the O’s to Brecht over many weeks. Since Mike Elias hasn’t made a first round pitching selection yet as GM, it would be interesting for that reason alone.
Brecht is a junior at Iowa, and until his sophomore year he was playing football there too. If I wanted to confuse people, I could have used a picture of him catching a pass as a wide receiver for this article. There are evaluators who really like him. Law rates him as #16 in the draft class; his mock sees the Blue Jays taking Brecht at #20 before the Orioles can get a piece. Law’s report on Brecht:
Brecht is a project as a pitcher with the upside to justify taking him in the first round despite his current flaws. He can hit 100 regularly as a starter and shows a plus slider that he throws more than the heater because he can land it more consistently and gets a ton of whiffs on it … Brecht is extremely athletic and should be able to make some big adjustments, which he’ll need to do, starting with his loose but long arm action to get him a delivery he can repeat.
College stats only matter so much because these guys will be facing tougher competition as pros. Brecht’s appeal can surely be seen in his strikeout rate – 14.7 K/9 in his draft year. Like many current Orioles pitching prospects, he walks too many dudes (5.6 BB/9). If the hitters they like are taken before they pick, the O’s might decide the upside is worth the risk.
BA’s mock has Brecht sliding to the Braves at #24.
OF Vance Honeycutt – University of North Carolina
Honeycutt is the mocked pick by BA, whose Carlos Collazo says of the possibility of the pick:
Honeycutt falling to them perhaps his collection of tools, athleticism and defensive profile is too good to pass up. Baltimore’s hitting development might be a dream scenario for Honeycutt as well.
It’s still weird that the Orioles reputation has changed so much with player development. FanGraphs, in writing about Brecht, also wrote about the O’s potential to “turn him into a monster.” Based on BA’s draft ranking, this would be a great value pick, as Honeycutt is their #13 player in the class.
The Orioles drafted UNC’s Mac Horvath in the second round last year, so they’ve probably been able to get a look at Honeycutt for a while. The 6’3” center fielder smashed 28 home runs in 62 games in his junior year and hit 65 homers across his college career. He was hitting bombs even as a freshman, which not every draft prospect does. The downside? He struck out 27.5% of the time this season. That would be troublesome at the MLB level. To already be there as an amateur is a definite risk.
Among these other mocks, Pipeline’s projects Honeycutt to the Mets at #19, while Law sees him sliding to the Phillies at #27 and FG thinks he’ll fall out of the first round entirely.
SS Kellon Lindsey – Hardee (FL) HS
We know that Elias loves up-the-middle players, so it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pick a shortstop, as Law mocked to the Orioles this week. In rating Lindsey as the #22 player in the class, he notes that:
Nobody wants to miss on the next Trea Turner, and Lindsey looks the part — it’s a similar build, 80 speed, good hands, a good right-handed swing, etc. … His pitch recognition definitely lags behind the rest of his game at the plate, however, as he has far less experience facing good pitching than just about all of his peers in this draft after he missed the showcase circuit last summer due to injury. … He’s a huge upside play with a ton of downside risk in the bat.
A common theme among all three of the mock selections in this article is that there is some downside risk but also some substantial upside. I think that’s a difference in how they approached the first rounder last year, as Enrique Bradfield Jr. wasn’t the same upside/risk play – his speed and defense made him less of a risk but his likely lack of power give him less upside too.
The mocks all expect Lindsey to be taken by some team in the 20s. FG sees him at #23 to the Dodgers, with Pipeline sending him to the Astros at #28 and BA puts him with the Diamondbacks at #29.
Earlier in the week, Camden Chat’s John Beers wrote about all three of Brecht, Honeycutt, and Lindsey in hopes of the Orioles potentially taking one of them.
The Pipeline and BA mocks also included picks through the end of the Competitive Balance Round A at pick #39. That covers the Orioles bonus draft pick at #32 that they got for Gunnar Henderson winning Rookie of the Year.
3B Tommy White – LSU
BA’s mock suggests White to the Orioles at #32, which in combination with their Honeycutt mock would be a big swing on power bats. I am just a guy who writes on a blog and doesn’t watch any amateur baseball. I only know what the experts write about them, and sometimes they’re wrong. That said, I’d flip out at a Honeycutt/White combo.
White has made some waves in the college ranks with his power since his freshman year, when people started calling him “Tommy Tanks” in the midst of his hitting 27 homers in 55 games while then at NC State. He transferred to LSU for his sophomore year and continued hitting homers, though he was never as prolific in the SEC schedule than he was in the ACC.
In contrast to Honeycutt, White hasn’t been striking out as much, just 12.1% of the time in his junior season. BA, which rates him as the #30 prospect in the class, sees some risk of White ending up at first base instead of third. If he’s going to hit the tanks, he can play there too. Law’s mock puts White to the Yankees at #26, Pipeline’s at #27 by Philadelphia, while FG sees him possibly sliding out of the first round.
SS Griff O’Ferrall – University of Virginia
Pipeline sees the O’s pairing the Brecht pick with a college hitter. O’Ferrall is the #38 prospect on that outlet’s ranking. They write of O’Ferrall:
While O’Ferrall doesn’t have any eye-popping tools, he gets every ounce out of his abilities thanks to plus instincts and makeup. He knows who he is as a hitter, with impressive bat-to-ball skills and an ability to work at-bats. He draws walks and gets on base, and while there isn’t a ton of impact or power, he has a very good feel for the barrel. He’s a tick-above-average runner, but is smart on the basepaths and can steal a base.
This report goes on to describe O’Ferrall as also being “greater than the sum of his parts in the infield.” That’s not a profile that’s going to generate a lot of hype, but a minor league system needs to mine some success out of guys like that too, if it can.
Law puts the shortstop at #32, criticizing a swing change that he made before his junior season that attempted to generate more power but didn’t really succeed:
He can still play above-average defense and at least continued to make contact at a high rate, striking out just 7.4 percent of the time this spring, so there’s at least some floor here for a team that takes him and tries to restore his old swing.
I would assume this player will turn out like 2018 Orioles draft pick Cadyn Grenier until he proved otherwise.