Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, and David Bednar have all received varying levels of trade buzz. The Orioles have the offensive firepower to get a deal done.
The Orioles made a surprise splash by signing the reigning Central League MVP out of Japan. Tomoyuki Sugano possesses an impressive resumé, but it’s difficult to project how Sugano will perform during his first year in Major League Baseball. It’s easy to see the upside, but there are no guarantees.
Corbin Burnes remains on the open market, but the Orioles appear hesitant to spend the cash required to get a deal done. Sugano should fit into Baltimore’s rotation, but there’s still room for improvement. Several free agents have already found homes, so Elias could turn to the trade market again this winter. Dylan Cease remains a viable target after Boston acquired Garrett Crochet, but there could be a few available options in Pittsburgh.
Starters Mitch Keller and Jared Jones do not fit the typical mold of starters on the trade block, but Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporters Andrew Destin and Noah Hiles shared last week that the Pirates were open to dealing either starter. Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherrington acknowledged that the Pirates could deal another starter “in theory,” while referring to the mound as an area of “strength and depth.” Pittsburgh dealt right-hander Luis Ortiz earlier in the offseason, but the club has Bubba Chandler waiting at Triple-A.
Jones served as the “two” in Pittsburgh’s one-two punch with Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes. The 23-year-old posted a 6-8 ERA with a 4.14 ERA during his rookie season. His 97 MPH fastball ranked in the top 10 percent of the league, and his 30.2 whiff percentage turned plenty of heads.
Jones will be arbitration eligible in 2027 and a free agent in 2030. It’s difficult to imagine a small market team like Pittsburgh parting with low-cost pitching talent, but the Pirates desperately need help at the plate. Pittsburgh ranked 24th in runs, 25th in homers, 27th in OPS, and 27th in strikeouts last season. Former top-pick Henry Davis has struggled to find his footing at the major-league level, and Oneil Cruz has yet to consistently achieve his potential.
The Pirates would likely demand MLB-ready prospects or cost controlled big leaguers with a plus hit tool. Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo both fit that mold. The Pirates acquired first baseman Spencer Horwitz in the Ortiz deal, but Ryan Mountcastle would offer 30-HR potential to a club desperate for thumpers in the middle of the lineup. Even Ramón Urías would qualify as an improvement after slashing .278/.343/.476 in the second half.
Jones seems unlikely due to his affordable years of club control, but Keller falls on the opposite end of the spectrum. Pittsburgh signed Keller to a five year, $77-million extension before last season. Keller went on to post an 11-12 record with a 4.14 ERA. The numbers do not jump off the page, but the Cedar Rapids product has earned praise for consistency early in his career.
Keller pitched to a 13-9 record while tossing 194 innings during an All-Star campaign in 2023. He posted a 3.91 ERA and 3.88 FIP over 160 innings in 2022, and overcame some initial struggles during his rookie season. His contract may feel significant in Pittsburgh, especially if they have any interest in retaining Skenes or Jones long term, but the four remaining years feel relatively affordable in today’s market.
Either starter would fit somewhere in Baltimore’s rotation, but there could be a deal to be done in the bullpen as well. The Orioles were linked to closer David Bednar in July, but a trade never materialized.
Bednar struggled last year after two consecutive All-Star seasons. Bednar led the league in saves with 39 in 2023, but he posted a 5.77 ERA and 1.422 WHIP over 62 games last season. Relievers are notoriously volatile, but Bednar could qualify as a change over scenery candidate.
Baltimore found modest success after acquiring Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto from Philadelphia last season, but the club moved on from Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe. The Orioles will have closer Félix Bautista back in the fold, but the O’s will likely take it easy on The Mountain in the first half.
Any potential deal would depend on how Pittsburgh views Bednar moving forward Do the Pirates still regard Bednar as one of the league’s top closers, or is the club ready to move on after a difficult 2024. Bednar could provide more value to the organization as a Pittsburgh native and fan favorite, but the team has failed to romanticize players in the past.
Burnes performed like a legitimate ace last season, and he won’t be replaced with only one man. If Baltimore declines to pay market value for that type of pitcher, it needs several talented players with upside. Jones, Keller and Bednar all qualify as candidates to help the Orioles in 2025.