One way or another, the Orioles will have to beat some other good AL teams to go farther this season than last
For most of the second half of last season, as the Orioles dueled the Rays for the AL East title, it felt to me like there was going to be an inevitable clash between these two teams in the postseason. They’d have to settle things again in a short series. How could anything else happen? As we know, it was not inevitable at all. The Rays were bounced in two games by the Rangers, a team that had not occasioned as much thought in Birdland. Texas went on to shred the Orioles in three games and win the World Series.
If the Orioles don’t repeat as AL East champions in 2024, they’re going to be dueling with other teams across the AL for a wild card spot. Even if they do repeat, they’re almost certainly going to have to go through a non-AL East team at some point to win. With other writers having previewed the division opponents throughout this week, I’m going to do a quick survey of potential rivals in the Central and West.
On the FanGraphs projected playoff odds with six days to go until the scheduled Orioles Opening Day, there are three teams in each of the other two AL divisions that have at least a 25% chance to make the postseason. Sorry not sorry to the Royals, White Sox, Angels, and Athletics. You did not make the cut. Maybe you can make like the 2023 Orioles and blast past the projections.
Minnesota Twins
- Last season: 87-75, 1st place
- Projected wins: 85 (FanGraphs) / 90 (PECOTA)
- Key subtractions: Sonny Gray (free agent), Kenta Maeda (free agent), Jorge Polanco (traded to Mariners), Nick Gordon (traded to Marlins)
- Key additions: Carlos Santana (free agent), Manuel Margot (acquired from Dodgers)
Last season was a successful one for the Twins. They finally ended a streak of postseason futility that dated, incredibly, back to 2004, when they lost three straight games after winning the first one of an LDS matchup against the Yankees. Less fun is that the inheritors of this streak are the Orioles, with a 2014 LCS sweep, 2016 wild card loss, and 2023 LDS sweep adding up to eight straight postseason losses. Minnesota finally breaking the streak did not grant it any “team of destiny” magic. They lost to the Astros in the LDS.
The Twins are one of the teams that’s put a big cut into its payroll from last season. A year ago, the team had an Opening Day payroll of roughly $154 million. Data at Cot’s Contracts shows that for 2024, the team is heading for an Opening Day payroll of about $122 million. That’s a cut of more than 20% since what they fielded a year ago. Perhaps they are looking to test the idea that they don’t have to spend to win what seems to be a weak Central division.
It’s a roster that has a number of players who have been great in the past who the Twins will need to be healthy and good in combination: Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa. Buxton played in only 85 games last year and had a sub-.300 OBP. Correa played, but had a below league-average bat. Lewis played in just 54 games and was on the injured list.
Detroit Tigers
- Last season: 78-84, 2nd place
- Projected wins: 79 (FanGraphs) / 75 (PECOTA)
- Key subtractions: Eduardo Rodriguez (opted out), Miguel Cabrera (retired)
- Key additions: Kenta Maeda (free agent), Jack Flaherty (free agent), Mark Canha (trade with Brewers), Gio Urshela (free agent)
Yes, that’s the same Jack Flaherty who had a 6.75 ERA after being acquired by the Orioles. This was no deterrent to his signing a one-year, $14 million deal with Detroit. Flaherty has pitched well in spring training so far. I’ll be a little offended if he’s good there.
This was a team with a disaster-level offense last season. They batted .236/.305/.382 as a team last year, which put them as the #13 OPS in the AL for 2023. That’s tough. A number of young guys underachieved, but so did old/expensive guys Cabrera and Javier Báez. They’re mostly going to be hoping that this year’s young guys don’t disappoint to the same degree. One part of that will be rookie third baseman Colt Keith, who got a pre-debut contract extension.
The Tigers are also going to need to find a way to replace what they lost from last year’s rotation when Rodriguez opted out and Michael Lorenzen was traded (3.58 ERA before July trade). Are Maeda and Flaherty up to that task? There are people who are very excited for Tarik Skubal, who started 15 games over the last half of the season and finished with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.896 WHIP. He’s never thrown 150 innings in a season, so nothing’s guaranteed.
Cleveland Guardians
- Last season: 76-86, 3rd place
- Projected wins: 79 (FanGraphs) / 83 (PECOTA)
- Key subtractions/additions: Almost nobody? Reliever swap with the Padres sent out Enyel de los Santos and brought back Scott Barlow
Cleveland has had some bad injury luck with young pitchers already. Gavin Williams, who had a solid debut season after arriving last June, was shut down a couple of weeks ago with elbow discomfort. It’s not been reported to be serious yet, but you never want to hear it for your team. The team also got some bad news about pitching prospect Daniel Espino – a top 100 guy – who missed all of last year already and had to get season-ending shoulder surgery before this season even began.
Even so, there’s the potential for a good rotation here. That probably depends on Shane Bieber staying healthy, Tanner Bibee avoiding a serious sophomore slump, and Williams returning before too long. The back end of the bullpen should be in good shape with Emmanuel Clase, too, although Clase’s run of elite seasons ended last year with a more pedestrian performance.
As far as the offense goes, they’re mostly running it back from last year. This was a contact-oriented group that had the fewest strikeouts of any AL team and also among the fewest walks. The contact was not for power: They had the fewest homers too. They haven’t done anything to change this! In particular, the outfield combined for 18 home runs across all three positions. How about you trade a reliever for Kyle Stowers?
Texas Rangers
- Last season: 90-72, 1st place (lost tiebreaker)
- Projected wins: 82 (FanGraphs) / 86 (PECOTA)
- Key subtractions: Jordan Montgomery (free agent), Will Smith (free agent), Aroldis Chapman (free agent), Mitch Garver (free agent)
- Key additions: Michael Lorenzen (free agent), David Robertson (free agent)
I hate the Rangers forever since they beat the 2023 Orioles in the postseason, but it’s not the kind of burning hatred I still feel for the 2014 Royals and everyone who was on the 2014 Royals. I’m just disappointed about how it turned out.
The projections don’t like the Rangers to repeat at the quality they did last year because the starting rotation isn’t looking as good. Postseason star Nathan Eovaldi only gets a 4.18 ERA projection; Dane Dunning, who finished with a 3.70 ERA last year, is projected for 4.47. Max Scherzer had herniated disc surgery in December and will miss at least a couple of months. Jacob deGrom won’t be back until August.
On the other hand, this team had a great offense, leading the AL in all of BA, OBP, and SLG, and everyone important is back, with top 10 prospects and probable AL Rookie of the Year contenders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford reinforcing it as soon as Opening Day. I really don’t get the FG 82 win projection for this team, even with the pitching issues that required the last-hour signing of Lorenzen.
Seattle Mariners
- Last season: 88-74, 3rd place
- Projected wins: 85 (FanGraphs) / 84 (PECOTA)
- Key subtractions: Teoscar Hernández (free agent), Eugenio Suárez (traded to Arizona), Jarred Kelenic (traded to Atlanta), Robbie Ray’s contract (traded to San Francisco)
- Key additions: Luis Urías (acquired from Boston), Jorge Polanco (acquired from Minnesota), Mitch Haniger (acquired from San Francisco)
After an offseason worth of GM Jerry Dipoto’s typical level of wheeling and dealing, the Mariners are coming into 2024 with nearly the same payroll as they had on Opening Day last year, about $135 million. That’s $2 million less than what they had a year ago. Seattle fans might have liked to see it go up by $10-15 million instead. That wasn’t in the cards.
Seattle had the best ERA of any AL team last year, a lot of which came from a starting rotation to envy. A top three trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert is to be envied, with a back end of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo that’s not too shabby either. Of these guys, only Castillo is older than 27. None of them will become a free agent until at least after the 2027 season. There is the potential for some impressive consistency.
On offense, Seattle had a problem that I think was similar to the Orioles, in that there were a number of pretty good hitters, hardly any bad ones, but no one who was anywhere close to being one of the league’s truly elite hitters. Their offseason moves don’t seem to have been made with the aim of bringing in such a player, and they don’t have any imminently-arriving prospects who figure to change that this season either. Still, they were one win shy of a wild card spot and two short of having part of their division lead. They don’t need much to get better to get into the postseason.
Houston Astros
- Last season: 90-72, 1st place (won tiebreaker)
- Projected wins: 91 (FanGraphs) / 95 (PECOTA)
- Key subtractions: Héctor Neris (free agent)
- Key additions: Josh Hader (free agent)
Unlike some of the other teams on this list, the Astros are not one that’s cut payroll since the start of last season. They went from a $180 million Opening Day payroll a year ago to $235 million as we head into this year. Much of the difference is the midseason addition of Justin Verlander added the offseason signing of Josh Hader.
Verlander is in the “a little bit behind other pitchers but not concerned” group, like John Means; he’ll be starting out on the injured list. Without him, the Astros have two reasonably sure things in the rotation – Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown (no relation) – and then some question marks. Pitchers like Cristian Javier and J.P. France project to at least be OK, but Houston fans will probably be hoping for better out of their starters, much like O’s fans are hoping for better than is projected from Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells.
In the above section on the Mariners, I mentioned a lack of truly elite hitters. Houston does not have this problem, with Yordan Álvarez and Jose Altuve both topping .900 OPS last year and Kyle Tucker at .886. Despite this, they had room to improve at four of the nine spots in the lineup. Two of these four have different players than what they ran out for most of last season. The team scored 827 runs and could have been better than it was. That’s scary.