BOSTON—The Orioles’ season isn’t even one-third complete, and it’s being declared over. Some fans think with 114 games left to play, there’s still time for the Orioles to be competitive.
Mathematically, it’s possible, but is there a realistic chance?
Let’s look at 2024. Last season, the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals, who swept the Orioles in the Wild Card Series, qualified for the postseason with 86-76 records.
The Orioles, who at 16-32 are on pace for a 54-108 record, would have to go 70-44, a .614 winning percentage to win 86 games. That would be difficult, but not impossible.
So far, the Orioles have won consecutive games only twice, and once in the same series–on April 16th-17th against Cleveland. That was one of only three series they’ve won.
Optimists like to cite the 2019 Washington Nationals, who were 19-31 through 50 games and went on a tear, winning 93 games, qualifying as a wild card, and ending the season as World Series champs. Those Nationals had Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer as starters, and the Orioles don’t have starters of that caliber.
Last season, the Tigers were eight games under .500, 55-63 on August 10th, and finished 31-13, and that hot play has carried over into this season.
Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told Orioles reporters in Milwaukee on Tuesday that he still thinks the season is salvageable.
There are some reasons for optimism. Andrew Kittredge has come off the injured list, and despite the recent struggles of Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano, the Orioles’ bullpen is stronger with Kittredge.
Colton Cowser is beginning his rehab assignment at High-A Aberdeen and, assuming his fractured left thumb has healed, he could come off the 60-day injured list in a week.
Jordan Westburg’s absence with his left hamstring strain has lasted longer than anyone thought. Westburg has been out since April 26th, but Elias thinks he could be back in early June.
Having a healthy Cowser and Westburg would strengthen the lineup. As for Tyler O’Neill, who’s on the 10-day injured list for the second time this season and the 16th time in his career, the Orioles will have to hope that when his left shoulder is healed, he’ll be able to stay healthy for extended period of time and provide the power the Orioles expected. O’Neill hit .313 with a 1.179 OPS against left-handers in 2024; this year, he’s just 2-for-23 (.087).
Starting pitching is a different story. Oriole starters have an unsightly 5.93 ERA. Kyle Gibson had a 16.76 ERA in four starts before his release on Tuesday.
Charlie Morton, who’s supposed to start again this weekend, has a 10.22 ERA in six starts. His 3.86 ERA as a reliever has earned him at least a temporary return to the rotation.
Of the other starters, only Tomoyuki Sugano and his 3.07 ERA has shown well.
Even Zach Eflin, the Orioles’ Opening Day starter, has struggled. In his last start, he equaled his career high by allowing eight runs, and his ERA is up to 5.08. Eflin missed more than a month with a lat strain, and he’s scheduled to pitch this weekend, too.
Cade Povich (5.23 ERA), and Dean Kremer (5.50) have pitched well at times but haven’t been consistent.
The eight runs the Orioles scored on Wednesday in Milwaukee, when they ended an eight-game losing streak, were the most they’ve scored since April 19th. Each time they win a game, their fanbase hopes it’s the start of a trend, but we’ve yet to see that.
There are some hopeful signs.
Jackson Holliday has hit in eight straight games, and has a .268 batting average with a .763 OPS. Ryan O’Hearn has a .306 average and .904 OPS, and while Cedric Mullins’ average is only .236, his 22 walks have helped boost his OPS to a robust. 804.
Adley Rutschman hit his first home run against a left-hander since last July 6th in Wednesday’s win, but he’s still hitting just .213 with a .659 OPS. Ryan Mountcastle, who’s had a hit in 16 of his past 18 games, is still hitting only .230 with a .590 OPS. Mountcastle has just three home runs since the 2024 All-Star break.
Note: High-A Aberdeen right-hander Teddy Sharkey had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow on Wednesday. The surgery, which the Orioles say was successful, was performed by Dr. Keith Meister in Arlington, Texas.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.