It’s going to be an eventful weekend in Baltimore as their first-place neighbors from the north visit Camden Yards.
The Orioles made a statement by winning their series against the Braves, but it only gets harder from here. The Birds’ next two series will pit them against the two best teams in baseball, the Phillies and Yankees. Fortunately, the Orioles themselves are the third best, so they’re better equipped than anyone to take the two behemoths down a peg.
First up is the Phillies, who head to Camden Yards for what’s sure to be an electric weekend of baseball. Saturday’s and Sunday’s games are already sellouts, thanks to the combination of a rejuvenated Orioles fan base along with what’s sure to be a sizable contingent of Phillies fans making the two-hour drive down I-95.
Philadelphia, at 46-22, boasts the best record in the NL and also the largest division lead, nine games ahead of the Braves. They’ve stood head and shoulders above an unremarkable National League where only five of 15 teams have a winning record. Just 12 of the Phillies’ 68 games have come against teams that are currently above .500, including their just completed-series in Boston, where they lost two of three.
The Phillies’ pitching has been superb. They lead the NL in ERA (3.08) and have allowed the fewest home runs in the majors (51). Their rotation is led by the two most valuable pitchers in the NL by FanGraphs WAR: Ranger Suárez and Zack Wheeler, both of whom will face the Orioles in this series. Their other two most-used starters, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez, also have ERAs of 3.07 or lower.
And in a change of pace from recent Phillies history, they actually have a good bullpen, too. Righty Jeff Hoffman and lefty Matt Strahm both boast sub-1.00 ERAs, each with a K/9 of 11.2 or better. Rookie righty Orion Kerkering, whose name sounds like a Hunger Games character, is close behind with a 1.19 mark. Closer José Alvarado is 12-for-14 in save attempts.
The Phillies’ offense, which ranks fourth in the majors in OBP (.330) and OPS (.740) is always a threat, even with injuries sidelining a few of their regulars (Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh, J.T. Realmuto). As usual, Bryce Harper has been a beast, slashing .282/.393/.533 with 15 homers. Third baseman Alec Bohm (.286/.341/.456) is putting up his best numbers since his rookie year in 2020, and of course Kyle Schwarber (13 homers, .780 OPS) is always a threat to launch a moon shot onto Eutaw Street.
If Craig Kimbrel pitches in this series, expect a chorus of boos to erupt from the Phillies fans who make the trip to Camden Yards. The veteran right-hander, last year’s Phillies closer, became public enemy number one after his costly postseason stumbles contributed to the Phils’ shocking NLCS loss to Arizona. Kimbrel nailing down a save or two for the Orioles this weekend would be a good way to silence his hecklers. Or maybe they would boo even louder. Either way, I’d be happy to find out.
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 PM, MASN
LHP Ranger Suárez (10-1, 1.81) vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (2-0, 2.62)
There will be no soft landings here. Immediately after getting shut down by Atlanta’s Reynaldo López, the NL’s ERA leader, the Orioles next have to face Suárez, who ranks second in that category. Every Suárez start this year has been a near-guaranteed win for the Phillies, who are 12-1 in his outings. Suárez’s 10 wins lead the majors, and they weren’t flukes, either. The left-hander has delivered eight quality starts in his 13 outings. Just once has he allowed more than three runs, and the only time he failed to finish five innings is when he took a line drive off his hand June 1. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning and he’s been stingy with baserunners, posting a league-best 0.854 WHIP.
The Orioles will counter with an impressive hurler of their own in Bradish, the fourth-place finisher in the AL Cy Young vote last year. After getting a couple extra days of rest before his most recent start, Bradish came out firing against the Rays, pitching six inning magnificent innings of shutout ball. He retired 18 batters in a row after a leadoff infield hit, and as our Andrea SK wrote, the right-hander looks better than ever.
This exact Suárez vs. Bradish matchup happened last July 26 in Philadelphia. The O’s plated four runs off Suárez, including an Adley Rutschman three-run homer, but the Phillies got the last laugh with a go-ahead homer off Bradish in the seventh.
Game 2: Saturday, 4:05 PM, MASN, MLB Network (out-of-market)
RHP Taijuan Walker (3-1, 5.40) vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (7-2, 3.27)
The middle game of the series may represent the Orioles’ best chance of scoring some runs, with Walker as the mediocre filling of the Suárez-Wheeler sandwich. The veteran right-hander, in his second year with the Phillies, started his season late because of right shoulder soreness that sidelined him for nearly all of April. He hasn’t quite found a groove in his eight starts since. Walker, like Suárez, also had to leave a game early after getting struck by a comebacker. Phillies pitchers are just baseball magnets, apparently. Walker, too, faced the Orioles in that series at Citizens Bank Park last year, holding them to two runs in 5.2 innings in an eventual Phillies win.
Rodriguez’s most recent start in Tampa Bay was mostly brilliant but ended with a thud. He dazzled with five perfect innings, threatening to one-up Bradish, but it fell apart swiftly in the sixth when he gave up a walk and two hits and couldn’t get out of the inning. He’ll look to replicate that dominant performance against the Phillies, but hopefully get a little further in the game this time. The only current Phillie who has ever faced Grayson is utility man Whit Merrifield, who’s 0-for-6 against him.
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 PM, MASN
RHP Zack Wheeler (8-3, 2.16) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (7-2, 2.08)
I must admit I’m surprised that the Orioles aren’t starting Burnes until the series finale. If he were to start Saturday on regular rest, then he’d be lined up to pitch in the huge three-game set at Yankee Stadium next week. Instead, by holding him back until Sunday, he’ll miss the Yanks entirely. I suppose the O’s just want their ace to have the extra day of rest, and they feel confident that their other starters can hold their own against the Yankees. They might not be wrong.
Perhaps the Orioles just wanted to set up an epic showdown between two bona fide aces in Wheeler and Burnes, one of the best pitching matchups you’ll see in MLB all season. It was Burnes who edged out Wheeler for the NL Cy Young in 2021 in one of the closest votes in the award’s history (each had 12 first-place votes). Burnes led the league that year in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.63), and K/9 (12.6), but Wheeler threw nearly 50 more innings than Burnes, racking up a league-leading 213.1 frames, 247 strikeouts, and 7.5 bWAR to Burnes’s 5.3. Let’s just agree that they’re both really, really good.
That certainly hasn’t changed this year. Wheeler’s 2.16 ERA through 14 starts is the best of his already sterling career, and he’s allowing a minuscule 5.6 H/9 and less than one baserunner per inning. Burnes has been almost exactly as dominant, with a 178 ERA+ (to Wheeler’s 187) and a 1.004 WHIP. This feels like the kind of game where you could easily see a scoreless tie in the eighth inning. It very well could be the bullpens that decide this game, which, in my opinion, does not favor the Orioles, who have struggled to find a capable late-inning lefty in Danny Coulombe’s absence.