I’m not going to sugarcoat it: there are a lot of question marks
A strength of the 2023 Orioles was their bullpen, which ranked second in MLB by fWAR. By that mark, only the Los Angeles Dodgers were better. Unfortunately for the 2024 Orioles, the bulk of that value came from Félix Bautista. He and Yennier Cano held the Orioles afloat, a fact that was on obvious display last year on days when neither pitcher was available.
This year, to our great sadness, Bautista is nowhere to be found. Cano and Danny Coulombe, who made up most of the non-Bautista WAR last year, aren’t locks to repeat their performances. There are a lot of question marks in the bullpen overall, one that makes a person a lot less confident than they were going into 2023.
But even so, GM Mike Elias has proven himself shrewd when it comes to finding value out of nowhere. He found Cano, who had no major league success before coming to Baltimore. Coulombe was a late add, purchased by the Orioles from the Twins on March 27, 2023. He may strike magic again during the season.
This year’s bullpen will look very familiar to Orioles fans as just one player is new to the organization. The rest have been with the team in some capacity in recent years, from stalwarts to frequent riders of the Norfolk shuttle.
The Free Agent: Craig Kimbrel (RHP)
With Bautista out of commission for the full season due to elbow surgery, the Orioles needed someone to take his place in the bullpen. No one can truly fill his shoes; what he did last year was incredible. But Elias made his best effort by signing Craig Kimbrel, a potential future Hall of Famer.
2024 marks Kimbrel’s 15th year in MLB. He’ll turn 36 years old in May, making him the oldest player on the Orioles’ roster. He’s got the pedigree. 417 career saves with an ERA+ of 171. Nine all-star games. 30 games of postseason experience. He’s the real deal. The question is, how much does he have left in the tank?
No one is going to confuse 2024 Kimbrel with the guy who led the league in saves for four straight seasons over a decade ago. But he is still an effective late-inning reliever who should be able to convert most save opportunities thrown his way. Just don’t ask Phillies fans about him.
High-leverage options: Yennier Cano (RHP), Danny Coulombe (LHP), and Dillon Tate (RHP)
Any three of these pitchers could operate as a setup man for Kimbrel or even possibly take over as closer if Kimbrel struggles badly or becomes injured. This is especially true for Cano who has earned the right to be the next man up.
Dan Szymborski says about Cano in his recent FanGraphs story ranking bullpens (Orioles come in 28th – ouch) that his decrease in walks from last year appears to be legit, and as such could cement his place as the real deal. Last year was a dream for Cano, who started the season by going nine games without allowing a hit and 17 games without allowing a run. But while he was dominant, he did hit a few patches of trouble in June and July before bouncing back for a strong end to the season.
As for Coulombe, I felt weird putting him in the high-leverage category but the truth is he earned it last year. The lefty appeared in 61 games and combined a good strikeout rate, 27.6%, with a good ground ball rate, 43.7%. It was easily his best season of the nine he has appeared in, which doesn’t generally bode well. Did he improve in a repeatable way, or will he go the way of so many relief pitchers who had one good year?
And then there is Dillon Tate. When last we saw Tate in the regular season, he had put together a strong season in 2022, the best of his four years with the team. He spent all of last season injured but is by all accounts ready to go. In 2022 he had a 3.06 ERA, a bit high for a relief pitcher, but sported a WHIP of just under 1 and an impressive ground ball rate 59.7%. A return to those numbers and a healthy Tate would do wonders for this bullpen.
The Last Chance Gang: Keegan Akin (LHP), Mike Baumann (RHP), Jacob Webb (RHP), and Cionel Pérez (LHP)
Just one of these players, Keegan Akin, has an option remaining. The rest of the lot have none even though they are the ones you might most want to send down on a trip to Norfolk. If all four are on the team at the end of the year I will be surprised.
It’s easy enough for me to forget that Keegan Akin exists. 2022 was the first year he went full bullpen, previously the Orioles had tried him as a starter. That year was pretty good for him and it seemed like maybe he had a future in relieving. But 2023 was very rough. He put up a 6.85 ERA in 24 games before a lower back injury put him out of commission for the rest of the season. But he had a very nice spring training, allowing just one hit and one walk in 6 games. I have no idea what to expect from Akin but I don’t have a lot of faith.
Speaking of not a lot of faith, Mike Baumann. Do you remember that he made 60 appearances for the Orioles last year? Hard to believe. Less than half of those appearances were considered average or above-average leverage, which makes sense when you see that he walked 4.6 per nine innings and had a WHIP over 1.3. Like Akin, Baumann had a nice spring training. I’m hoping for the best for Big Mike.
I mentioned earlier that Mike Elias is pretty good at pulling pitchers out of nowhere, and it appeared last year that he did just with Jacob Webb. Webb was claimed off waivers from the Angels on August 7th and early returns were great. He put up a lot of zeroes on the scoreboard despite walking 10 batters in 22 innings pitched. He then fell apart in the playoffs, giving up two home runs in two games. Terrible timing.
Remember 2022 Cionel Pérez? He was incredible. Unfortunately, that didn’t translate very well into 2023. The first two months of the season were very tough for Pérez. In 24 games he allowed an opponent OPS of .948. That’s awful. His final four months, which included 41 games, were much improved. Batters hit just .202/.308/.210 against him in that span. He was very good at keeping the ball in the park, too. He gave up just two home runs in the season and both came in the same game.
Of all the pitchers in this section, I have the most faith in Pérez. But if he begins this season as poorly as he began 2023, it will be hard to justify keeping him around as the Orioles try to contend.
The Minors Guys
There aren’t too many pitchers to get excited about who could come up from the minors. On the 40-man roster there is Bryan Baker, Jonathan Heasley, Matt Krook, Kaleb Ort, Nick Vespi, and Bruce Zimmermann. If none of those names excites you, that makes two of us.
Big Wandisson Charles, who isn’t on the 40-man but who has big talent, could make a push this year. He ended last year with Triple-A Norfolk and could be worth keeping an eye on.