The Orioles need starting pitching and with Dylan Cease firmly in the forefront of trade rumors, it feels like a perfect match. Currently, though, the differing views of Cease’s value appear to have halted negotiations.
Orioles Prefer Keeping Top Talent Over Trading for Dylan Cease
Many have long believed that Cease would not start the 2025 season with the Padres. There has also been a sense that the Orioles would sign a top starter in free agency. However, following their inability (or unwillingness) to secure an ace after losing Corbin Burnes, they had to resort to the trade market. Cease isn’t regarded as an ace by many, but he did have an exceptional 2024 in San Diego. Over 189 innings and 33 starts, he pitched to a 3.47 ERA, with his underlying stats pointing towards him potentially being even better.
With all rentals, though, value can be hard to settle. According to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports, “The Padres checked on Samuel Basallo, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo, but those players weren’t on the table”. This is understandable from the Orioles point of view, especially considering they were able to keep hold of all three in the Burnes trade last offseason. One year from Cease has value, just not that much. Kubato also states that he thinks “a trade is gonna happen for a starting pitcher”, with Cease being the only name he mentions.
HISTORY!
The final out from Dylan Cease’s no-hitter. pic.twitter.com/FwZsNoTS6S
— MLB (@MLB) July 25, 2024
Why do the Orioles need Cease?
Despite not signing a top starter in free agency, the Orioles did add experience to bulk out their rotation. NPB veteran Tomoyuki Sugano will pitch in his rookie season at 35, signing a one-year $13 million contract. The Orioles also added 41-year-old Charlie Morton on a one-year, $15 million deal. However, the team primarily signed both pitchers as innings eaters, leaving Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez to likely serve as the one-two punch at the top of the rotation.
The projections aren’t friendly, with no starter projected to pitch below a 3.70 ERA. Another reason why Cease is such an attractive option for Orioles front office. His contract is affordable, too, at $13.75 million. An argument against Cease is the Orioles lack of left-handed starters. Cade Povich and Trevor Rodgers are their two options, both of whom had an ERA over 4.90. Povich was a rookie last year, though, and projections expect him to be effective next year. That’s both starting and out of the ballpen.
What would the Padres do if they traded Cease?
Ownership has dominated the headlines this offseason in San Diego, leading to very few major leaguers being added. After missing out on Roki Sasaki due to the instabilities, it felt less likely that Cease could feasibly be traded. In fact, unless the Padres can add a starter at all it is unlikely Cease will leave San Diego.
Fortunately, there are still options, most notably Nick Pivetta and Andrew Heaney. Heaney would be an especially good option for another rotation lacking left-handed pitching. However, any free-agent signing still hinges on ownership’s willingness to spend and the player’s interest in signing—especially with Heaney expected to land a two-year deal.
Main Photo Credits: Chadd Cady-Imagn Images
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