During the 2024 season, the Orioles had an ace No. 1 pitcher. They enter the 2025 season without one.
There was no one-for-one replacement for right-hander Corbin Burnes. He signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the O’s didn’t sign another ace. It doesn’t mean they can’t win, and maybe win big.
Consider that without Burnes in 2023, the Orioles won 101 games. With him in 2024, they won 91.
But Burnes gave the Orioles everything they had hoped for. He pitched 194 innings with an ERA of 2.92, a 1.096 WHIP, and they went 20-12 in his 32 starts. He hit a speed bump in August and then pitched to an ERA of 1.29 in his last six starts, followed by a playoff start in which he gave up one run over eight innings. The Orioles envisioned Burnes pitching deep into October, but their offense didn’t provide any support.
Now comes life after Burnes.
To replace him it will take a village, or at least an entire roster. The O’s added 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano to the starting rotation. No one is saying they are Burnes’ replacement. The O’s hope they get middle- to back-end-type rotation performances from them, and that they eat innings. There is value in pitching at or near league average in a rotation and providing 150 or more innings.
But maybe the Orioles can replace Burnes in the aggregate. Or come close to it, with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez leading the way.
Last year, Eflin made nine starts after his trade to the Orioles. Rodriguez made 20 before he was lost to an injury. The hope is to have Eflin and Rodriguez on the field all year and turn those combined 29 starts into 60 or 65 this season. That would help offset Burnes’ departure.
Rodriguez, over his past 33 big league starts since July 17th, 2023, is 18-6 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has a 45.7 groundball rate and the team is 21-12 (.636) in those 33 starts. In 2024, Kansas City’s Cole Ragans posted an ERA of 3.14 and WHIP of 1.14 – just a bit better than Rodriguez in those 33 games – and he finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting.
Eflin was sixth in the 2023 Cy Young vote for Tampa Bay. That year, over 178 innings, he posted a 3.50 ERA. He pitched better than that for Baltimore in the smaller sample last year.
The Yankees have Gerrit Cole and Max Fried as their top two, and we can’t say the O’s duo is better than that. Boston now has Garrett Crochet as its No. 1. The O’s can’t match that, but if they can get close with their dynamic duo fronting their rotation, they could stay in the hunt all year in the chase for the AL East title.