Five of the top ten prospects have appeared with the MLB team so far this season.
Before this season began, the Orioles had what many outlets recognized as the #1 farm system in baseball. At one prospect site, MLB Pipeline, they were on a streak of six straight rankings (counting preseason and midseason updates) as the top farm system.
That particular streak will probably not continue any farther. Players who have graduated from prospect status (130 AB for hitters, 50 IP for pitchers, 45 days on the MLB roster for either) no longer count towards the rankings. Others may soon be traded, depending on who Mike Elias likes out of the available players on other teams. The Orioles draft class being headlined by a late first round pick is probably not going to be enough to immediately change this trajectory.
With minor leagues having taken off for the MLB All-Star break, instead of the usual Tuesday weekly update, I’m looking back at the season-long performance of each of my composite top 20 Orioles prospects from before the season to see in brief how each of them has done so far.
As ever, it’s important to keep in mind that a given season’s minor league performance is not how the team will be judging these prospects, nor how teams who might want to acquire them in trades will fully judge them. For those of us on the outside, whatever rough snapshot is offered by “How has this guy done this year?” is the best we can do.
#1 – Jackson Holliday
- Age: 20
- Season stats, AAA: .281/.448/.500 with 10 HR, 8 SB in 67 games
- Season stats, MLB: .059/.111/.059 in 10 games
What a journey he’s had this year. Most recently he dealt with some elbow inflammation that had him on the injured list for a while and DHing only for a little while. He’s back in the field and looks like he might be ready for another chance at MLB as soon as the Orioles give it to him. Holliday’s first couple of weeks were rocky, so much so that it seems that some fans are now ready to have the O’s trade him. I’m still driving the hype train.
#2 – Samuel Basallo
- Age: 19
- Season stats, AA: .273/.334/.441 with 12 HR in 78 games
Basallo did not catch for the first month this season while rehabbing a stress fracture in his elbow. Even now, he’s only played 30 games behind the dish. He’s got amazing batting numbers for a 19-year-old at Double-A. He’s nearly five years younger than the average competition. They just aren’t as completely dominating as what the guy just above on the list, or the next one below. Untouchable in trade talks for me but realistically, he’s not helping this year and probably not next either when considering the likely needed catcher development to come.
#3 – Coby Mayo
- Age: 22
- Season stats, AAA: .297/.376/.591 with 19 HR in 68 games
Something like half of all prospect writers think that Mayo should end up in right field because he’ll have a strong arm but not the agility to handle third base. The Orioles have yet to show any sign that they believe this, because Mayo has not played even one inning in the outfield. As for his hitting: Wow. The fractured rib didn’t interrupt his great performance. Imagining this power added to an already-potent O’s lineup is exciting. They just have to make room for him on the roster.
#4 – Colton Cowser
- Age: 24
- Season stats, MLB: .225/.313/.431 (114 OPS+) with 13 HR in 91 games
Is anyone happier than the Orioles promotions department that fans latched on to mooing at Cowser and bringing cow-themed apparel to the stadium? The only rookie to make the O’s Opening Day roster had a great April and has been below average at the plate since then. There are a lot of strikeouts. Even with three months of batting slump, he’s performing well on defense, getting good marks in the metrics for left field.
#5 – Heston Kjerstad
- Age: 25
- Season stats, AAA: .301/.397/.601 with 16 HR in 56 games
- Season stats, MLB: .296/.406/.500 with 3 HR in 23 games
Yet another guy who was clearly so far ahead of the minor league competition but with not a lot of clarity about how the Orioles would make room for him. They’ve gotten him onto the team now, if not in the starting lineup as much as fans might like. He has already established the big league power. Never looks graceful making plays in left field but he’s yet to have any high-profile fails out there either.
#6 – Enrique Bradfield Jr.
- Age: 22
- Season stats, A+: .281/.351/.378 with 3 HR, 48 SB in 65 games
The Orioles have gotten the as-advertised package from Bradfield. He’s fast, he plays great defense (the prospect writers say,) he maintains a good batting average and walks enough to keep a good OBP too. There’s just no power in there. Will the lack of it hurt him? Is he in fact good enough at the other stuff to make up for it? I’ll be curious to see how he handles Double-A and then Triple-A pitching before I make up my mind about that.
#7 – Connor Norby
- Age: 24
- Season stats, AAA: .297/.389/.519 with 16 HR, 13 SB in 80 games
- Season stats, MLB: .214/.214/.429 with 1 HR in 4 games
We’re seven prospects into this list and this is the fourth guy who’s got fans impatient to see more of him. No wonder why after looking at those Triple-A numbers. Norby doesn’t have as many fans of his defense among the prospect writers, and his hitting isn’t as elite as the guys above him, but this is a guy who’s clearly ready for regular MLB time, just stuck in an organization that’s loaded at any position he might play.
#8 – Dylan Beavers
- Age: 22
- Season stats, AA: .236/.330/.399 with 9 HR, 18 SB in 77 games
Beavers! He’s played all three outfield spots for Bowie this year and a little bit of first base as well. Beavers rocked Aberdeen and then Bowie a year ago, but starting out at the Double-A level this year, that’s where he’s stayed, with his batting average plummeting and the OBP/SLG lines falling accordingly. I think he needs to turn some of his strikeouts (roughly 24% rate) into hits to keep his prospect stock on a definite future big league trajectory.
#9 – Cade Povich
- Age: 24
- Season stats, AAA: 12 G, 57.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.110 WHIP
- Season stats, MLB: 7 G, 33 IP, 6.27 ERA, 1.545 WHIP
For essentially every Orioles pitching prospect you could name at any level right now, the question is: Can he cut the walks enough to make good things happen? Povich slashed the walk rate for Norfolk and I think that’s why we saw him before the player below him on this list. Now he’s got to do the same against big league competition. Early results aren’t good. I think once, or if, he manages to get a put away pitch against MLBers, he’ll do fine. For now, his strikeout rate has dropped a lot compared to Norfolk.
#10 – Chayce McDermott
- Age: 25
- Season stats, AAA: 20 G, 91 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.429 WHIP
54 walks in 91 innings. That’s the number for me. The Orioles have had McDermott throw 85+ pitches in most of his outings this year and he’s still averaging fewer than five innings per start because of pitch efficiency problems. The strikeout rate is there, and he’s doing a good job of getting batters out when they make contact. It’s just that too many are getting on for free.
#11 – Seth Johnson
- Age: 25
- Season stats, AA: 17 G, 61 IP, 2.66 ERA, 1.361 WHIP
Johnson was relatively new to pitching when the Rays drafted him in 2019, then the pandemic got thrown in there, and then in 2022 he needed Tommy John surgery, which the Orioles knew when they traded for him. It’s been about two years since that surgery now and Johnson’s still got some of the pre-surgery prospect stock. I don’t know what to make of how slow the team has worked his recovery. The walk rate is up nearly 50% from his pre-surgery best and the strikeout rate is down by about the same amount. He’s yet to throw even 70 pitches in a start.
#12 – Mac Horvath
- Age: 23
- Season stats, A+: .236/.330/.429 with 9 HR, 24 SB in 68 games
Orioles fans were absolutely spoiled by the first 2-3 Mike Elias drafts. It just doesn’t always go that way. Horvath was their second rounder a year ago. He’s hitting well enough in what’s generally a tough home park to not write him off, but not well enough to launch onto top 100 lists. Playing mostly third base for now, though there seems to be a belief he’ll end up in the outfield corners. There’s a good power/speed combination in his pro results to date.
#13 – Luis de León
- Age: 21
- Season stats, A: 7 G, 28 IP, 2.25 ERA, 0.964 WHIP
- Season stats, A+: 10 G, 34.1 IP, 6.03 ERA, 1.660 WHIP
When the Orioles promoted de León from Delmarva to Aberdeen, I was interested to see how he’d do. The next level has challenged him and if he was on a conveyer belt, that’s halted. Still fairly young, there’s time for this 6’3” lefty to develop; even while struggling with Aberdeen, he’s struck out 39 batters in 34.1 innings. Maybe it’s really bad luck, with a .374 BABIP at High-A. Scouting reports indicate he can hit 98 on the fastball and with work could have a solid three-pitch mix.
#14 – Jud Fabian
- Age: 23
- Season stats, AA: .234/.313/.423 with 13 HR in 76 games
At least one prospect writer (The Athletic’s Keith Law) had given up on Fabian entirely before this season. It is safe to say that the anticipated strikeout issues from his amateur days have cropped up at Bowie. Between last year and this year, Fabian has struck out in nearly one-third of all plate appearances. The Orioles don’t have to rush him, and if he can hit for the kind of power he did in college and the lower minors, there will be a role somewhere. Continues to get good marks for center field defense.
#15 (tied) – Jackson Baumeister
- Age: 22
- Season stats, A+: 18 G, 70.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.358 WHIP
Does he walk too many dudes? Yes. Baumeister with a 5.5 BB/9 in his first full season as a pro hasn’t hurt him much yet in the ERA column. This 6’4” righty is holding batters to a .210 average against him and he has struck out almost 30% of all batters faced. When they do get hits, it’s not going over the fence, with just three homers allowed all year. Interesting early results for Elias’s highest-drafted pitcher to date.
#15 (tied) – Braylin Tavera
- Age: 19
- Season stats, A: .159/.276/.201 with 0 HR in 47 games
After Basallo launched into the prospect stratosphere a year ago, I was interested to see if the Orioles could repeat that kind of thing with their international amateurs regularly. Tavera was the big-dollar signing one year after Basallo. Full-season ball has been a tough adjustment and he missed time with a shoulder problem on top of that. We’ll see what next year brings.
#15 (tied) – Max Wagner
- Age: 22
- Season stats, AA: .109/.208/.156 with 1 HR in 19 games
Due to multiple injured list stints, Wagner has only gotten into 19 games at his appropriate level, Bowie, this season. He’s been on the IL now for about a month. Unless he finds his way back into action and starts hitting a lot of dingers, he’ll probably fall into the big mass of players from whom nothing much is expected.
#18 – Leandro Arias
- Age: 19
- Season stats, A: .205/.322/.295 with 2 HR in 51 games
Strikeouts certainly aren’t the problem for this young switch-hitting infielder. He missed about a month with an injury, and from the time he returned in late May to the end of June, he was on fire. That’s dropped off in July, leaving his season numbers as you see. With a 13% walk rate, there seems to be a decent batting eye here. Before the season, Law wrote, “he’ll have to get stronger to keep his average up.” We can see that comment in action in this batting line.
#19 – Luis Almeyda
- Age: 18
- Season stats, FCL: .199/.335/.318 with 5 HR, 11 SB in 51 games
Another seven-figure Orioles signing who can remind us they won’t all be Basallo-level guys who race to MLB. Almeyda was hurt and didn’t play a lot in the Dominican last summer, but the Orioles brought him to the US rookie league anyway. After scuffling for two months, he’s come on strong in July (.869 OPS), which will hopefully give him something to carry forward to next season.
#20 – Justin Armbruester
- Age: 25
- Season stats, AAA: 19 G, 78 IP, 7.38 ERA, 1.577 WHIP
Some guys just have to prove it at every level because most people don’t believe they can do it. Armbruester proved it at Delmarva, at Aberdeen, and at Bowie, winning some fans among O’s prospect-watchers. He’s not proving it at Norfolk, suffering command problems that haven’t hit him at any of his previous levels, with worsening home run issues. This is the Rule 5 draft decision year for him and he hasn’t given the Orioles much reason to protect him.
One unranked guy at each level who I’m giving an up arrow
Norfolk: Billy Cook (25) – He’s played every infield position except shortstop and all three outfield positions. He’s now OPSing over .800 at Triple-A. This guy was a senior sign in 2021, meaning almost nothing was expected from him, and right now he looks like at least a mildly intriguing late bloomer, possibly a super-utility kind of guy.
Bowie: Matthew Etzel (22) – A tenth round pick a year ago, this outfielder made it to Double-A before the first rounder Bradfield did. Not rocking at Bowie to the same degree he was at Aberdeen, with just a .733 OPS through 21 games. Enough to get my curiosity, if not yet my attention.
Aberdeen: Michael Forret (20) – 14th round pick out of junior college a year ago who the Orioles gave a modest overslot bonus. He quickly conquered Delmarva but has found High-A a bit tougher. Even so, he’s struck out a third of batters at the level.
Delmarva: Aron Estrada (19) – The Carolina League as a whole has a .660 OPS. Estrada, the best-performing Shorebirds batter, sits at .798 when he’s more than a year and a half younger than the average competition. Switch-hitter who’s played a lot of second base and shortstop and a little of all three outfield positions and has stolen 27 bases.
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If this article did not mention a prospect you like, tell us about how he’s done this year in the comments below.