The Orioles have three of the top 11, and none from 12-100.
A few years ago, the Orioles at the major league level were a team constantly performing in a miserable way, loaded up with players who were nothing more than placeholders until the seeds that Mike Elias was planting in the farm system could grow into players to help the team win. Starting with Adley Rutschman’s arrival two years ago, fans have seen that plan take shape and achieve success, even if it doesn’t always feel like it right after watching a stupid loss or two in a row.
The work of building the talent pipeline has been accomplished. What’s left now is to keep that pipeline flowing enough to supplement the major league roster, either by additions of prospects in place of players who hit free agency or as trade pieces to bring in useful players who will keep the good times rolling. This work never ends, because no MLB roster is so talented and fortunate in its injury and service time luck that you go years without needing some help from the farm.
By this point in the season, prospect rankings that were worked on over the last offseason and posted in January or February are half a year out of date. Some players start to show that they might be able to live up to some of the expected promise. Others perform in such a way that the scouts start to wonder if they were wrong to believe so much in these guys. Organizations have had new arrivals in the form of January international signings and July draft picks and trades.
This week, MLB Pipeline put out its updated top 100 rankings and team top 30 rankings reflecting everything that’s happened so far this year. Not surprisingly, there have been some big shakeups among the Orioles prospect rankings as the year has gone along. In particular, the O’s are down to just three top 100 prospects on a list where, before the 2023 season, they had eight guys listed.
The Top 100 guys
- IF Jackson Holliday (#1)
- IF Coby Mayo (#10)
- C Samuel Basallo (#11)
Three guys in the top 11 is a big positive, especially with two of them currently in the majors and the third in Double-A. This is a trio that should be having a positive impact on the franchise’s MLB-level fortunes very soon. Holliday’s looking like he’s already doing this now that he’s back for his second major league stint. Mayo might need a little minor league reset just as Holliday did. Basallo, who just turned 20 literally yesterday, is OPSing over .800 for Bowie to remain one of the most exciting prospects in baseball.
Nobody else in the top 100 below them is a little discouraging. (You can find other updated rankings that include one or both of Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott in the bottom parts of a top 100; FanGraphs has McDermott at #84 and Povich at #93.) With so many relatively-inexperienced players forming the core of the MLB roster, it’s not an urgent need to have another wave of prospects right now, but Orioles fans know from the experience of the franchise starting in 2017 that there will come a time when it starts to hurt if you have no help coming.
Graduated to the majors
These are players from the preseason rankings who have lost their prospect status by virtue of reaching thresholds for MLB at-bats (130), innings pitched (50), or simply days on the major league roster (45).
- OF Colton Cowser (was: #3 in system, #19 in MLB)
- OF Heston Kjerstad (was: #5 in system, #32 in MLB)
Cowser is a strong contender for the AL Rookie of the Year award based on performance to date, and the current betting favorite to end up as the winner after the season. Kjerstad was thriving for a couple of weeks until he was hit in the head by a pitch by the Yankees just before the All-Star break. He’s starting a rehab assignment this week.
It’s a good thing to have prospects graduate to the majors. Players who’ve arrived last year and this year will hopefully be helping the Orioles succeed for five or six seasons.
Traded away from the organization
- IF/OF Connor Norby (was: #7, now Marlins #4)
- RHP Seth Johnson (was: #11, now Phillies #15)
- IF/OF Mac Horvath (was: #12, now Rays #20)
- RHP Jackson Baumeister (was: #19, now Rays #19)
The Orioles also traded Billy Cook and Matthew Etzel, neither of whom were on this ranking at the start of the season but who likely would have been by now. The seemingly-super utility guy Cook is #24 in the Pirates system, while Etzel is #25 on the Rays ranking. If you want to count the February trade for Corbin Burnes too, the O’s also traded Pipeline’s #63 overall prospect in Joey Ortiz this year.
My concern about these trades isn’t so much whether the Orioles miss the prospects as whether the guys they acquire are actually a help to the team’s fortunes. So far, Trevor Rogers (traded for Norby and post-prospect Kyle Stowers) and Gregory Soto (traded for Johnson and a younger pitching prospect) have flopped. Zach Eflin, who cost Horvath, Baumeister, and Etzel, is looking much better in the early returns.
New to the organization
- OF Vance Honeycutt (#4, 2024 draft)
- IF Griff O’Ferrall (#9, 2024 draft)
- OF Stiven Martinez (#12, international amateur)
- C/IF Ethan Anderson (#15, 2024 draft)
- RHP Patrick Reilly (#16, traded for Cook)
- OF Austin Overn (#19, 2024 draft)
- IF Emilio Sanchez (#24, international amateur)
- RHP Esteban Mejia (#26, international amateur)
One thing I’ll say about MLB Pipeline’s rankings, after a long time observing them, is that there’s always a dose of recency bias with the most recent draft picks in particular. Sometimes, that involves guys who really have some big question marks jumping over players who’ve already proved themselves at multiple minor league levels. A more realistic assessment of the 2024 picks might be Baseball America’s updated Orioles top 30, where Honeycutt is 7th, O’Ferrall is 15th, Anderson 22nd, and Overn 28th.
The fresh international amateur signings aren’t immune from this phenomenon either. Martinez received a $950,000 bonus this past January and has done well for himself in his age 16 season in the Dominican Summer League. I hope that he’s on the way to being the next Orioles international signing success story.
Big moves up
These guys all jumped by at least seven spots from where they were on the preseason list.
- RHP Juan Nuñez (was: #27, now #10)
- LHP Luis De León (was: #18, now #11)
- OF Thomas Sosa (was: #23, now #16)
- RHP Michael Forret (was: unranked, now #20)
- RHP Brandon Young (was: unranked, now #21)
The Orioles are in need of having some new pitchers emerge as prospects, given the current state of the MLB rotation and the likelihood of it not having Burnes next year in addition to the right now problems.
The team traded away Johnson and Baumeister, not that either of these guys looked like a 2025 big league option to me. The Orioles have also yet to see higher-ranked Elias-acquired guys like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott establish themselves in MLB roles or even, in McDermott’s case, demonstrate Triple-A success.
The arms listed above all have showed promise in different ways as the season has gone along, though only Young, at Triple-A, seems like he could help within the next year or so. Young, a 6’6” righty, was recently mentioned by Elias as a consideration for a late-season 2024 callup.
Big moves down
These guys all dropped by at least seven spots from where they were on the preseason list.
- IF Leandro Arias (was: #16, now #23)
- IF Max Wagner (was: #15, now #25)
- IF Luis Almeyda (was: #20, now unranked)
- RHP Justin Armbruester (was: #21, now unranked)
- OF John Rhodes (was: #25, now unranked)
The Orioles just promoted Arias from Low-A Delmarva to High-A Aberdeen, so they don’t seem like they’re down on him, at least. Almeyda, the seven-figure bonus signing from last year, is still young and not to be abandoned yet, but he definitely didn’t launch as some others have done.
The remainder of these guys are not all that young now and have stalled at their current levels. That’s the un-fun reality lurking behind all prospect lists: They’re not all going to make it.
**
The Orioles have what has been regarded as the best farm system in baseball for a while now. That hadn’t changed even as of these midseason updates. Baseball America still had the O’s at #1 when they did their own adjustments, since in addition to Holliday still having prospect status, they also included Kjerstad among the top prospects.
This streak at the top is nearly certainly to come to an end for next year’s preseason lists, when Holliday, I can only assume, will be graduated out of the prospect mix. Mayo might be, too, although with how he’s looked, it seems like he’s headed for some more minor league time soon.
The Orioles have not unearthed a new top 100 prospect since drafting Holliday with the #1 pick in 2022. Their later draft picks in that draft, as well as their picks in the next two drafts, have not jumped onto the lists. That’s something to be aware of today, but not a cause for panic yet. If some of the new 2024 arrivals can push themselves into that conversation, or if some of the 2024 big movers can continue their upward trajectory, the pipeline will be fine.